NRFI Best Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Predictions and Picks for August 11

Happy Tuesday! You’ve found my best MLB NRFI and YRFI picks for August 11 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. We have one game where the matchup and conditions point to early offense, plus two NRFI bets with nice prices and pitchers who can set the tone right away.

The Best NRFI/YRFI Bets for Tuesday, August 11

• YRFI: Mariners at Yankees -105 (Yankee Stadium – 7:05 p.m. ET)
• NRFI: Orioles at Twins +105 (Target Field – 7:40 p.m. ET)
• NRFI: Red Sox at Blue Jays -135 (Rogers Centre – 7:07 p.m. ET)

YRFI Best Bet: Mariners at Yankees

• THE PICK: Yes Run 1st Inning (-105)

We’ll start in the Bronx, where the Yankees host the Mariners at Yankee Stadium at 7:05 p.m. ET. Ryan Weathers is set to take the ball for New York against Seattle’s Bryan Woo, and I like a YRFI in this one.

Weathers has been very good lately, but anytime the Mariners are on the road, I’m interested in looking at them offensively. Since the beginning of July, Seattle ranks 11th in weighted runs created plus against left-handed pitching, and this is a major park upgrade for its hitters.

T-Mobile Park ranks dead last in Baseball Savant’s rolling three-year park factor by a considerable margin, while Yankee Stadium sits 11th. Temperatures should land in the mid-80s, too, so the Mariners are getting a far better hitting environment than they’re accustomed to at home.

On the other side, Woo’s home-road splits are pretty unbelievable. He has been exceptional in Seattle, posting a 1.96 ERA with opponents hitting just .164 across more than 60 home innings. On the road, though, his ERA balloons to 6.71 and opponents are hitting .300.

The advanced numbers show the same story. Woo owns a 3.18 xFIP at home compared to a 4.20 mark on the road. He’s striking out roughly 8% fewer hitters away from Seattle, while his home run rate rises from 0.56 homers per nine innings at home to 1.29 on the road.

Of course, park factors are a major part of that equation, but there is something very sticky about these extreme splits. Woo has also allowed 11 earned runs over 22 first innings this season, while Weathers has given up 14 earned runs in 22 opening frames. Neither mark is particularly encouraging for a NRFI.

The Yankees haven’t been a juggernaut at the plate lately, but the weather, Woo’s road fly-ball issues, and the huge park downgrade point toward some early offense. Hopefully the top of New York’s order, especially the lefties, can make some noise.

NRFI Pick Today: Orioles at Twins

• THE PICK: No Run 1st Inning (+105)

Next, we’ll move to Target Field, where the Twins host the Orioles at 7:40 p.m. ET. We can grab a NRFI at +105 on Hard Rock Bet, and I’m willing to take a stab at that price.

Bailey Ober is scheduled to take the hill for Minnesota against Baltimore’s Brandon Young. I can’t sit here and pretend Ober is an elite starting pitcher. He profiles slightly below league average, doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters, and does not keep the ball on the ground.

But he also avoids free passes and does a solid job of suppressing hard contact. More importantly, he gets a Baltimore lineup that has not been hitting much of anybody. The Orioles have struggled all year, and things have not improved over the summer.

Both the Orioles and Twins rank outside the top 20 in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since July 1 and also in a smaller data set since the beginning of August. In every relevant recent sample, these offenses have been pretty bad against righties.

Ober has also been solid in the first inning, allowing just five earned runs over 17 opening frames. That comes out to a 2.65 ERA, with opponents hitting only .210 against him in the first. That bodes well against an anemic Baltimore offense.

Young has not been nearly as sharp in the first inning, but the Twins have been poor offensively overall, and he does bring a 3.43 ERA into this one.

There will be volatility here, as there always is in a first-inning bet, but this is a pair of struggling offenses at a number better than even money. I’ll take the price.

August 11 NRFI Prediction: Red Sox at Blue Jays

• THE PICK: No Run 1st Inning (-135)

Finally, we’ll head north of the border as the Blue Jays host the Red Sox at Rogers Centre at 7:07 p.m. ET. Dylan Cease gets the ball for Toronto against Boston’s Patrick Sandoval, and we can find a NRFI at -135 on Hard Rock Bet.

The juice is warranted here. Sandoval is not an elite arm, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. He has been erratic throughout his career: when he’s good, he can look really good, but his bad outings have been ugly.

Fortunately, he gets a Toronto offense that has been absolutely terrible against left-handed pitching over the summer. The Blue Jays rank 28th in wRC+ against southpaws in August, and they have been dead last in that category since July 1.

Toronto has hit just .205 against lefties in that stretch with a microscopic .076 ISO. That is about as little power as you can show, and it should make Sandoval’s first inning significantly easier.

Then we get Cease on the other side. The Red Sox have been grease-fire hot over the last month or so, but it is always nice having an ace on your side in a NRFI bet. Cease has been excellent in the first inning this season, posting a 2.57 ERA with six earned runs allowed and 31 strikeouts in 21 opening frames.

His Baseball Savant page is about as good as you will see. Cease ranks in the 99th percentile in strikeout rate, 96th percentile in whiff rate, 96th percentile in expected batting average, and 95th percentile in expected ERA. He has truly taken another leap and put things together in his age-30 season.

With Toronto’s struggles against lefties helping Sandoval and Cease capable of neutralizing a surging Boston lineup, I think -135 is a very fair price.

Good luck Tuesday!