Happy Friday! We’ve got a nice mix of first-inning bets on today’s MLB slate, including one NRFI picks and two YRFI plays on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s break down the best NRFI bets for May 29!
NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today for Friday, May 29
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Angels at Rays NRFI (Tropicana Field – 7:10 p.m. ET)
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Red Sox at Guardians YRFI (Progressive Field – 7:10 p.m. ET)
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Giants at Rockies YRFI (Coors Field – 8:40 p.m. ET)
NRFI Pick: Angels at Rays
- The Pick: No Run First Inning (-130)
We’ll start in Tampa, where Nick Martinez takes the mound against the Angels’ Walbert Urena for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Tropicana Field.
Martinez has been sensational this season with a 1.51 ERA, but he’s been especially dominant in the first inning. In fact, he’s been a goldmine for NRFI picks.
Martinez has thrown 10 first innings this year without allowing a single run — just seven hits and eight strikeouts across those frames. The Angels also carry one of the highest strikeout rates in the league, and having free swingers early in the game can bail a pitcher out of trouble quickly.
On the flip side, Urena is one of the Angels’ top prospects, and he’s pitching like it. Since entering the rotation, he ranks in the 69th percentile in chase rate and the 71st percentile in whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant. That’s critical against a Tampa Bay team that makes a lot of contact, as Urena has the swing-and-miss stuff to punch back.
He does issue some free passes, but when hitters are making contact against him, it’s typically soft and on the ground. He ranks in the 78th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 82nd percentile in ground-ball rate. As a converted reliever still building his gas tank, Urena has been spotless in the first inning — seven first innings, two hits, one walk, zero earned runs.
Neither pitcher will be perfect forever, but at -130 on Hard Rock Bet, this is a fair price for two arms who have been exceptional at the beginning of games this season. This one is my favorite NRFI pick today.
YRFI Pick: Red Sox at Guardians
- The Pick: Yes Run First Inning (-110)
Next, we’ll head to Progressive Field in Cleveland for a 7:10 p.m. ET matchup. Hitting temperatures are solid across the country today, and I think we’re getting a generous price on a YRFI here.
According to MLB.com, southpaw Tyler Samaniego appears to be opening for the Red Sox. He’s been effective with a sparkling 1.04 ERA this season, but the Guardians’ top of the order is a brutal draw.
The emergence of former top draft pick Travis Bazzana, who has been slotted into the leadoff spot, has injected more life into this lineup. He’s riding a five-game hitting streak that includes two multi-hit games and two doubles in his last outing against the Nationals.
Following Bazzana in the order are Jose Ramírez and breakout youngster Chase DeLauter. Suddenly, Cleveland has three very tough outs at the top of the order.
On the other side, Slade Cecconi pitches for Cleveland and has been a below-average arm with a 4.71 expected ERA. He’s been particularly brutal in the opening frame, yielding 14 hits and seven earned runs in 11 first innings this year.
Boston ranks toward the bottom of the league in first-inning scoring, which is likely why this line sits at just -110. But the Red Sox bats have woken up over the last two weeks, ranking seventh in baseball in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
We have several variables trending in a positive direction, and the most important part is an extremely fair price at -110 on Hard Rock Bet.
YRFI Pick: Giants at Rockies
- The Pick: Yes Run First Inning (-135)
We’ll close at Coors Field for an 8:40 p.m. ET first pitch, and the juice is fair when you consider the environment. Temperatures are projected to be in the high 70s with a slight breeze blowing out, which is exactly what you want for early offense.
Michael Lorenzen takes the hill for Colorado, and he’s simply not a good Major League pitcher at this point. His luck has finally run out in 2026, and it’s hard to believe he actually threw a no-hitter a few years ago.
Anyway, Lorenzen’s 2026 numbers are ugly: a 7.21 ERA, a 5.88 expected ERA, and he ranks in just the second percentile in expected batting average, according to Baseball Savant. He’s giving up a near-50% hard-hit rate while striking out just 15% of hitters and ranking no better than the 16th percentile in either whiff rate or chase rate.
Lorenzen has also been terrible in the first inning, specifically, allowing 14 hits and nine earned runs across 11 first innings this season. Anytime you can get the San Francisco Giants away from Oracle Park and into Coors Field against a bottom-of-the-barrel starter, it’s a massive bump to their bats.
On the other side, Logan Webb has been surprisingly disappointing to start the season. His ERA is north of 5.00, with a .280 expected batting average against and a hard-hit rate near 50%. He does rank in the 96th percentile in ground-ball rate, which is keeping things together somewhat, but at Coors Field’s elevation, even ground-ball pitchers can run into trouble.
When you zoom out, you have great hitting weather at arguably the best park in baseball for runs, with two pitchers who simply aren’t performing well right now. At -135, I think this price is warranted.
Those are my best NRFI and YRFI picks for Friday. Good luck!
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