The NFL is back for Week 2, and Thursday night gives us a game that should have no shortage of points as the Lions head to Buffalo. I have a few touchdown props I like for Lions vs. Bills, then some bonus touchdown picks for the rest of the Sunday slate.
There is a full buffet of anytime touchdown props and first touchdown scorer options on the board. Let’s get into my best NFL touchdown bets for Week 2!
All odds via Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook and subject to change.
Best Touchdown Bets for Lions vs. Bills on TNF
The Bills played zone coverage at a ridiculous rate last week – north of 80%, one of the highest marks in football – and Jim Leonhard leaned heavily on zone and two-high looks in Week 1. Of course, things can change from week to week, but I think that makes the Detroit side of this matchup really interesting:
Lions vs. Bills TD Prediction: Sam LaPorta (+225)
Sam LaPorta is my favorite anytime touchdown bet for Thursday night.
The Lions have an endless number of talent offensively, including Jameson Williams. He dominated the air-yards department last week, and I think he’s in store for a huge year.
But when we isolate the Lions’ pass catchers against zone coverage since the beginning of last year, the difference between Williams and the underneath guys is pretty notable.
Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 2.67 yards per route run against zone, while LaPorta was right behind him at 2.45. Williams checked in at 1.90. The fantasy-points-per-route-run numbers point the same way: St. Brown averaged 0.53, LaPorta 0.51, and Williams 0.35.
That does not mean Williams cannot score. He absolutely can. But I am mostly using a process-of-elimination approach to narrow the Detroit touchdown pool. The Bills’ two-high tendencies are more likely to funnel targets toward St. Brown and LaPorta underneath than create a bunch of downfield chances for Williams.
Detroit’s 2025 target-share splits against defenses when they ran both zone and two-high looks simultaneously tell a similar story. St. Brown had a 26% target share, LaPorta had 22%, and Williams was at 13%.
St. Brown is in a smash spot, but he is +100 to score anytime. For me, LaPorta’s anytime TD price is just way more appealing. He is also priced behind Williams, and I honestly think LaPorta is the better touchdown play in this particular matchup compared to Jameson.
Houston moved the ball surprisingly well against Buffalo last week, and I think Detroit can put points on the board here. Give me LaPorta anytime at +225.
LaPorta is also +1600 to score the first touchdown. That is a true sprinkle, but I think it is a really nice number. It would not surprise me if ASB scored and went crazy in this game, so I’ll use him in some parlays as well. But as far as a straight bet, per price, it’s Big Sam for me.
Lions vs. Bills TD Prediction: Keon Coleman (+400)
Keon Coleman is the long-shot anytime TD dart I am looking at on the Buffalo side.
The Bills had a lot of explosive plays last week, so the red-zone sample was limited. Buffalo ran only two snaps inside the 10-yard line, and Coleman was not out there for either one. But the more useful sample may be inside the 20: Coleman played six of Buffalo’s eight snaps there, tied for the team lead with Dalton Kincaid.
That is what makes Coleman interesting at +400. His role was a question heading into the year, but he was immediately involved in the high-value part of the field. He may not be the safest anytime scorer on the board, but this is not a normal 4-1 touchdown dart.
Coleman has the size to win in the red zone, and Buffalo is expected to score. If the Bills are inside the 20, I think he has a better chance than his number implies.
Coleman is also +2250 to score first. That is an absolute pizza-money sprinkle, but he is the type of player I want to consider at a number that big. He was one of four Buffalo pass catchers to play six of eight snaps inside the 20 in Week 1, so the opportunity is at least plausible.
Lions vs. Bills TD Prediction: Dalton Kincaid (+170)
Dalton Kincaid is another Bills pass catcher I want exposure to in what should be a shootout.
Josh Allen spread the football around in Week 1, with Kincaid posting a modest 20% target share alongside DJ Moore and Khalil Shakir. But Kincaid’s 28% air-yards share was strong, and the playing time is the biggest reason I am interested.
Kincaid ran a route on 65% of Buffalo’s dropbacks and led the Bills’ pass catchers with a 76% snap share. Playing time was always the biggest issue with Kincaid, so that is a huge step in the right direction.
He played six of Buffalo’s eight snaps inside the 20-yard line, tied with Coleman for the lead. He was also on the field for one of the Bills’ two plays inside the 10.
The +170 anytime TD price is playable in a high-scoring environment, while +1100 to score first is a worthwhile sprinkle. This is a game where I am happy to buy some stock in the Buffalo passing game.
Again, St. Brown is also clearly live at +100 for anytime TD, but I would rather attack him in the yardage market than pay a short touchdown price. He remains a strong first touchdown candidate if you want some exposure to Detroit’s top target, but I would rather use LaPorta as the primary touchdown play at much better odds.
Best NFL Week 2 Touchdown Bets
Let’s take a look at some touchdown picks for Sunday’s slate.
Browns vs. Buccaneers TD Prediction: Cade Otton (+250)
Cade Otton virtually did not leave the field in Week 1, playing 98% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps. That is enough by itself to get my attention on a tight end at +250.
The role was there near the goal line too. Otton played eight of the Buccaneers’ nine snaps inside the 20 and two of three snaps inside the 10. He also essentially tied for the team lead in first-read rate, which tells us Baker Mayfield was looking his way early and often.
Cleveland was atrocious on both sides of the football last week, and Tampa Bay enters as a heavy favorite. The Buccaneers are expected to score some points, and Otton has the type of every-down role we love to see from a touchdown prop.
At +250, he is one of my favorite Sunday touchdown looks at this price.
Saints vs. Ravens TD Prediction: Mark Andrews (+115)
Mark Andrews does not have the sexiest price on the board, but he is in a great spot.
Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are always going to demand attention near the goal line, and that is the main reason Andrews is not a bigger favorite. But Baltimore carries a massive implied team total against New Orleans, and Andrews was on the field constantly when the Ravens got into scoring territory in Week 1.
He played nine of Baltimore’s 11 snaps inside the 20, six of eight inside the 10, and all four snaps inside the 5-yard line.
Normally, I do not love laying close to even money on an anytime touchdown. But there are spots where you can live with it, and this is one. Andrews is going to score eventually, and this looks like an excellent chance for it to happen.
Jaguars vs. Broncos TD Prediction: Trevor Lawrence (+325)
Trevor Lawrence is my quarterback rushing touchdown dart for the Sunday slate.
I do not expect Denver to be as much of a mess as it was last week, but athletic quarterbacks can still find success against this defense. Patrick Mahomes cashed a similar rushing touchdown angle against Denver on Monday night, and Lawrence is capable of doing the same thing at +325.
Lawrence scrambled 43 times last season and added seven designed quarterback runs in 2025.
Denver blitzed at a top-five rate last season, and that aggressive style can create rushing lanes for mobile quarterbacks. If the Broncos continue to bring pressure, Lawrence should have chances to escape and make something happen with his legs.
Denver was around league average in EPA allowed on opposing quarterback scrambles last season, but plenty of quarterbacks still managed to produce rushing value against it.
Lawrence does not have to run all over Denver for this to work. He needs one red-zone keeper, one scramble near the goal line, or one designed run in a competitive game.
Dolphins vs. 49ers TD Prediction: Deebo Samuel (+210)
The 49ers are massive favorites against Miami, so they should have plenty of scoring opportunities against a porous Dolphins defense.
The injury to De’Zhaun Stribling should condense San Francisco’s target tree a bit more, which makes me more confident in the team’s core pass catchers. Deebo Samuel is a Swiss Army knife, and Kyle Shanahan knows exactly how to use him.
Deebo saw three targets inside the 20-yard line last week. At +210, you are getting a wide receiver who has the ability to steal a carry or two near the goal line, catch a quick screen, or simply just win in the red zone.
The matchup is great, the game script should cooperate, and the potential for extra target concentration makes Deebo one of my favorite plays outside Thursday night. Most importantly, the price is awesome.
Just to reiterate, these aren’t the most likely players to score, but obviously, price and risk play a big part in these selections. You won’t find me firing at any -200 guys to score during the year. Good luck with all of your Week 2 touchdown bets and parlays.
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