NFL Touchdown Predictions: Best TD Bets for Steelers vs. Browns on TNF

We’re already into Week 4, and we have a fun Thursday night AFC North matchup to get the slate started. While it seems like an ugly matchup at first glance, I found a few touchdown picks offering some very nice value.

I’m looking at a workhorse running back for Thursday night, a massive long shot on the Browns’ side, and two value plays for Sunday’s action.

Let’s get into my favorite touchdown picks for Thursday Night Football and Week 4 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

The Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 4

• Jaylen Warren -110 Anytime TD
• Jerry Jeudy +900 Anytime TD
• Rachaad White +300 Anytime TD
• Michael Wilson +195 Anytime TD

All referenced odds are subject to change.

Thursday Night TD Pick: Jaylen Warren (-110)

We’ll start with the Thursday night game, where Jaylen Warren is in a great spot against the Browns.

Rico Dowdle has been ruled out, and Warren should once again operate as the clear lead back for Pittsburgh. That was the case last week, when Warren played 90% of the Steelers’ offensive snaps without Dowdle in the lineup. He didn’t reach even a 70% snap share in any game last season, so this is a completely different type of workload.

Warren had a monster game last week, and Pittsburgh doesn’t have many other trustworthy options in the backfield on a short week, so I expect another heavy workload.

The Browns’ run defense hasn’t been nearly as strong without Myles Garrett. They are allowing more than two yards before contact per attempt, which means opposing running backs are getting a chance to build momentum before defenders even reach them.

Warren is an explosive player, he can score as both a runner and receiver, and he should dominate the high-value touches with Dowdle unavailable.

At -110, I think this is a more than reasonable price for a player who could push for 20 touches again.

TNF Long Shot: Jerry Jeudy (+900)

Now, we’ll head to the Cleveland side, where Jerry Jeudy is worth a look as a big long shot at +900.

I understand why the number is this high. The Browns have not been an explosive offense, and Jeudy has just five targets through three weeks. That is obviously not the type of volume we normally want from a touchdown candidate.

But the situational usage is much more encouraging than the box score.

Jeudy has played more than 60% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps and has a 73% route share. He played only 51% of the overall snaps last week, but he remained involved on passing downs. More importantly, he has played 18 of Cleveland’s 23 offensive snaps inside the 20-yard line.

That puts him just one snap behind Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion, and Harold Fannin among Cleveland’s skill players inside the 20.

Jeudy has also played every Browns snap inside the 10-yard line. That is the type of role I want to target at a massive number. He may not be out there for 90% of the total snaps, but he has maintained a 75% snap share on passing plays and is consistently involved when the Browns get close.

Deshaun Watson has been…dare I say…serviceable lately, and Jeudy is still a talented player who can win outside. He has lined up wide on more than 70% of his routes this season, and both teams have allowed a decent rate of targets to receivers aligned on the perimeter.

Jeudy has a real path to a red-zone target, and he has more than enough talent to turn one catch into a touchdown.

Colts vs. Commanders TD Prediction: Rachaad White (+300)

Rachaad White is another player who looks priced too low at +300 in the Commanders’ London matchup with the Colts.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt has played more overall snaps and handled more work between the 20s, but White has been the better situational back in the red zone.

Through three weeks, Croskey-Merritt has played just three of Washington’s 16 snaps inside the 10-yard line. White has played 10 of those 16 snaps. The gap gets even larger closer to the goal line: Croskey-Merritt has played one of nine snaps inside the 5, while White has played six.

White also found the end zone last week, catching a six-yard touchdown from Marcus Mariota.

The matchup is favorable too. Washington leads the league in zone-run concept rushing plays under first-year offensive coordinator David Blough, and Indianapolis has struggled against those runs.

The Colts have allowed the fifth-highest success rate against zone runs and are giving up 5.49 yards per carry against that concept.

Croskey-Merritt can absolutely have a strong game, but White is the player I want for touchdowns. If the Commanders get near the goal line, he has a clear path to the high-equity touches.

At +300, White is a strong anytime touchdown play. I also do not mind a small sprinkle on his +1600 first touchdown price, given how frequently he has been deployed close to the goal line.

Sunday TD Prop: Michael Wilson (+195)

Finally, I’m looking at Michael Wilson in the Cardinals’ road matchup with the Giants.

Wilson got paid this offseason, and he has quickly become one of Arizona’s most important offensive players. He simply does not come off the field.

He owns a 25% target share and a massive 42% air-yard share through three weeks. That is an excellent combination for a touchdown bet because it gives him both volume and big-play potential.

Wilson has played all 36 Arizona snaps inside the 20-yard line this season. He has also been on the field for all nine snaps inside the 5.

That is exactly the usage we want to see.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has been the subject of trade speculation, and his effort has not consistently shown up on tape. Kendrick Bourne has been used at a nearly equal rate, which has made the Cardinals’ target tree much clearer.

Trey McBride and Wilson are the featured pass catchers. Wilson’s red-zone participation, target share, and downfield role give him multiple paths to score against a Giants defense that has been vulnerable early in the season.

At +195, I think this is a really nice price for a player who is commanding targets, working downfield, and playing every meaningful snap close to the end zone.

Good luck with all of your Week 4 touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these longer-odds props – we are getting nice numbers for a reason.

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