NCAA Tourney Odds & Futures: Line Movement & Notable Tickets Ahead of the Last 16

The first two rounds of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament have come and gone with 64 teams dwindling to just the final sixteen. With the field now cut down to a manageable size, I wanted to sort through the data here at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, highlighting odds changes after the first two rounds as well as pinpointing a championship future to keep an eye on for each remaining team.

Let’s start with the favorites and work our way down.

#1 Michigan

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +350
• Current Championship Odds: +300 (current favorite)

Michigan entered the 2026 tournament as a top seed and one of the favorites. They enter the second weekend of the tournament as a top seed and the favorite at +300. Michigan knocked off Howard in the first round, and then breezed past #9 Saint Louis in the second round by a comfortable 23 point margin. Next up? #4-seed Alabama on Friday night in Chicago.

Michigan NCAA Tourney futures to watch

One bettor on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook is currently sitting on a $3,000 Michigan National Championship ticket, placed back on December 6th. The Wolverines had just mauled a feeble Rutgers squad by 41 in their Big Ten opener and the bettor pounced at +750. If they win the tournament that’s a $25,500 payday.

I’m also keeping an eye on the bettors that took Michigan early in the season with odds as high as +2000. In fact, Hard Rock Bet had a player toss $375 on the Wolverines at +2000 back on November 27th… but their sweat actually ended back in January with an early cashout… for $562. Was it the right move?

#1 Arizona

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +375
• Current Championship Odds: +325

Arizona also looked impressive in the opening rounds of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, blowing past Long Island University by 34, and then #9 Utah State by 12. The road gets a lot tougher for the Wildcats though, with John Calipari and the SEC Champion Arkansas Razorbacks up next on Thursday night in San Jose. Arizona will become the first Men’s NCAA College Basketball National Champion from the West Coast in nearly 30 years if they can string together just four more wins.

Arizona NCAA Tourney future to watch

Respect where it’s due. Our future to watch here comes from a savvy bettor that locked in the Wildcats at +3000 back on November 7th with a sizable $750 championship wager. If they do win it all, that’s a total return of $23,250.

#1 Duke

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +325
• Current Championship Odds: +450

Duke survived a legitimate scare from 16-seed Siena in the first round, overcoming a double-digit deficit and eventually winning by six. The Blue Devils again started slow against TCU in the second round, leading by just four at half – but rediscovered their form after the break, outscoring the Horned Frogs by 19 in the second. They’re currently the third-favorite to win the tournament as they prepare to face St. John’s in Washington, DC on Friday evening.

Duke NCAA Tourney future to watch

This one might actually be my favorite ticket on the list… this bet is great.

Placed on June 6th, 2025 — yes, 290+ days ago — the bettor in question concocted a gigantic parlay spanning multiple sports – from the NHL, to NFL, to MLB… and of course, college basketball. The ticket is comprised of an assortment of player props from games near to the June 6th date, but also includes several that wouldn’t resolve for a long time. Keep in mind there’s several NFL wagers here that were more than 3 months out at the time the bet was placed.

1. Cody Bellinger over 0.5 hits (Yanks/Red Sox Game) ✅
2. Pete Alonso over 1.5 total bases (Rockies/Mets Game) ✅
3. Florida Panthers moneyline over the Edmonton Oilers in a Stanley Cup Finals game ✅
4. Steelers moneyline over the Jets in the NFL ✅
5. Commanders moneyline over the Giants ✅
6. Alex Caruso over 2.5 made threes in a Finals game against the Pacers ✅
7. T.J. McConnell over 0.5 first quarter assists in a Finals game ✅
8. Bennedict Mathurin over 7.5 points in an NBA Finals game ✅
9. The Tulane Green Waves football team to win the American Athletic Conference Championship ✅
10. The Dallas Cowboys to beat the Washington Commanders in regular season NFL ✅
11. Finally… The Duke Blue Devils to win the 2025/2026 NCAA Basketball National Championship

That’s ten up, ten down, just one to go. If Duke wins the tournament, this bettor turns $15 into $229,812.

#2 Houston

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +1000
• Current Championship Odds: +700

Houston are rolling. They smashed both Idaho in Round 1 by 31, and ran it back with another 31 point win over Texas A&M in Round 2.  The runner-up in last year’s tournament, the Cougars seem like they’re on a mission. Next up? #3 Illinois in front of a home crowd at the Toyota Center in Houston.

Houston NCAA Tourney future to watch

Should we do another parlay? Let’s do another parlay. A bettor in Illinois placed a $10 Bonus Bet to win $13,726 if Houston wins the National Championship. The full ticket? It’s impressive.

1. Clemson moneyline over South Carolina in college football ✅
2. Chris Brazzell II anytime TD (Tennessee vs Vanderbilt) ✅
3. Deion Burks anytime TD (Oklahoma vs LSU) ✅
4. Alabama moneyline over Auburn college football ✅
5. Brock Bowers anytime TD (NFL – Chargers vs Raiders) ✅
6. Buffalo Bills moneyline vs the Pittsburgh Steelers ✅
7. Houston College Basketball National Championship

#2 Purdue

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +2500
• Current Championship Odds: +1200

Purdue are a team to watch. They cruised through the Big Ten Tournament, defeating top-seed Michigan in the process. They beat #15-seed Queens by 33 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and then stifled Miami 79-69 to book their ticket to the third round. Plus, their next game is against #11-seed Texas – the lowest ranked team remaining in the tourney.

Purdue NCAA Tournament futures to watch

I’m watching two fun bets riding on Purdue to cut down the nets. The first is a straight bet at 40-1 on the Boilermakers to win it all. $100 returns $4,100 – placed at just the right time. Purdue had just suffered back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Ohio State, and their title odds bottomed out at +4000.  They’re 7-1 since, including wins over Nebraska and Michigan in the Big Ten Tourney.

$27,775 Parlay

We’ve also got a sick two-bet parlay that needs Purdue to get home. Pick the CFB winner pre-season at 100-1? Check. Pick the CBB winner? We’ll see.

1. Indiana College Football National Championship +10000 ✅
2. Purdue College Basketball National Championship +1000

A $25 Bonus Bet at +111000 could turn into a $27,775 win.

#2 Iowa State

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +1750
• Current Championship Odds: +1500

Iowa State, who finished third in a loaded Big 12 Conference, beat Tennessee State 108-74 in the first round of the tournament, and pummeled Kentucky 82-63 in the second round. Another SEC foe is next in #6-seed Tennessee – and should they win, a rematch with either Arizona, or another SEC clash with Alabama.

Iowa State NCAA Tourney future to watch

Credit where it’s due. Placed on November 10th, this Florida-based bettor dropped $125 on the Cyclones at +6000. They’ll collect $7,625 if the #2 seed runs the table.

#3 Illinois

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +2250
• Current Championship Odds: +1500

The Big 10 is deep, and the Fighting Illini are good. Illinois took Penn apart 105-70 in the Round of 64, and beat VCU, one of the hottest teams in the country, by 21 to advance to the second weekend of play. There’s nothing but challenging matchups left though, and the Houston Cougars will be a different test on Thursday night.

Illinois NCAA Tournament future to watch

The Illini were up for grabs as high as 50-1 earlier in the season. A Tennessee sports bettor plunked down $100 at the +5000 price and they have to be feeling better and better about their chances of collecting the $5K payout.

#2 Connecticut

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +2500
• Current Championship Odds: +2000

UConn started the tourney at 25-1 and are down to 20-1 after winning their first two games. The back-to-back 2023 and 2024 tourney champs are no stranger to deep runs. Last week they beat Furman and UCLA, and now face Michigan State for a chance to advance to quarterfinals.

UConn NCAA Tourney future to watch

$5,000 on Connecticut at +1600 placed on March 1st for a potential $85,000 Championship score. Big money, big conviction.

#3 Michigan State

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +5000
• Current Championship Odds: +3000

Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans are through to the last sixteen after beating North Dakota State and Louisville in the first two rounds. They’re a tough, battle-tested team having accumulated 27 wins from a difficult Big Ten schedule. UConn stands in their way of advancing through the East.

Michigan State Tourney future to watch

A Florida-based bettor is in on Michigan State – like, really in. $2,000 title bet at 40-1 in. This high stakes +4000 bet will pull in a massive $82,000 if the Spartans can win the tournament. Hey, it’s not impossible – the Spartans are 27-7 and have quality wins over top teams like Arkansas, Purdue, and Illinois who are all still in the field. They face UConn in a late game on Friday.

#5 St. John’s

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +6000
• Current Championship Odds: +4000

The Red Storm are 21-1 in their last 22 games, with the lone loss coming on the road against UConn at the end of February… a loss they avenged with a 20-point victory over the Huskies in the Big East Tournament Championship less than a month later. They’re playing great basketball and already have a close 67-65 win over Kansas under their belt in the tourney. They’ll need to be at their best to top Duke on Friday.

St. John’s NCAA Tourney future to watch

100-1 on Rick Pitino and St. John’s for $100? A clean $10K awaits this bettor if the Red Storm can pull this out. They’ve got Duke on Friday night, but if they can beat Duke – they can beat anyone

#4 Arkansas

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +5000
• Current Championship Odds: +4000

The good? Arkansas has won seven straight and John Calipari has the Razorbacks cooking heading into the last sixteen. The bad? They catch Arizona in their next matchup.

Arkansas NCAA Tourney future to watch

The Razorbacks at 50-1 for $1,000. Placed back in February, this one is looking better and better with each passing game. Coach Cal has Arkansas playing great basketball in advance of Thursday’s matchup with #1 Arizona in the West Region.

#4 Nebraska

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +10000
• Current Championship Odds: +5000

Nebraska? Yep, Nebraska are among the last sixteen teams still alive to win the college basketball national championship. Entering the season the Cornhuskers had never won a single NCAA tourney matchup… now they’ve won two after beating Troy and Vanderbilt. Next? A midwest showdown for the ages with #9 Iowa where they’re a favorite to advance.

Nebraska NCAA Tourney future to watch

This one is a little different because it’s a retail bet, placed at a Hard Rock Sportsbook retail location in Florida – but it’s Nebraska at 500-1 to win it all. That’s a crazy price to still have live with just sixteen teams remaining. The bet was accepted on December 11th, and with a $100 stake, would pay $50,100 if the Cornhuskers continue their run all the way to the trophy.

#6 Tennessee

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +15000
• Current Championship Odds: +6000

Tennessee started the tournament at 150-1 to win it all and have seen those odds drastically reduced to 60-1 following wins over an impressive Miami (OH) squad, and #3 Virginia. Next up? The Iowa State Cyclones.

Tennessee NCAA Tourney future to watch

A bettor in Tennessee backed the Vols at 30-1 pre-season, back in October, to win the National Championship with a $500 bet. The CLV on this one isn’t great, as the you could bet the Vols at 60-1 right now on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook… but there’s still $15.5K waiting as a potential payoff here.

#4 Alabama

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +15000
• Current Championship Odds: +7500

Alabama, without Aden Holloway, were impressive during the tournament’s first two rounds. They beat Hofstra by 20, and then blew the doors off of #5-seed Texas Tech 90-65 in an uncompetitive Round of 32 matchup. They will look to prove they are far from a one-man-team on Friday when they face Michigan.

Alabama NCAA Tourney future to watch

While Aden Holloway stories dominated the headlines, the Crimson Tide’s odds of winning a title crashed to as low as 150-1 the day after the suspension was announced. While most bettors ran, not all of them did. A bettor in Florida liked the value and dropped $250 at the +15000 price. Hey, they’re still live for a $37,750 pay day with just 16 teams left.

Cashing out… for a loss

Notably, we also had a $100 Championship future on the Crimson Tide at +6000 that was cashed out early on March 16th in the wake of the Aden Holloway suspension news for just $32.33… a $67.67 loss.

#9 Iowa

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +15000
• Current Championship Odds: +10000

The Hawkeyes pulled off the upset of the tournament (for now) in the second round, knocking off Florida 73-72 to move on in the South Region. Beat the Champ, be the Champ? We’ll find out. Big Midwest bragging rights will be on the line when Iowa and Nebraska clash on Thursday.

Iowa NCAA Tourney future to watch

We’re firmly in underdog territory now, but theres a bettor in Florida that backed the Hawkeyes at 150-1 back in February with a $25 wager. At the time of the bet Iowa had just lost to Maryland, and then suffered a 21 point home defeat to Purdue. The odds tanked on a Hawkeye title, and despite losing four of five heading into the NCAA tournament, Iowa, and this bet, are alive and kicking.

#11 Texas

• Pre Tournament Title Odds: +25000
• Current Championship Odds: +20000

We had a lot of preseason action on the Longhorns to win the national title this year… oh, wait — that was for college football. On the basketball front Texas has flown under the radar for most of the campaign – until now. Earning entry through the First 4, Texas beat #11 NC State 68-66, #6 BYU 79-71, and #3 Gonzaga 74-68 to become the only double-digit seed remaining in the 2026 tournament. Texas were 250-1 at the start of the tournament are available for 200-1 now if you’re interested in taking a shot before the last 16 meeting with Purdue.

Texas NCAA Tourney future to watch

The Longhorns knocked off 3-seed Gonzaga on Saturday, and one bettor went value hunting. A team in the last sixteen at 250-1? That’s worth $100. If the Longhorns extend their Cinderella run, they’ll net this bettor a $25.1K win.