Happy Monday! We have a fun AFC West matchup to close out NFL Week 1 as the Chiefs host the Broncos. I’m looking at three longshot anytime-touchdown bets involving two quarterbacks who can get loose when plays break down, plus a Kansas City tight end who could quietly benefit from some offseason personnel turnover.
Let’s get into my favorite touchdown bets for Monday night at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
The Best Chiefs vs. Broncos Touchdown Bets for MNF
- Bo Nix +475 Anytime TD
- Patrick Mahomes +650 Anytime TD
- Noah Gray +850 Anytime TD
All referenced odds are subject to change.
NFL Touchdown Pick: Bo Nix
I’m hunting some bigger numbers and value tonight in one could be an ugly matchup. Is it a little crazy betting on the legs of two guys fresh off 2025 season-ending lower-body injuries? Maybe, but the data checks out in terms of the matchup.
First, both of these guys have the green light for a full go, as Mahomes status for the opener was much more questionable than Nix’s ever was. Bo is more than capable of making plays with his legs, and Denver has shown a willingness to give him opportunities on called quarterback runs.
The Broncos called 10 designed quarterback runs last season, which might not sound like much, but it ranked eighth-most in the NFL. Nix also scrambled 36 times for 307 yards, as Denver ranked 13th leaguewide in QB scrambles.
Nix was one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks once he took off. Per Sumer Sports, his 0.614 EPA per scramble ranked second among qualified quarterbacks.
He has real off-script ability, and he can create a rushing-touchdown chance when a red-zone play gets messy.
Kansas City allowed the eighth-most quarterback scrambles in the league last season, and Nix has already shown he is comfortable taking off against this defense. He ran for 50 yards against the Chiefs last year and did score once on the ground across both meetings against them.
Kansas City also blitzed at a top-five rate in the NFL last season, which is another nice little sprinkle for Nix. The Chiefs can create pressure and force quarterbacks into off-script situations, but that can also lead to scramble chances if Nix escapes the first wave.
That is a pretty nice setup at +475. Denver does not need to call a bunch of quarterback runs for this to be live. Nix can score on a goal-line keeper, an RPO, a bootleg, or one of those chaotic red-zone plays where the first read is not there and he simply takes off.
The +1750 first-touchdown number is a much smaller pizza-money sprinkle, but I have to hit it as well at that number.
MNF Touchdown Pick: Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes is the longer-shot quarterback dart, but I think +650 is worth a look in a division game where every red-zone possession could matter.
Kansas City called only three designed quarterback runs last season, so I am obviously not projecting a package of called rushes here. That is not the case. This is more of a bet on Mahomes making something happen when a play breaks down.
The Chiefs ranked fifth in team quarterback scramble yards last season, which is the important distinction here. Kansas City is not drawing up a bunch of called runs for Mahomes, but he is still one of the league’s best at escaping pressure, making something happen when the first read is covered, and turning a broken play into a big gain.
Per Sumer, Mahomes scrambled 53 times for 420 yards last season, and he ranked seventh among qualified quarterbacks with 0.560 EPA per scramble. He was also highly effective in those spots, producing a 66% scramble success rate.
Denver also blitzed at a top-five rate in the NFL last season, which is a nice little sprinkle for this bet. More pressure creates more opportunities for a quarterback to get flushed from the pocket, and Mahomes is at his best when he is forced to create.
Mahomes found the end zone five times on the ground last season. At +650, I do not need him to rack up a ton of carries. I only need one high-leverage moment near the goal line. Heck, maybe he sneaks one in and shows off he’s OK with taking a hit.
Denver allowed the 10th-most quarterback scrambles last season, and both defenses were a little leaky when quarterbacks took off. According to Sumer, Kansas City and Denver each ironically allowed 0.484 EPA per scramble, which ranked in the bottom half of the league.
Mahomes is also available at +2000 to score first. That is a true pizza-money look, but it is hard not to be at least a little interested at that kind of number.
Monday TD Prediction: Noah Gray
Noah Gray’s number will not jump off the page from the outside looking in, but I think there is at least a case to be made at +850.
Gray was on the field when it mattered last season. He played on 65% of Kansas City’s snaps inside the 5-yard line in the games he was available for.
Kansas City also ran 12 personnel at the 11th-highest rate in the NFL last season. That is great for Gray, because the Chiefs already showed they were comfortable putting two tight ends on the field regularly, even with a stronger group of wide receivers around him.
JuJu Smith-Schuster and Hollywood Brown ranked ahead of Gray in RZ usage, and neither is with Kansas City anymore.
The 2025 target numbers were not great. Gray had only two targets inside the 20-yard line and one end-zone target, so I am not going to pretend this is some slam-dunk red-zone role.
But there is a reason I am willing to take a sprinkle at a big number. In 2024, Gray had 10 red-zone targets and five end-zone targets, which are much healthier numbers. That came while DeAndre Hopkins was still in the picture for part of the season.
According to Sumer, Gray ranked fourth on the Chiefs in red-zone snaps and fifth in red-zone routes last year. Again, a couple of the players ahead of him in those categories are no longer in Kansas City.
Patrick Surtain is obviously an all-world cornerback, and Denver could choose to make life difficult for Kansas City’s receivers on the perimeter. If that happens, I would not be shocked if Mahomes looks to Gray on a quick pop, play-action leak, or short throw near the goal line.
This is a big number for a reason, and it is absolutely a late dart. But when you are getting +850 on a tight end who played 65% of the Chiefs’ snaps inside the 5 last season, I think it is worth a small shot.
Gray is +4000 to score the first touchdown. Tiny, tiny bet, just like all of tonight’s long-shot touchdown picks.
Good luck with all of your Monday Night Football touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially these bets at long odds – we’re getting nice numbers for a reason!
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