The MLB playoffs are here, and I’ve got a play on three of the four Wild Card Series.
There’s one series where I think the favorite is overvalued, but I still can’t trust the other side enough to put my money on it.
Before we get into the picks, keep one thing in mind: home runs decide October. 47% of postseason runs over the last five years have come on homers, and teams that out-homer their opponent have won 83% of postseason games.
Boston Red Sox (+135) vs. New York Yankees (-160)
I am a diehard Yankees fan, but I think the Yankees are way overvalued to win this Wild Card Series against the Red Sox.
The steam is on New York, which is now -160 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. You can get Boston at +135, and I find there to be great value on the Red Sox.
The Yankees are without Aaron Judge. I know what people are going to say: “The Yankees’ record without Aaron Judge is fine,” or, “Aaron Judge stinks in the playoffs anyway. Who cares?”
Well, the Yankees are averaging a run less per game without Judge, and that’s going to be tough against a Boston rotation that has been great.
Why I Like Boston’s Pitching
The Red Sox are going with lefty Payton Tolle, who has really had the Yankees’ number this year. The 23-year-old throws 98 and went 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA and 171 strikeouts this season.
In two starts against the Yankees, Tolle posted a sub-1.00 ERA with 18 strikeouts, while New York hit just .125 against him.
Then Boston is throwing Sonny Gray in Game 2. Gray has that vengeance against the Yankees, so it’s a good revenge spot for him. He’s also having a great season, with a 1.29 ERA against playoff teams this year.
I like the pitching for the Red Sox.
Don’t forget Aroldis Chapman, either, with another revenge angle if he gets an opportunity to close things out against the Yankees. Ranger Suárez would get the potential Game 3.
No staff threw more left-handed pitchers or got more innings from lefties than Boston. Garrett Crochet, who has been hurt, also might pitch in relief, which would add even more depth to this Red Sox bullpen.
My Concern With the Yankees
New York is banged up. Judge has the calf injury, and Stanton, Grisham and Weathers are also hurt or coming off injuries.
In the Judge era, the Yankees are 8-27 in playoff games when they don’t out-homer their opponent.
If Boston keeps the ball in the park, New York has a problem.
My only fear with the Red Sox is their offense. Boston was the worst offense in baseball in September, averaging just under three runs per game.
Cam Schlittler has also been phenomenal against Boston, his former childhood team, with a 0.56 ERA against them. I love Schlittler, but if the Yankees lose Game 1, this series is over.
From a value perspective, I think the Yankees are being way overvalued simply for being the New York Yankees.
I don’t trust the bats, and I certainly do not trust the bullpen.
- Ariel’s Pick: Boston Red Sox (+135) to Win Series
Houston Astros (-145) vs. Chicago White Sox
This is the one Wild Card Series where I just can’t find a way to feel good about putting my money on either team.
The White Sox completely imploded over the last month of the season. They had a 6.5-game lead to win their division and blew it to the Cleveland Guardians.
Houston, meanwhile, found a way to win the AL West on the final weekend of the season.
Yet, the Astros at -145 at Hard Rock Bet is just too expensive for me to lay.
Houston’s Rotation Is Too Banged Up
Look at what Houston is dealing with in its starting rotation.
You’ve got Hunter Brown, Peter Lambert and Hayden Wesneski, while Cristian Javier is hurt and Mike Burrows has been out.
That leaves Houston relying heavily on Brown, who just pitched a few days ago and would have been working on short rest, which is why he can’t go as the Game 1 starter.
It’s crazy how banged up the Astros are.
Houston’s starting rotation has always helped bridge the gap to its great bullpen, but I just can’t trust that rotation this year.
The Astros finished with a 4.81 rotation ERA, which ranked 27th in baseball. They went 81-81, allowed 766 runs and finished with a -32 run differential.
The White Sox, at least, had a +56 run differential.
So we’re talking about a bottom-four rotation laying around -140 or -145 to win a three-game series.
Absolutely not.
Why I Still Can’t Back Chicago
Chicago is at least coming into the postseason a little hotter. The White Sox went 7-3 over their final 10 games, while Houston was .500.
The White Sox are also extremely comfortable playing bullpen games. They set the MLB record with 214 relief outings of four or more outs, and now Houston is borrowing a similar plan because its rotation is so banged up.
There should be runs scored in this series, too. Houston had one of the highest home run totals in Major League Baseball, while Chicago also finished inside the top five.
Yordan Alvarez was incredible this season. He was the MVP favorite and led MLB in average, on-base percentage and slugging. He hit .386 over his final 12 games, and Chicago walked him eight times in seven games.
Houston also won the regular season series 5-2, and Jeremy Peña hit .345 against Chicago.
So why can’t I back the White Sox?
Their record against playoff teams was 24-36 with a 4.59 ERA in those matchups, the worst mark in the field. Chicago’s starters also posted an ERA above five since August.
I don’t want to lay the price with Houston, and I don’t trust Chicago enough to take the other side.
- Ariel’s Pick: Pass
Atlanta Braves (-125) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Now we get to a series I can get behind.
The Braves are laying -125, and I’m willing to lay that price with the home team.
Atlanta doesn’t have the greatest playoff history, and Chris Sale’s postseason numbers can be a little freaky. But Sale is still the ace getting the ball in Game 1, and he went 8-3 with a 1.66 ERA at home this season.
Sale allowed more than three runs in just one of his 27 starts and posted a 2.08 ERA against Philadelphia.
One of the Phillies’ best players hasn’t exactly enjoyed this matchup, either. Bryce Harper is 2-11 with 11 strikeouts against Sale.
I Trust Atlanta’s Bullpen More
Atlanta’s bullpen ranked fourth-best in baseball, and I love any good bullpen in the postseason.
The Braves also just got Robert Suarez back, and he owns a 1.06 ERA through 33 games.
If I’m going to back you in the playoffs, I need a good bullpen.
Philadelphia has Jhoan Duran, and he’s not the problem. Duran has a 1.82 ERA and hasn’t allowed a postseason run.
It’s getting the ball to him that worries me.
Jonathan Bowlan has a groin issue, and Alex McFarlane has only been up since August. I don’t trust Philadelphia’s bullpen enough to consistently get to the closer situation.
Atlanta also won nine of 13 against the Phillies this season. Braves starters went 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA in those games.
Philadelphia’s Bats Aren’t Giving Me Enough
The Phillies’ bats haven’t been great, either.
Philadelphia ranked 29th in runs in September with a .356 slugging percentage, while Kyle Schwarber has just one home run over his last 16 games.
Ronald Acuña Jr. has been going in the opposite direction.
Acuña posted a .604 slugging percentage with 20 RBIs over his last 26 games, and he went 13-for-28 with three homers against Philadelphia.
I know Philly owns Atlanta in October. The Phillies beat the Braves in the 2022 and 2023 NLDS, and Atlanta has lost three straight postseason series since 2021.
Sale hasn’t been great in the postseason, either, with a 6.35 ERA.
I know all of those things are factors.
But based on where Philadelphia’s bats are right now and how shaky that bullpen looks, I’ve got to go with the hotter team and the bullpen I trust more.
That’s Atlanta.
- Ariel’s Pick: Atlanta Braves (-125) to Win Series
Chicago Cubs (+100) vs. San Diego Padres
The last Wild Card Series is the Chicago Cubs against the San Diego Padres, and I find there to be value on the Cubs at even money at Hard Rock Bet.
Let me be clear: I don’t trust the Cubs in anything longer than a best-of-three series.
Best of five? Best of seven? No thanks.
I don’t believe in their bullpen or their starting rotation depth enough for that.
But in a best-of-three series, those bats can absolutely outslug the Padres.
Chicago’s Offense Can Carry This Team
The Cubs scored 850 runs, the most in Major League Baseball, and led the National League with 220 home runs.
They also dominated San Diego head-to-head.
Chicago won five of six against the Padres, outscoring them 55-28 while hitting 18 home runs in those six games.
You can thank Pete Crow-Armstrong for a lot of that.
PCA went 8-22 with four homers and 10 RBIs against San Diego this year.
The Padres’ stars haven’t exactly delivered in October, either. Manny Machado is hitting .158 over his last two postseasons, while Fernando Tatis Jr. went 1-12 against the Cubs last year.
San Diego’s Pitching Is Hurting
The Padres’ rotation is hurting.
Casey Mize, Lucas Giolito and Joe Musgrove are all unavailable, while reliever Jeremiah Estrada is also out with a shoulder injury.
San Diego ranked 27th in innings from its starters, which means the Padres are going to have to lean heavily on their bullpen.
Chicago has Matthew Boyd starting Game 1, and he owns a 1.69 ERA across six career postseason starts. Boyd allowed one run over 4 1/3 innings in Game 1 against San Diego last year, and his road ERA this season is 2.86.
Don’t forget about the Cubs’ defense, either.
Chicago set a record with +70 Outs Above Average, while PCA produced the best Statcast-era season by an outfielder with +27 Fielding Run Value.
With how badly the Padres’ bats have flamed out in the postseason and how much I trust the Cubs to potentially outslug San Diego in a best-of-three series, I’m willing to take the even money on the road.
- Ariel’s Pick: Chicago Cubs (+100) to Win Series
Ariel Epstein’s MLB Wild Card Series Picks
Here’s where I’m landing on the four Wild Card Series:
- Red Sox vs. Yankees: Boston Red Sox (+135)
- White Sox vs. Astros: Pass
- Phillies vs. Braves: Atlanta Braves (-125)
- Padres vs. Cubs: Chicago Cubs (+100)
Referenced odds are subject to change.
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