Winning Monday. Winning Tuesday.
Tuesday was another profitable day as Argentina pulled off a dramatic comeback, the Marlins came through after blowing a late lead before winning in extra innings, and the only miss came with the Braves, who were shut down by the Pirates. Paul Skenes finally picked up a team win after a long stretch of fades, but at +144, it was worth taking the shot.
The result was another 2-1 day and another unit added to the bankroll.
With no soccer on Wednesday, the focus shifts almost entirely to Major League Baseball.
The WNBA board isn’t there yet. There just isn’t anything that feels comfortable enough to fire on. The next couple of weeks will be about picking spots while waiting for a big UFC card this weekend, along with soccer returning Thursday and Friday.
Today’s card features three baseball sides and one player prop, including the Hard Rock Bet of the Day.
Astros vs. Nationals: Nationals Moneyline (-136)
Today is Foster Griffin Day. This has become one of the most profitable trends of the season, and there’s no reason to stop riding it now.
The Nationals have won four consecutive starts made by Foster Griffin dating back to May 19. In fact, Washington has won every game Griffin has started except one. His ERA has been outstanding, including a 1.80 ERA in July after allowing just one earned run over five innings in a 9-5 win over Pittsburgh. Washington enters at 47-46 after splitting the first two games of the series.
Houston counters with Spencer Arrighetti, who owns a respectable 7-4 record and a 3.81 ERA. However, the Astros have lost four straight games started by Arrighetti, with losses to Tampa Bay, Detroit, Cleveland, and Kansas City. Houston also failed to cover the run line in every one of those defeats.
If you’d rather avoid laying the juice, the run line is an option. But I’d rather cash the moneyline than watch the Nationals win by one run and lose the wager.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline (-136) (1.36 units)
Brewers vs. Cardinals: Brewers Moneyline (-143)
Next up is another familiar trend. It’s Kyle Harrison Day.
Even after dropping two of his last three starts, Harrison continues to be one of the most profitable pitchers to back this season. He’s 8-1 with a 2.82 ERA and bounced back with a 7-4 victory over Arizona after the bullpen nearly let that game slip away. Outside of one poor outing in Las Vegas against the Athletics, Harrison has been excellent all season.
Milwaukee enters at 58-33 and has won four straight games while looking for a four-game sweep of the Cardinals.
St. Louis counters with Michael McGreevy. McGreevy owns respectable season numbers, but the Cardinals have lost his last four starts – 5-1 vs. Atlanta, 4-0 vs. Miami, 6-5 vs. Kansas City, and 5-4 vs. Minnesota. While his home ERA is significantly better than his road numbers, the trend is moving in the wrong direction.
Milwaukee continues to play outstanding baseball, and there’s no reason to step in front of them.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-143) (1.43 units)
Cubs vs. Orioles: Orioles Moneyline (-131)
The third play focuses on fading another pitcher who has been profitable to bet against. This time it’s Colin Rea.
Rea has struggled on the road all season, posting a 3-4 record, 6.60 ERA, .290 opposing batting average, and 34 earned runs allowed in 46.1 innings.
The Cubs have played very well on the road lately, winning three straight away from home, including victories over Milwaukee and Baltimore. Still, this feels like the right spot to fade Rea.
Baltimore starts Dean Kremer, who doesn’t pitch often but has quietly been effective. The Orioles are 2-1 in his starts, including his most recent outing when he threw six innings and allowed one earned run in a 6-1 victory over the White Sox.
This isn’t so much about backing Baltimore as it is fading Rea’s road struggles.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-131) (1.31 units)
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+109)
The Hard Rock Bet of the Day is presented by Hard Rock Bet.
Matt Olson is red hot.
He has gone over 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games. Olson enters today’s matchup after hitting two home runs in the final game against the Mets, a double yesterday, recording eight total bases two games ago, and two total bases in each of his previous two games.
Now he faces Jared Jones. Jones has struggled at home, posting a 6.92 ERA while allowing 14 hits and three home runs across 13 innings.
Olson enters as another five-star play on the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet with a 64% cover probability, 48-41 record to the over on total bases, and a projection of nearly three total bases.
Let’s stay with the hot bat.
Pick: Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+109) (1 unit)
Wednesday’s MLB Betting Card
- Nationals Moneyline (-136) (1.36 units)
- Brewers Moneyline (-143) (1.43 units)
- Orioles Moneyline (-131) (1.31 units)
- Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+109) (1 unit)
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