Happy Wednesday! We’re back to find some MLB picks for Wednesday, May 27! Temperatures are climbing across the country again, and it’s a great slate to fire on some home run picks today on Hard Rock Bet. Let’s dive into it.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Wednesday, May 27
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Ben Rice +450 (Yankees at Royals – Kauffman Stadium – 7:40 p.m. ET)
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Brandon Lowe +350 (Cubs at Pirates – PNC Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)
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Brandon Nimmo +450 (Astros at Rangers – Globe Life Field – 8:05 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Ben Rice
We’ll start at Kauffman Stadium, where the Yankees visit the Royals in what appears to be one of the best hitting environments of the day. First-pitch temperatures are projected to be around 80 degrees in Kansas City, which is ideal for offense, and New York just hung a big number on the Royals yesterday.
Southpaw Noah Cameron is set to take the mound for Kansas City, and he’s been a pitcher to fade all season. After a sub-3.00 ERA in 2025, the underlying metrics were screaming regression, and 2026 has brought that full circle. He ranks in just the 20th percentile in expected ERA and doesn’t show any better than that in average exit velocity, fastball velocity, or expected batting average.
Cameron is also struggling to keep the ball on the ground, giving up a barrel rate north of 10%, according to Baseball Savant. Most notably in this matchup, he has actually been worse against left-handed hitters than righties. His expected ISO against left-handed bats sits at a massive .287, and lefties have been punishing both his fastball and slider — pitches that make up nearly half of his mix to same-sided hitters.
That’s where Rice comes in as my favorite play on the board. Rice is in the midst of a full-blown breakout, hitting .285 with 16 home runs this season and turning himself into a legitimate star. He’s already launched five homers in just 53 at-bats against left-handed pitching, posting a .585 slugging percentage against southpaws.
Under the hood, Rice looks every bit the part of an elite power bat. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, launch angle sweet-spot rate, and average exit velocity on Baseball Savant.
Everything lines up perfectly here: a power-hitting lefty in great weather against a regressing lefty who’s struggling badly against same-handed power, plus a below-average Royals bullpen that is susceptible to the long ball. At +450 on Hard Rock Bet, Rice is my top home run pick for Wednesday.
MLB Home Run Prediction: Brandon Lowe
Next, we’ll head to PNC Park in Pittsburgh for a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch, where Jameson Taillon faces his former team. Taillon has already surrendered 17 home runs this season, and left-handed hitters have done most of the damage. Ten of those homers have come from lefties in just 102 at-bats, with LHBs posting a .569 slugging percentage against him.
The batted-ball profile is exactly what we want to target. Taillon ranks in just the fourth percentile in barrel rate and the 21st percentile in ground-ball rate, which is a brutal combination for a pitcher facing power lefties.
The former Pirate is allowing a .333 ISO overall vs. lefties, and his two primary pitches to left-handed hitters — the fastball and changeup — both carry ugly power numbers. Lefties own an outrageous .442 expected ISO against his fastball and a .239 ISO against his changeup.
Lowe is an ideal matchup fit. Dating back to the beginning of last season, Lowe has a .277 ISO against right-handed pitching. Against right-handed fastballs, his ISO jumps to .412, and he still shows plenty of pop against changeups with a .303 ISO in that split, per AddMoreFunds.
Lowe is also having a strong 2026, according to the advanced metrics. He ranks in at least the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and launch angle sweet-spot percentage.
With temperatures expected to be in the mid-70s at PNC Park today, conditions are more than good enough to support power. At +350, Lowe is one of my favorite home run bets on the slate.
Home Run Pick: Brandon Nimmo
We’ll close in Texas, where the Rangers host the Astros at Globe Life Field with an 8:05 p.m. ET first pitch. With a controlled environment and temperatures in the high 70s, there’s a good chance we’ll see the roof open, which only helps power potential.
Mike Burrows goes for Houston, and he’s been a disappointment after being a popular sleeper coming into the season. Left-handed hitters have given him fits in particular.
Burrows is allowing a .272 ISO to lefties, who have slugged a massive .608 against him so far in 2026. He’s also yielding a well-below-average ground-ball rate.
Nimmo stands out as a strong target in this matchup. After a slow start, Nimmo has started to heat up, with two home runs over the last eight days and five of his six homers this season coming against right-handed pitching.
His current ISO against right-handed pitchers sits at .171, but his expected ISO in that split is nearly 90 points higher at .258, suggesting more power production is on the way.
The Astros’ bullpen has been atrocious and has already allowed 37 home runs, which is the worst bullpen mark in MLB this season. Nimmo is trending up, and the underlying metrics are pointing to positive regression.
Good luck on Wednesday. Let’s hit a few home run picks today!
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