MLB Home Run Picks Today: HR Predictions for Monday (May 4)

We’re back for another week of baseball action and home run picks today! Monday’s slate has two games standing out above the rest for home run bets. There are some quality arms on the board today, but we’ve found the right spots to attack on Hard Rock Bet. Let’s jump into the best MLB home run picks today for May 4.

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, May 4

• Moises Ballesteros +375 (Reds at Cubs – 7:40 p.m. ET)

• Ian Happ +350 (Reds at Cubs – 7:40 p.m. ET)

• Jose Ramirez +400 (Guardians at Royals – 7:40 p.m. ET)

• Chase DeLauter +525 (Guardians at Royals – 7:40 p.m. ET)

MLB Home Run Best Bet: Moises Ballesteros +375

We’ll start at Wrigley Field, where the Cincinnati Reds send prospect Chase Petty to the mound against the Cubs. Petty had a brief cup of coffee in the majors last year, and it did not go well. He allowed three home runs and 14 hits in just six innings.

Petty’s minor league track record hasn’t inspired much confidence either, with a 4.24 ERA across six seasons in the minors, including 17 home runs allowed in 112 Triple-A innings last year. He’s certainly no stranger to the long ball.

That points us straight to the Cubs, and two bats are standing out to me. Both Moises Ballesteros and Ian Happ make a ton of sense.

Dating back to the beginning of last season, the young, left-handed Ballesteros owns a .244 ISO against right-handed pitching. This season, his Baseball Savant page is plastered in red — 84th percentile in hard-hit rate, 74th percentile in barrel rate, and 90th percentile in launch angle sweet spot. The quality of contact is elite, and Petty is exactly the kind of arm that brings out the best in a hitter like Ballesteros.

MLB Home Run Prediction Today: Ian Happ +350

I’m doubling up on the Wrigley Field matchup with Ian Happ at +350, and the power numbers back it up completely.

Happ is already up to eight home runs on the season, and dating back to the start of 2025, he owns an ISO north of .200 against right-handed pitching. This season, that number has climbed to an impressive .269 ISO against righties, which is one of the better marks in the Cubs lineup. He is locked in from a power perspective right now.

Layer that on top of the Petty matchup and the Wrigley conditions, and it’s a great spot to make a home run prediction.

Per Kevin Roth’s PropFinder weather forecast, winds are blowing out at 15 mph with fairly warm temperatures. If this game plays, it’s a fantastic spot for hitters.

Roth does note that some storms could cross paths with the first pitch, so keep an eye on the weather before locking these in. The 11.5-run total on Hard Rock Bet tells you everything you need to know about how oddsmakers feel about this environment.

Home Run Picks Today: Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals

Now to Kansas City, where Michael Wacha takes the hill for the Royals against Cleveland. Wacha carries a shiny 3.13 ERA, but the surface numbers are masking some real vulnerability against left-handed hitters.

Per Baseball Savant, Wacha sits right at or just below league average in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity. Against lefties, specifically, he’s allowing a .148 ISO — but his expected ISO against left-handed hitters sits at .239. That is a massive gap and a strong sign he has been getting lucky in that split. Cleveland has plenty of left-handed bats to exploit it.

I’ll start with Ramirez at +400. He hasn’t been fantastic from the left side of the plate this season, but dating back to the beginning of last year, he owns a .214 ISO and remains one of the best hitters on the planet. The matchup sets up well, and +400 is a number worth backing for a player of his caliber.

For my final pick, I’m going with DeLauter at +525 as the value play in this game. He’s been quiet since the opening weeks of the season, but he’s rounding back into form — multi-hit games in five of his last six appearances, including three doubles during that stretch and a home run yesterday.

DeLauter owns a .266 ISO against right-handed pitching so far this season, and at +525 the price is simply too good to pass up against a pitcher getting lucky against lefties.

Temperatures are projected north of 75 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing out, making this one of the best homer-hunting venues on the entire Monday slate.

Home Run Notes for Monday, May 4

A few things worth keeping in mind when making your MLB home run predictions today:

• The Houston Astros’ bullpen has been atrocious, allowing a major league-high 29 home runs and pitching to a 6.20 ERA this season. The Astros are on today’s slate, so if you’re targeting live or late-inning spots, that is the pen to attack.

• The Tampa Bay Rays’ and Colorado Rockies’ bullpens have also been leaky, each allowing 20-plus home runs on the year.

• Per Kevin Roth’s PropFinder forecast, Wrigley Field is the top weather spot on the slate if the game gets in — winds blowing out at 15 mph with warm temperatures. Kansas City is the other strong-hitting environment with temperatures north of 75 degrees and winds blowing out.

Good luck on Monday. Let’s start the week right!

All referenced odds are subject to change.