MLB Home Run Picks Today: HR Predictions for Monday (June 1)

Happy Monday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks to kick off the week on Hard Rock Bet. It’s a smaller slate today, but there are a couple of spots that are too good to pass up. Let’s dive into my home run best bets!

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, June 1

• Mike Trout +325 (Rockies at Angels – Angel Stadium – 9:38 p.m. ET)

• Jo Adell +350 (Rockies at Angels – Angel Stadium – 9:38 p.m. ET)

• Juan Soto +325 (Mets at Mariners – T-Mobile Park – 9:40 p.m. ET)

• Honorable mention: Shohei Ohtani +350 (Dodgers at Diamondbacks – Chase Field – TBD p.m. ET)

MLB Home Run Best Bets: Mike Trout and Jo Adell

We’ll start in Anaheim, where Kyle Freeland takes the bump for the Rockies in what is an absolutely outstanding home run spot. Freeland is sporting an 8.08 ERA and ranks in just the second percentile in expected ERA, according to Baseball Savant. He’s been just as bad as advertised, which is below league average in pretty much everything.

I can’t even defend Freeland with the Coors Field angle. His home and away ERAs are essentially identical this season, so this isn’t a ballpark issue. This is just a pitcher who isn’t getting it done.

Freeland’s power numbers against right-handed hitters are alarming. According to FanGraphs, Freeland has pitched 33⅓ innings to right-handed batters this season. In that span, righties have gone deep 11 times and posted a .614 slugging percentage. The Angels’ lineup is loaded with capable right-handed hitters, and pretty much the entire order is live to go yard today.

Mike Trout is the most obvious and arguably best candidate on the board at +325. He’s been a treat to watch when healthy this season, posting a .282 expected ISO against left-handed pitching. At that price, it’s hard to say no.

Jo Adell is my second play in this game at +350. He’s posted a .344 ISO against left-handed pitching this season and has absolutely obliterated left-handed fastballs in a small sample.

Adell has six home runs in just 65 at-bats against southpaws, which is a strong ratio by any measure. With a smaller slate today and Freeland on the hill, I don’t mind doubling up in this game.

The weather at Angel Stadium should be around 70 degrees with sunny skies and a light breeze blowing out, which only adds to an already fantastic power environment.

MLB Home Run Pick: Juan Soto +325

Next, we’ll head to T-Mobile Park in Seattle, where the Mets visit the Mariners for a 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch. I rarely target home run picks at T-Mobile Park, but the matchup has some sticky data behind it.

Mariner’s starting pitcher Emerson Hancock has a shiny 2.78 ERA on the surface, but he’s a strong regression candidate under the hood. Against left-handed hitters, he’s allowing a .147 ISO — not terrible — but his expected ISO is north of .200, implying there’s some luck in the mix.

The young hurler throws his fastball over 40% of the time to left-handed hitters, and those lefties own a .272 expected ISO against that pitch of his in 2026.

That’s where Juan Soto comes in. After a slow start to the season, Soto has been absolutely on fire. He’s posted a .330 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and in a small but jaw-dropping sample against right-handed fastballs, his ISO is north of .500. He enters this game having hit 10 of his 13 home runs in the month of May alone. The man is grease-fire hot right now.

Soto has 10 home runs in 93 at-bats against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .688 slugging percentage in that split. Hancock has already surrendered five home runs to left-handed hitters this year, and his regression indicators suggest more are coming. This is an anomaly pick for me at T-Mobile Park, but the stars are aligning. You can grab Soto at +325 on Hard Rock Bet.

Home Run Prediction: Shohei Ohtani +350

Before we get to the notes, Shohei Ohtani is worth a sprinkle at +350 on Hard Rock Bet as the Dodgers visit Chase Field in Arizona. Consider him an honorable mention.

Eduardo Rodriguez has a shiny 2.31 ERA for the Diamondbacks, but the underlying metrics tell a different story. Most teams have chosen to platoon stack against him this season, which means he hasn’t faced a ton of left-handed bats.

Rodriguez is allowing just a .108 ISO to lefties, but his expected ISO in that split is nearly 100 points higher at .205. His fastball against left-handed hitters is even more concerning, with a gap of nearly 200 percentage points between his actual ISO and expected ISO on that pitch. That’s one of the largest discrepancies you’ll find. While the sample is admittedly small, it’s a flashing regression warning sign.

Ohtani is completely matchup-proof. He’s a generational hitter who can go deep against anybody, and when you can get him at 3-to-1 or better — especially when there’s a regression candidate on the mound — it’s worth a look.

If you’ve already hit a pick earlier in the night and want to add a fun late-game play, Ohtani at +350 fits the bill perfectly. The metrics suggest hitters will eventually catch up to Rodriguez this season.

Home Run Notes for Monday, June 1

A few more spots worth keeping in mind for your MLB home run bets today:

• Jacob deGrom is on the hill at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, where temperatures are projected to hit 80 degrees. Despite a solid season overall, deGrom has already allowed 13 home runs — nine of them to left-handed hitters. Cardinals left-handed bats are worth a look in this spot.

• Chase Field in Arizona is projected to be 97 degrees outside, but the roof will be closed for the Dodgers-Diamondbacks game. Chase has a roof, but it could be a bit more stuffy inside. It’s a great park for bats, regardless, you just won’t be getting the same edge as if this near-100-degree game were being played outdoors.

• Bullpen alert: The bullpen landscape is worth noting today. The Angels have allowed 31 home runs this season, the Rockies and Reds each sit at 34, and the Nationals lead the group at 37 — just one behind the MLB-worst Astros. Washington hosts the Marlins at 6:45 p.m. ET, making them a prime target for late-game power bets.

Good luck Monday. Let’s start the week with some winners!