We’re back for another week of baseball action, and we’re zeroing in on the Monday main slate for our MLB home run picks today. There are not many ideal hitting environments out there, but a few matchups still pop when you blend the weather, pitching profiles, and prices on Hard Rock Bet.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, April 20
- Kyle Stowers +400 (Cardinals vs. Marlins – 6:40pm ET)
- Cal Raleigh +350 (Athletics vs. Mariners – 9:40pm ET)
- Drake Baldwin +575 (Braves vs. Nationals 6:45pm ET)
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Kyle Stowers +400
We’ll start in Miami, where Michael McGreevy and the Cardinals visit the Marlins. This park isn’t usually the first place you think of for home run upside, but relative to the rest of Monday’s slate, the hitting environment is perfectly acceptable.
According to Baseball Savant, McGreevy sits in just the 11th percentile in barrel rate so far in 2026, which is a red flag for a pitcher heading into a start against left-handed power. He’s also running a ground-ball rate below the league average and allowing roughly a league-average hard-hit rate, so there is plenty of room for damage when hitters elevate the ball.
From a splits standpoint, I’m looking to attack McGreevy with lefties. He has allowed just a .155 ISO to left-handed hitters this season, which looks fine on the surface, but his expected ISO sits way higher at .357, per AddMoreFunds, suggesting he’s been more than a little fortunate so far in terms of limiting left-handed power.
Stowers just came off the injured list but didn’t miss a beat, collecting two hits on Sunday, so I’m willing to set aside my usual hesitation about hitters in their first game or two back.
He enjoyed a breakout 2025 campaign and posted a .302 ISO against right-handed pitching last season, which is exactly the kind of profile we want against a righty who’s leaking barrels and seeing his fly-ball rate tick up.
It is a small 2026 sample, but McGreevy’s fly-ball rate is roughly nine percentage points higher than it was last year, which only strengthens the case for a Stowers long ball. At this number and in this matchup, Stowers is one of my favorite home run picks today.
Bonus Home Run Pick for Cards-Marlins: Owen Caissie +650
Another left-handed bat I like at a strong price is Owen Caissie of the Marlins at +650. He’s been relatively quiet in the power department since the first week of the season, but the odds more than account for the recent lull.
The Cards’ bullpen has allowed just eight home runs so far this season, but the group owns a 5.40 ERA, the fourth-worst mark in baseball. That kind of disconnect between run prevention and home runs allowed usually evens out over time.
MLB Home Run Prediction Today: Cal Raleigh +350
Now to Seattle, where Cal Raleigh checks in at +350 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook at home against the Athletics and right-hander J.T. Ginn.
Normally, I don’t love targeting hitters at T-Mobile Park, especially when temperatures are projected to be south of 70 degrees, but if anyone can muscle a ball through this type of environment, it’s Raleigh.
We don’t have to spend too much time explaining what Raleigh does well. Instead, let’s talk about Ginn. In a small 2026 sample, he’s kept the ball on the ground and limited barrels, but we’re only talking about 16-ish innings, and I’m not ready to declare him a totally different pitcher yet.
Last season tells a different story. Ginn was much better against right-handed hitters than lefties. Left-handed bats posted a 26% home run-to-fly-ball rate against him, and per FanGraphs, they slugged .630 with 10 home runs in 38 innings.
Ginn was understandably worse at Sutter Health Park, but all things considered, Raleigh still makes sense.
Top Anytime HR Bet: Braves vs. Jake Irvin
For the final section, we have to talk about Jake Irvin and the Braves’ left-handed power. If the weather at Nationals Park were even close to neutral, I might have written up every lefty in this lineup as standalone home run predictions. Instead, this becomes more of a “small sprinkle only” situation.
Per Kevin Roth’s weather analysis at PropFinder, conditions in D.C. are ugly — cold, poor for carry, and generally unfriendly for home run chasing. But from a matchup standpoint, Irvin is still the obvious arm to attack.
In 2025, Irvin allowed a staggering 26 home runs to left-handed hitters and 38 home runs overall. So far in 2026, he’s once again leaning on his fastball nearly 40% of the time to lefties, just like last year.
Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson are my favorite home run targets here. Baldwin sits at +575, and Olson is +400 on Hard Rock Bet, which are still attractive numbers in a vacuum for this matchup.
Given those conditions, it might be more reasonable to look at total bases or hits + runs + RBIs player props for these guys. However, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better matchup for left-handed power on any slate.
MLB Home Run Notes for April 20
Here are some notes to consider when making your MLB home run predictions today:
- Four games, including today’s morning game, are projected to have first-pitch temperatures below 55 degrees.
- Only three games are expected to be north of 70 degrees at game time, which goes a long way toward explaining why true “slam dunk” home run best bets are scarce today.
On the bullpen side
- The Nationals’ bullpen is tied for the league lead with 22 home runs allowed, which adds extra appeal to Braves’ bats even in rough weather.
- The Astros’ bullpen has also surrendered 22 homers, so if you want to pick on Spencer Arrighetti, there are still outs for your HR props once Houston goes to the pen.
- The Reds and Braves have the two best bullpen ERAs in baseball and have combined to allow just nine home runs this season, while the Marlins’ bullpen has allowed a league-low three homers so far.
And yes, Shohei Ohtani is on the slate at Coors Field. His Hard Rock Bet home run line is sitting inside 2-to-1 at +175. That number speaks for itself — you’re paying a tax for the name and the park.
On a slate this thin for weather, keeping your home run stakes small, picking your spots carefully, and embracing the variance is the best way to enjoy the sweat without overextending your bankroll. Good luck!
All referenced odds are subject to change.
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