MLB Home Run Picks Today: HR Predictions for Friday (June 12)

Happy Friday! We’ve got a loaded slate of MLB home run picks for June 12 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. There’s one true anomaly on the board tonight that we have to address right out of the gate, plus a couple of other juicy power spots. Let’s dive into the best home run bets for today.

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, June 12

• Tyler Soderstrom +230 (Rockies at Athletics – Las Vegas Ballpark – 10:05 p.m. ET)

• Ketel Marte +275 (Diamondbacks at Reds – Great American Ball Park – 7:15 p.m. ET)

• Andy Pages +425 (Dodgers at White Sox – Rate Field – 7:40 p.m. ET)

MLB Home Run Best Bet: Tyler Soderstrom

The elephant in the room is the Athletics vs. Rockies game being played in Nevada. Hard Rock Bet has the total listed at a staggering 13.5 runs. That’s pure insanity, but it’s warranted!

Even elite Coors Field games typically don’t get listed that high. And this isn’t a fluke; just this past Monday, we saw 29 runs at this venue between the Athletics and Brewers at the Las Vegas Ballpark. Expect more chaos tonight.

It’s projected to be in the high 90s, and frankly, it barely matters who pitches for Colorado. It could even be a bullpen game, which bodes terribly for them — MLB.com has yet to list a starter as of Friday afternoon.

Anybody in this game is live to go deep given the conditions, but I’m rolling with Tyler Soderstrom at +230 on Hard Rock Bet. Other sluggers on this team, like Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers, are priced inside 2-to-1, but I want at least a little value.

Soderstrom packs plenty of power as a left-handed bat. He may not be at the torrid pace he was at last season, but he still has 11 home runs on the year with an 11% barrel rate — well above league average — and ranks in the 73rd percentile in hard-hit rate, according to Baseball Savant.

He’s also on a heater, with three home runs across his last three appearances, including two bombs in that monstrous 29-run game we just talked about. He clearly likes the new Nevada elements. The price is fair, and he’s my favorite home run pick of the day.

MLB Home Run Pick: Ketel Marte

Next, we’ll head to Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati for a 7:15 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Reds host the Diamondbacks. Nick Lodolo takes the bump for Cincinnati after a delayed start to his season due to a blister, and he’s been terrible. In fact, he’s been one of the worst pitchers in baseball by the underlying metrics.

Lodolo ranks in just the second percentile in expected ERA and the seventh percentile in barrel rate allowed. That’s nightmare fuel at a launching pad like Cincinnati, and he’s only keeping the ball on the ground at an average clip with league-average hard contact.

Enter Ketel Marte, who has developed into one of the best hitters in baseball over the last couple of years. You can grab him at +275 on Hard Rock Bet. Lodolo has surrendered seven home runs to right-handed hitters in just 88 at-bats this season, and righties are slugging .545 against him.

Marte can do damage from both sides of the plate, and given Lodolo’s terrible form — high chase rate aside, he simply isn’t anywhere near 100% right now.

The weather should be in the high 70s in a great hitting environment. Marte ranks in the 89th percentile in expected slugging percentage with an 11% barrel rate, per Baseball Savant. He has 11 home runs in 2026 and hit 64 home runs combined across 2024 and 2025. This guy is peaking, and I like his odds to go deep tonight.

Home Run Pick: Andy Pages

We’ll move to the White Sox vs. Dodgers game at 7:40 p.m. ET, where we’re targeting White Sox pitcher Anthony Kay. Kay has been absolutely beaten up by right-handed hitters this season. Righties have nine home runs and nine doubles against him in 180 at-bats, and they’re slugging .511.

Like fellow southpaw Lodolo, Kay has been a really bad pitcher this year, ranking in just the seventh percentile in expected ERA and giving up a double-digit barrel rate, which is good for just the 19th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.

We’re looking for a right-handed Dodgers bat, and I’m targeting Andy Pages at +425 on Hard Rock Bet, which I think is a generous price. Pages doesn’t have a ton of at-bats against lefties this year, but he does have three home runs and seven doubles in 63 at-bats while slugging .524 against them. He’s turned into one of the better-hitting outfielders in baseball, and at just 25 years old, he’s not even in his prime yet.

Pages ranks in the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate and sits above league average in both bat speed and expected slugging percentage. More home runs are certainly in the cards, especially against lefties. As a bonus, the Prop Finder weather app shows a nice boost of winds potentially blowing out to left-center field tonight.

MLB Home Run Notes for Today

A couple of additional notes worth keeping in mind for your MLB home run bets today:

• The Las Vegas Ballpark, where the Athletics are playing this week, is home to their Triple-A affiliate, the Las Vegas Aviators. The A’s will eventually move into their new stadium closer to the city of Las Vegas, which is expected to open in 2028.

• If you look up the minor league numbers at the Las Vegas Ballpark, the runs per game, home runs per game, and overall slash lines are through the roof. With the middle of summer arriving and extreme heat in the forecast, expect runs galore — great for offensive fireworks, but a potential nightmare for pitching depth and bullpen decisions, and a recipe for some long games.

Good luck on Friday. Let’s start the weekend with some winners!

More ways to play

If you’re already in on today’s action, Florida players can also check out Real Money Games powered by Past Motor Racing, only on Hard Rock Bet. It’s a way to play fast-paced, real money games that fit seamlessly alongside game day.