Happy Monday! We’re back with some MLB home run picks for June 22 on Hard Rock Bet. Let’s kick off a new week in the right direction with three hot bats in great matchups.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, June 22
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Willson Contreras +325 (Red Sox at Rockies – Coors Field – 8:40 p.m. ET)
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Byron Buxton +200 (Dodgers at Twins – Target Field – 7:40 p.m. ET)
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Jackson Chourio +350 (Brewers at Reds – Great American Ball Park – 7:10 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Willson Contreras
We’ll start at Coors Field, where the Red Sox visit the Rockies for an 8:40 p.m. ET first pitch. I’m rolling with Willson Contreras to go deep at +325 on Hard Rock Bet.
Ryan Feltner has shown reverse-split tendencies this season, allowing a .265 expected ISO to right-handed hitters while striking out just 15% of them. The Red Sox have plenty of viable lefty options, but Feltner has actually been a bit better against left-handed bats — not perfect, but better. That said, I’m going with the right-hander Contreras, who is no stranger to reverse-split power himself.
The right-handed slugger owns a .227 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and dating back to the beginning of last year, he sits right around .200 in that split. Now he gets the luxury of Coors Field elevation, and we’re getting better than 3-to-1 on him.
Feltner ranks in just the 15th percentile in barrel rate and the 14th percentile in hard-hit rate, according to Baseball Savant — he’s no stranger to hard contact. There’s a really good chance Contreras puts the meat of the bat on the baseball tonight. The Rockies’ bullpen is objectively terrible, so once Feltner departs, it only helps the cause.
MLB Home Run Pick: Byron Buxton
Next, we’ll head to Target Field in Minnesota for a 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch, where the Twins host the Dodgers in an interleague battle. There are a lot of things working in Byron Buxton’s favor today, and even at just a 2-to-1 number, I absolutely love it.
The guy is hotter than a pistol and enjoying arguably the best season of his career, so I don’t mind the subpar odds when the matchup is this good.
Eric Lauer is the underwhelming southpaw projected to start for the Dodgers, and he’s doing nothing well to prevent home runs. He’s allowing a .245 expected ISO to right-handed hitters and ranks in just the 5th percentile in ground-ball rate. Additionally, he’s in just the 10th percentile in barrel rate, while sitting around league average in hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant. Lauer has already surrendered 12 home runs to right-handed hitters this season.
Buxton is almost matchup-proof at this point. He owns a .262 expected ISO against left-handed pitching this season, and his under-the-hood metrics are awesome — 88th percentile in hard-hit rate, 98th percentile in barrel rate (around 18.5%), and 91st percentile in expected slugging. Buxton has 24 home runs on the year with a .591 slugging percentage, and he’s in fantastic shape to go yard early tonight.
Home Run Pick: Jackson Chourio
We’ll close at Great American Ball Park, where the Reds host the Brewers. Brady Singer is projected to take the bump for Cincinnati, and I’m rolling with Jackson Chourio at +350, which are some really generous odds for a hitter this hot.
Chourio has been absolutely on fire in June, hitting eight home runs this month with a .695 slugging percentage. He’s truly come alive, and this looks like the breakout we’ve seen flashes of in the past and have been waiting on again this year. Overall in 2026, Chourio carries a .252 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Singer has been brutal against both sides of the plate. He’s allowing a .250 ISO to right-handed hitters, giving up an 11% barrel rate, and ranks in just the 25th percentile in hard-hit rate.
There also looks to be a breeze potentially blowing out to right-center field tonight — and if that holds, I’d argue these odds are even more generous.
MLB Home Run Notes for Monday
A few more things to keep in mind for your MLB home run bets today:
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Weather is a touch cooler nationally, but I feel good about our spots. It should be around 85 degrees at Coors Field with a breeze blowing out to left-center, mid-70s at Target Field (fine for Buxton), and low-70s at Great American Ball Park with a possible breeze out to right-center — and that park is such a great hitting environment that I’m comfortable there regardless.
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Cooler spots to note: There are five games on today’s slate where temperatures are projected below 70 degrees, so the hot-hitting weather isn’t as widespread to kick off the week. Keep that in mind when scanning for additional home run bets.
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Bullpen alert: The Reds’ bullpen has given up 43 home runs with the fifth-worst bullpen ERA — good for Chourio. The Rockies’ bullpen has allowed 45 home runs with the second-worst bullpen ERA in baseball – good for Contreras. And while we’re not targeting them, the Nationals (also playing today) have surrendered an MLB-high 55 home runs this year.
Good luck Monday. Let’s start the week with some winners!
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