Friday’s MLB slate has some fantastic power matchups, and we’re locked in on the best MLB home run picks today for April 10. Cold weather and volatile pitching leashes have made home run predictions today challenging, but a few spots on the board are starting to pop as things heat up. Let’s break down where the value is on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, April 10
- Elly De La Cruz +450 (Angels @ Reds – 6:45pm ET)
- Christian Yelich +500 (Nationals @ Brewers – 7:40pm ET)
- Kerry Carpenter +425 (Marlins @ Tigers – 6:40pm ET)
- Riley Greene +475 (Marlins @ Tigers – 6:40pm ET)
MLB Home Run Pick: Elly De La Cruz
The Cincinnati Reds’ Elly De La Cruz takes on Jack Kochanowicz of the Los Angeles Angels at Great American Ballpark, and this matchup checks a lot of boxes.
Kochanowicz gave up 17 home runs to left-handed hitters last season, who slugged .536 against him. His sinker played well against lefties, but his fastball and changeup were a different story — he threw them a combined 40% of the time to left-handed hitters across 2025 and 2026, and lefties posted expected ISO rates well north of .200 against both pitches.
We’re getting Elly’s good side of the platoon here. In 2025, De La Cruz had a .209 ISO against right-handed pitchers and a monstrous .348 ISO against left-handed fastballs. The odds on Hard Rock Bet sit at +450, which is solid value in this day and age.
The kicker? Great American Ballpark is one of the best hitting environments in baseball, and it’s expected to be around 70 degrees with wind blowing out. This is one of my favorite home run predictions today.
- April 10 Home Run Pick: Elly De La Cruz
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Christian Yelich
The Milwaukee Brewers host right-hander Jake Irvin of the Washington Nationals, and this is a terrific spot for Christian Yelich. The Brewers have a roof, which matters a lot if they choose to close it, especially when so many games around the league are being played in cold weather this time of year.
Irvin gave up a monstrous 38 home runs overall last season — 26 of them to left-handed hitters — while allowing a .554 slugging percentage and a .268 ISO against lefties. Yelich logged a .230 ISO against right-handed pitchers last season and is the obvious power lefty bat to target in this lineup.
At +500 on Hard Rock Bet, the price seems generous against a pitcher who surrendered 26 bombs to lefties. According to Baseball Savant, Irvin checks in at just the 7th percentile in barrel rate, and he was even worse in 2025, ranking in the 3rd percentile in barrel rate and 7th percentile in hard-hit percentage. Yikes.
- April 10 Home Run Pick: Christian Yelich
MLB Home Run Prediction: Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene
The Detroit Tigers take on Chris Paddack of the Miami Marlins at Comerica Park. The hitting weather isn’t ideal from a temperature standpoint, but wind is expected to blow out to right and right-center field, which is a nice bump for left-handed power. The matchup is too good to pass up despite the poor temps.
Paddack basically throws two pitches to lefties, and left-handed hitters posted serious power numbers against both in 2025 while he allowed a fly-ball rate north of 40%.
Kerry Carpenter is borderline unplayable against lefties, but against righties, he mashed 23 home runs in 373 at-bats with a .512 slugging percentage last season. Riley Greene was a true breakout candidate in 2025 and has reached star-level status. You can get Carpenter and Greene at +425 and +475 on HRB.
- April 10 Home Run Picks: Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene
Home Run Betting Notes for Friday
-
Hunter Goodman vs. Walker Buehler: Buehler has been rough to start the year and was more of a reverse-splits pitcher in 2025, allowing an ISO worse than .200 to right-handed hitters. That’s right in Goodman’s wheelhouse — he posted a .352 ISO against righties last season. He’s +450 on Hard Rock Bet.
-
Bullpen power leaks: Three MLB bullpens have already given up at least 10 home runs this season — the Houston Astros, Washington Nationals, and Toronto Blue Jays. The Nationals have given up 15, which bodes well for Yelich. Scouting the starter is the bulk of home run research, but there are nine innings to play, and bullpen power numbers are overlooked.
-
Weather watch: Only two games are projected to be 70 degrees or warmer at first pitch — Reds vs. Angels at Great American Ballpark and Braves vs. Guardians at Truist Park in Atlanta. Slade Cecconi has been solid to start the year, but gave up serious power last season, so Braves hitters in that environment are worth a look.
-
April unit sizes: Home run prop bets this time of year are tough. Cold weather and small sample sizes make April the trickiest month for chasing the long ball. As advanced metrics become more predictive and the weather warms up, the matchups will sharpen. For now, keep it fun, always stay within your limits, and enjoy the sweat.
Good luck, and have a great weekend!
All referenced odds are subject to change.
