Happy Monday! We’re kicking off a new work week with some MLB home run picks for August 10 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. We have a decent little slate, and I’m attacking a few hitters in matchups that are simply too good to ignore.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, August 10
- Wilyer Abreu +275 (Red Sox at Blue Jays – Rogers Centre – 7:07 p.m. ET)
- Willson Contreras +375 (Red Sox at Blue Jays – Rogers Centre – 7:07 p.m. ET)
- Pete Alonso +300 (Orioles at Twins – Target Field – 7:40 p.m. ET)
- Junior Caminero +200 (Rays at Athletics – Sutter Health Park – 9:40 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Pick: Wilyer Abreu
We’ll start with the first game on the slate as the Blue Jays host the Red Sox at Rogers Centre at 7:07 p.m. ET. Jameson Taillon is set to make his first appearance for Toronto following his trade from Chicago, and he has simply been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this season.
Taillon has allowed the third-most home runs among MLB starters, surrendering 26 long balls already. He has given up six homers across his past three outings, and I’m willing to bet that he gives up at least one more Monday. Why not Wilyer Abreu?
Abreu has hit 15 home runs against right-handed pitching this season and already has four more in August. The 27-year-old has really come into his own over the last couple of years, and the advanced metrics are just as encouraging as the production.
According to Baseball Savant, Abreu is well above league average in bat speed, launch-angle sweet-spot rate, and hard-hit rate, while his barrel rate and expected slugging percentage sit comfortably in the 80th-percentile range.
Taillon has been a total disaster against left-handed hitters, allowing a massive .310 ISO to that side of the plate. Over a meaningful sample, that is one of the worst marks you’ll ever see from a pitcher still taking regular turns in a Major League rotation.
Abreu is hot, he has the platoon advantage, and +300 is a very nice number for a hitter with this much power.
MLB Home Run Pick: Willson Contreras
We’re doubling up in Toronto with Willson Contreras at +375. As bad as Taillon has been against lefties, he has been nearly as rough against right-handed hitters, allowing a .255 ISO to that side of the plate.
Contreras has never had an issue with reverse splits, and that remains true this season. He owns a .238 ISO against right-handed pitching, and he brings an absolutely ridiculous advanced profile into this matchup.
According to Baseball Savant, Contreras ranks in the 97th percentile in bat speed, the 92nd percentile in barrel rate, and the 93rd percentile in expected slugging percentage.
That is precisely what we want when we’re home run hunting. The power is real, the quality of contact is elite, and he gets a pitcher who has been getting absolutely tattooed by hitters from both sides.
Contreras has not hit a home run yet in August, but this is a get-right spot of all get-right spots. The matchup is too juicy, and +375 is more than enough of a number to take a shot.
MLB Home Run Pick: Pete Alonso
Next, we’ll head to Target Field as the Twins host the Orioles at 7:40 p.m. ET. Dean Kremer gets the ball for Minnesota against his former team, and there has really been only one Oriole consistently doing damage at the plate this year: the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso.
Kremer has allowed a massive .270 ISO to right-handed hitters this season, and his numbers over the past 30 days have been right in line with those season-long struggles. He has been vulnerable to power, and that is a problem against someone like Alonso.
Since the beginning of last season, Alonso owns a .287 expected ISO against right-handed pitching. He has been exactly as advertised since coming over to Baltimore, piling up 25 home runs this season. He is also coming off a huge Sunday in which he collected three hits and two monster homers, so he could be grease-fire hot at exactly the right time.
The Twins bullpen has been surprisingly bad, too, owning a 4.79 ERA this season — the fifth-worst mark in baseball. That is always a nice little bonus on a home run prop, even if Kremer manages to avoid trouble early. Alonso at +300 is a number I’m happy to play.
MLB Home Run Prediction: Junior Caminero
Finally, we’ll go to Sutter Health Park in Sacramento as the Athletics host the Rays at 9:40 p.m. ET. Temperatures should be in the high 80s, with a slight breeze blowing out, and we all know Sutter plays like a baby ballpark.
Lefty Jacob Lopez is set to take the mound for the A’s. He has been a little unlucky this year overall, but he is still carrying an ugly ERA and has allowed an ISO north of .200 to right-handed hitters. His expected ISO is lower, but I can’t help myself here.
Junior Caminero is putting together a career year, sporting a .242 ISO with 33 home runs already. He is slugging .531 against left-handed pitching this season, and, of course, his advanced metrics are through the roof.
Hard Rock Bet has posted a 9.5-run total for this game, which tells us there should be scoring in Sacramento.
Caminero at +200 is a tighter price, but it’s warranted in a tiny ballpark, great hitting weather, and a matchup that puts him in a spot to keep mashing.
Good luck Monday!
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