Happy Monday! We’re back after the holiday weekend to hunt some home runs on July 6 with MLB home run picks on Hard Rock Bet. Hope everyone had a great Fourth — let’s dive into my favorite home run picks for today!
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, July 6
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Kyle Schwarber +240 (Phillies at Royals – 2:10 p.m. ET)
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James Wood +250 (Astros at Nationals – 6:45 p.m. ET)
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Hunter Goodman +220 (Rockies at Dodgers – 10:10 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber
We’ll start with the early game as the Royals host the Phillies at 2:10 p.m. ET. Noah Cameron is on the bump for Kansas City, and admittedly, he’s been much better than he was at the start of the year when I was fading him just about every fifth day.
That said, he still ranks below league average in pretty much every metric, which tells you just how rough his early season really was.
Cameron keeps the ball on the ground at a below-average rate, gives up an above-average amount of barrels, and doesn’t miss many bats. He’s only allowed three home runs to left-handed hitters this season, but a lot of teams simply don’t roll out lefties against him, so the sample is small. However, his expected ISO allowed against lefties is all the way up at .230 in that sample.
I’m willing to roll the dice on any of the three power-hitting lefties in this Phillies lineup: Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, and Kyle Schwarber.
Schwarber is my main pick at +240 on Hard Rock Bet, and he’s been essentially lefty-lefty proof his entire career. I also want to sprinkle a little Brandon Marsh at +700, which is a crazy number for a guy with 15 home runs.
Marsh hasn’t played as much against lefties (just three homers in 87 at-bats), so if he’s in the lineup today, sprinkle him alongside Schwarber.
MLB Home Run Pick: James Wood
Next, we’ll head to the nation’s Capital for a 6:45 p.m. ET first pitch as the Nationals host the Astros. Mike Burrows takes the hill for Houston sporting a 5.58 ERA, and it’s been a tale of two stories depending on which side of the plate he’s facing.
Against right-handed hitters, Burrows has allowed a respectable .151 ISO with a .120 expected ISO. But he’s struggled mightily against lefties, who own a .252 ISO against him and have specifically feasted on his fastball and curveball.
That’s not great news against the top of Washington’s order — especially James Wood, who’s having an unbelievable campaign. Wood carries a .285 ISO with a .360 expected ISO against right-handed pitching, meaning he’s arguably been a touch unlucky and there’s even more juice to squeeze.
Burrows sits below league average in barrel rate and ground-ball rate allowed, according to Baseball Savant, and he’s already given up 13 home runs to left-handed hitters this season. You can get James Wood at +250 on Hard Rock Bet, so fire it up — he’s my favorite home run pick today.
MLB Home Run Pick: Hunter Goodman
Goodman is my second-favorite play, coming in a late-night hammer at 10:10 p.m. ET as the Rockies visit the Dodgers. Eric Lauer is set to take the bump for Los Angeles.
Lauer, a southpaw, is having an absolutely miserable 2026. He owns a 4.84 ERA with an expected ERA north of 5.00, ranking in just the 9th percentile in barrel rate allowed (11.4%) and the 5th percentile in strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant. He’s also doing a terrible job keeping the ball on the ground. Lauer has surrendered 17 home runs already, 13 of them to right-handed hitters.
If the shoe fits, wear it. Goodman is the chalky answer to who’s most likely to go deep against Lauer — but he’s the right answer. Goodman is having an awesome season, and it’s great to see him firing on all cylinders. He’s sporting a .281 ISO against left-handed pitching, and that’s no fluke, as he’s posted a similar number dating back to the beginning of last year.
Goodman ranks in the 97th percentile in barrel rate and the 88th percentile in bat speed, so you can’t just call him a Coors Field merchant — he’s hitting the ball everywhere.
In fact, he has 18 home runs on the road compared to nine at home for a whopping 27 total, and we’re not even at the All-Star break. Goodman is +220 to go yard, and you could argue he should be inside 2-to-1 every night.
MLB Home Run Notes for Monday, July 6
A few more things to keep in mind for your home run bets today:
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Weather watch in D.C. There’s a chance of storms in the Nationals’ game, but I think it finishes regardless of any in-game delay. Temperatures should be in the mid-80s at a minimum tonight.
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Smaller slate, hot spots. It’s just seven games to pick from, and the Royals vs. Phillies and Cardinals vs. Brewers games appear to have the hottest temperatures today.
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Exploitable bullpens. The Royals’ pen remains atrocious with the second-worst bullpen ERA in baseball, having coughed up 51 home runs this season. The Astros, meanwhile, have seen some positive regression but have ironically also allowed 51 home runs in 2026. There’s damage to be done once the starters exit for a couple of our picks.
Good luck Monday. Let’s start the week with some winners!
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