Let’s get into MLB home run picks for Monday, August 3, on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. We’ve got three power bats I love in great matchups tonight, so let’s go hunting for dingers.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Monday, August 3
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James Wood +240 (Nationals at Phillies – Citizens Bank Park – 6:40 p.m. ET)
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Esmerlyn Valdez +350 (Pirates at Brewers – American Family Field – 7:40 p.m. ET)
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Daulton Varsho +450 (Blue Jays at Astros – Daikin Park – 8:10 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Best Bet: James Wood
We’ll start at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 p.m. ET as the Phillies host the Nationals, where Aaron Nola is set to take the bump — and Nola has been doing Aaron Nola things this year.
Nola owns a 5.61 ERA, though advanced metrics dub him a bit unlucky, with an expected ERA down at 4.33. That’s still not good, but it’s much lower than his actual mark. However, he ranks in just the 31st percentile in hard-hit rate while allowing a double-digit barrel rate and keeping the ball on the ground at a below-average clip.
Nola has given up 16 home runs to left-handed hitters this year, and those lefties are slugging .528 against him. Over the last couple of seasons, he’s also allowed a really high pull-air rate — north of 20% each of the last three years — which is a strong indicator that hitters are getting around the baseball on him.
Add in a career-high fly-ball rate and a decent clip of barrels, especially to lefties, and these are exactly the things you want when you’re hunting for home runs.
To no surprise, this is where James Wood steps in at +240 on Hard Rock Bet, and I don’t have a problem paying a slightly tighter price in such a great matchup.
There could be some rain, and it’ll be muggy in Philly, with maybe a slight breeze blowing out to right-center.
Wood is a monster having a fantastic year, and I could cite a CVS-receipt’s worth of advanced metrics on him, but we’ll just leave it at a .347 expected ISO against right-handed pitching, which is absolutely nuts. He has 30 home runs this year, 21 against righties. The kid is a true superstar.
MLB Home Run Pick: Esmerlyn Valdez
Next, we’ll go to Milwaukee, as the Brewers host the Pirates at 7:40 p.m. ET, and I’m rolling with Esmerlyn Valdez to go deep at +350 on Hard Rock Bet.
On the mound for Milwaukee is Brandon Sproat, who has allowed some reverse-splits power this year with an ISO allowed north of .200, meaning he’s given up more power to right-handed hitters.
That plays right into Valdez, who appears to be the best reverse-splits power bat in the Pittsburgh lineup among righties. Yes, the Pirates have some powerful lefty bats too, but this matchup points to the right-handed side, and Valdez carries a massive .283 ISO against right-handed pitching so far this year. This kid is really coming into his own with 14 home runs, and the advanced metrics love him.
He hasn’t qualified for a lot of them yet, but per Baseball Savant, his bat speed would rank well above average, and his barrel rate and hard-hit rate are through the roof at elite levels — at least in a small sample. It’s a great matchup, and I’ll take him at a nice price to go deep.
MLB Home Run Pick Tonight: Daulton Varsho
For my last home run prediction today, we’ll head to Houston as the Astros host the Blue Jays at 8:10 p.m. ET, with Cristian Javier slated to take the mound for Houston.
We haven’t seen much of Javier the last couple of years due to injuries and a general fall-off, but what we know about his entire career is that he’s always loved giving up fly balls, his pull-air rate has been really high, and he’s never been a stranger to hard contact.
When he isn’t striking hitters out, there are plenty of batted balls in the air — and with years of sample size, I don’t think that’s changing.
He’s also thrown his fastball more than 50% of the time in his 21.1 innings this season, so he’s very predictable. That brings me to Daulton Varsho to go deep for Toronto at +450 on Hard Rock Bet. He’s had a pretty miserable year and is in the middle of a terrible slide. I usually don’t take a hitter this out of form, but this is such a great matchup that I’m making an exception.
Over the last couple of years collectively, Varsho has been an absolute righty-masher, and now he draws a fly-ball-prone, fastball-heavy righty. If he’s ever going to break out and hit one, tonight looks like it could be the night.
MLB Home Run Notes for Monday, August 3
I only have one big note today, but it’s an important one:
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Wait for the trade deadline. The MLB trade deadline hits later this afternoon at 6:00 p.m. ET, so my take is to hold off on placing your wagers until then so you know who’s on the move. If a player gets traded, your bet typically gets voided, and your money returned — not the end of the world, but a bi of a pain.
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Historic seller’s market. We’re shaping up for a historic deadline; I can’t remember so many sellers and so many teams willing to move big names at once. With a lockout looming, some clubs are taking a different approach, and that’s thrown a big wrench into what we might see today.
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Fireworks already flying. We’ve already seen huge moves with Tarik Skubal and Luis Arraez on the move, and there should be more over the next couple of hours — so keep an eye on the news before tonight’s games.
Good luck Monday. Let’s cash some tickets!
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