Happy Friday! We’re back with MLB home run picks for July 3 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. There’s a heat wave gripping the country, and the ball should be flying, so let’s dive into three power bats I love on today’s slate.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, July 3
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Gunnar Henderson +325 (Orioles at Reds – Great American Ball Park – 7:10 p.m. ET)
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Byron Buxton TBD (Twins at Yankees – Yankee Stadium – 7:05 p.m. ET)
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Sal Stewart +325 (Orioles at Reds – Great American Ball Park – 7:10 p.m. ET)
All referenced odds are subject to change.
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Gunnar Henderson
We’ll start our day with the Orioles at Reds at Great American Ball Park. Brady Singer is on the mound for Cincinnati, and he’s having an absolutely horrible season — a 5.12 ERA with an expected ERA that’s even higher, according to Baseball Savant.
He ranks in just the 9th percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 31st percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. That’s integral because we’re intentionally fading him today and hunting for any lefty who can put a charge into the ball.
Left-handed hitters have already taken Singer deep 13 times this season. The Orioles’ lefties have been a bit underwhelming, but I’m in on Gunnar Henderson to go yard. He’s hitting toward the top of the order and should get at least five at-bats at an elite hitting venue, with Cincinnati baking under a high of 95 degrees.
That’s just elite hitting weather for a guy with serious pop and a great splits matchup. Give me Gunnar to hit a home run.
MLB Home Run Pick: Byron Buxton
Next, I’m looking at Byron Buxton of the Twins as they visit the Yankees in the Bronx. Buxton has missed a couple of days with his hip but hasn’t landed on the injured list, so my hope is he’s in the lineup today.
It feels a little weird hunting home runs against Gerrit Cole, but if there’s one Achilles’ heel he’s shown, it’s a tendency to yield fly balls. And it’s going to be an absolute scorcher in the Northeast — Yankee Stadium will be baking. Buxton, meanwhile, is putting together an arguable MVP campaign with 25 home runs at the top of Minnesota’s order, including eight in the month of June.
He’s also no stranger to reverse-split power: 21 of his 25 home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, and he’s slugging .614. Combine the weather, Cole’s fly-ball tendencies, and the level Buxton’s been playing at, and hopefully we get some good odds on him today.
MLB Home Run Pick: Sal Stewart
We’ll head back to Great American Ball Park. It’s just such a great venue, and this is another matchup I love. Reds’ first baseman Sal Stewart battles lefty Trevor Rogers at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Stewart has been very good against left-handers in a small sample this year, with five home runs and four doubles in just 78 at-bats — good for a .526 slugging percentage. Overall, he has 17 homers on the season and has lived up to the hype coming out of 2025.
Rogers, meanwhile, is a slightly below-average arm who keeps the ball on the ground at a below-average rate with a league-average hard-hit rate. He’s surrendered eight home runs to right-handed hitters this season — not astronomical, but his expected batting average is well below league average too.
According to Baseball Savant, Great American Ball Park is the sixth-best hitting environment in baseball, and I’ll gladly pair that with the unbelievable heat for a very positive matchup at the plate.
MLB Home Run Notes for Friday, July 3
A few more things to keep in mind for your home run bets today:
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Fireworks in Chicago: The Cardinals at Cubs at Wrigley Field (4:05 p.m. ET) has a run total sitting at 10.5, so oddsmakers expect some runs.
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Coors, as usual: The Giants at Rockies total is up at 11 — Vegas is implying a ton of scoring in Colorado.
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Sacramento heat: The Marlins at Athletics game at Sutter Health Park also has a 10.5 total posted.
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Bottom line: There are big double-digit over/unders all over the board, and you can tell we’re squarely in the heart of summer now.
Good luck Friday. Let’s cash some tickets!
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