Happy Friday! We’re back with MLB home run picks for July 24 on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s hunt some dingers to jump-start the weekend with three power bats I love on today’s slate.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, July 24
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Ketel Marte +300 (Diamondbacks at Nationals – Nationals Park – 6:45 p.m. ET)
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Corbin Carroll +350 (Diamondbacks at Nationals – Nationals Park – 6:45 p.m. ET)
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Shea Langeliers +275 (Athletics at Twins – Target Field – 8:10 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Ketel Marte +300
It’s always a pleasure when one of my “favorite” pitchers is on the mound — and yes, I’m being sarcastic. Zack Littell is starting for the Nationals, and we’re going to pick on him once again.
Washington is doing its best to hide him with an opener ahead of him. I don’t know why he’s still throwing a baseball every fifth day. What’s the point?
Littell has given up a massive 25 home runs this season, and his numbers are as ugly as they come. According to Baseball Savant, he owns a 6.45 expected ERA, ranks in just the 8th percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 9th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, and has only a 14% strikeout rate while giving up big-time exit velocity.
It’s amazing he has seven wins — his 5.34 ERA is nothing compared to that 6.45 xERA, so the advanced stuff says he should be even worse. Left-handed hitters really get to him, slugging .580 with 18 of those 25 home runs. The opener, lefty Carson Palmquist, has been ugly too, with an ERA north of 8.00.
Ketel Marte strikes me as a great home run pick here. His power numbers have dipped a touch against righties this season, but dating back to last year he still owns a .200 ISO, and he’s got 18 home runs on the year.
His advanced metrics remain strong — well above average in bat speed, expected slugging, and barrel rate. I love that he’s at the top of the order, and with the Diamondbacks on the road, they’re guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat.
If Arizona gets going, maybe Marte even gets six trips to the plate today. I’m in.
MLB Home Run Pick: Corbin Carroll +350
We’re doubling up on Diamondbacks today, because Corbin Carroll makes a ton of sense in the same spot. Carroll owns a .231 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, and over a larger sample dating back to last year, that number climbs even higher to .273.
Carroll ranks in the 79th percentile in barrel rate, the 83rd percentile in hard-hit rate, and the 90th percentile in bat speed. It’s amazing to see the power he’s developed since he broke into the league.
Weather-wise, it’s going to be about 80 degrees with cloudy skies in D.C., which is a fantastic spot for home runs. On top of it all, the Nationals’ bullpen has given up an atrocious 75 home runs — by far the most in baseball — so the edge stays alive even once Littell exits. Carroll is +350 on Hard Rock Bet, and I’m seeing some value here.
MLB Home Run Pick: Shea Langeliers +260
Next, we’ll head to Target Field for an 8:10 p.m. ET game as the Twins host the Athletics. I’m looking at Shea Langeliers, who’s having another awesome season with 23 home runs, 14 of them against right-handed pitching. He’s in a nice spot to hit his 15th tonight against Twins starter Zebby Matthews.
I’ve been really disappointed in Matthews as a Major League pitcher — his stuff just hasn’t translated from the minors like I thought it would. He might be a guy who figures it out pushing 30 and makes us say, “remember this guy?” but that’s not now.
He ranks in just the 3rd percentile in barrel rate allowed, doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, and owns a 4.78 expected ERA. He’s given up 15 home runs this season — not the worst mark, but he’s plenty hittable, and right-handed hitters are slugging .508 against him.
Langeliers is just a stud, and Matthews is one of the more vulnerable arms on this slate, especially against an elite righty who’s no stranger to reverse-split power.
Dating back to last season, Langeliers carries a .229 ISO against right-handed pitching. Temperatures in Minnesota will be north of 80 degrees, and the Twins’ bullpen has been surprisingly bad with an ERA north of 5.00 and 43 home runs allowed — not elite by any means.
It also helps that the A’s are on the road, guaranteeing a top-of-the-ninth at-bat, and every trip to the plate is critical when we’re hunting homers. Langeliers is +275 on Hard Rock Bet.
Good luck Friday. Let’s cash some tickets!
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