Happy Friday! We’re back with the best MLB home run picks for July 31 at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Let’s hunt some dingers to kick off the weekend with three power bats I love on today’s slate.
The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, July 31
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Pete Crow-Armstrong +275 (Yankees at Cubs – Wrigley Field – 2:20 p.m. ET)
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Jac Caglianone +275 (Royals at Rockies – Coors Field – 8:40 p.m. ET)
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Dominic Canzone +350 (Twins at Mariners – T-Mobile Park – 10:10 p.m. ET)
MLB Home Run Best Bet: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+275)
We’ll start early as the Cubs host the Yankees at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field, and we can grab Pete Crow-Armstrong at +275 to go deep. Will Warren has been underwhelming lately and profiles as a subpar Major League pitcher.
The Yanks’ righty has an expected ERA of 4.58, he gives up about a league-average amount of barrels, and he allows an above-average number of hard hits. Now awful, not great.
I usually like to pick on pitchers worse than Warren, but he simply hasn’t been good lately, and there’s a bonus here – the Yankees are coming off an extra-inning game where they burned a couple of high-leverage relievers, which dings a bullpen that’s typically decent.
Warren has given up 15 home runs this year, 10 of them to lefties, and he’s allowed a .201 ISO. He’s definitely attackable.
This is really about PCA, though. He owns a .294 ISO against right-handed pitching, and Warren throws his fastball roughly 40% of the time to lefties – a pitch PCA has crushed with fantastic power numbers this season.
PCA is having an MVP-caliber campaign, so I have no problem backing one of the best hitters in baseball in a plus matchup to open our Friday.
MLB Home Run Pick: Jac Caglianone (+275)
Next, we’ll head to Denver as the Rockies host the Royals at 8:40 p.m. ET. It’s always nice to have a home run pick in the altitude at Coors Field, and we’re going to pick on Tomoyuki Sugano.
Sugano somehow has 10 wins this year, but he owns a 4.69 ERA with a disgusting 7.27 expected ERA that ranks in the first percentile, per Baseball Savant. He might be the luckiest pitcher in baseball, and even his “lucky” mid-4.00s ERA isn’t good.
Sugano ranks in just the 2nd percentile in barrel rate allowed and the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, and gives up a very high average exit velocity – nothing here is good. He’s surrendered 20 home runs this year, 14 to left-handed hitters, who also own an ISO north of .300 against him.
This would be a screaming Vinnie Pasquantino spot, but he’s not in the lineup, so I like the two lefties toward the top of the order in Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone – and we’re rolling with Caglianone.
Caglianone owns an ISO better than .200 against right-handed pitching this season and is a very good right-handed-fastball hitter. He’s coming off a home run against the Twins with back-to-back multi-hit games, so he’s quietly trending back in the right direction as the calendar flips to August.
Temperatures will be in the low 80s at Coors Field, so conditions are just fine. You can get Caglianone at +275 at Hard Rock Bet, and I think that’s a really nice number – everything matches up perfectly here.
MLB Home Run Pick: Dominic Canzone (+350)
Finally, we’ll go to a ballpark I don’t normally target hitters in, but I love the matchup. The Mariners host the Twins at T-Mobile Park at 10:10 p.m. ET, and Zebby Matthews is set to take the bump for Minnesota.
If you’ve followed this series, you know I keep being wrong about him – Zebby has looked great in the minors but still hasn’t put it together at the big-league level. Maybe one day he will, but right now he isn’t missing many bats and gives up a decent clip of power.
Matthews has allowed a .188 ISO to left-handed hitters in 2026, but his expected ISO is all the way up at .202, meaning there’s more juice to squeeze there for power lefties.
Enter Dominic Canzone, who’s having a true breakout season with a .254 ISO against right-handed pitching. His advanced profile is what dreams are made of: expected slugging, average exit velocity, and barrel rate are all better than the 90th percentile, to go with an 84th-percentile hard-hit rate.
The guy is absolutely mashing. He has 18 home runs this year, 14 of them against right-handed pitching in just 235 at-bats. He hits the ball so hard that the venue doesn’t really matter, and this time he’s at home in T-Mobile Park anyway. I’ll take Canzone to go yard.
MLB Home Run Notes for Friday, July 31
A few extra things to keep in mind for your home run card today:
- Only afternoon game. Cubs vs. Yankees is the lone daytime matchup on the docket at 2:20 p.m. ET, so set your lineups and bets accordingly.
- Sacramento scorcher. Sutter Health Park in Sacramento is going to be hot with temperatures in the low 90s – likely low 80s at first pitch – but still a great, sunny hitting environment at a very tiny ballpark.
- Phillies rotation watch. As of Friday morning, per MLB.com, the Phillies still haven’t announced a starter, so keep an eye on that.
- Trade deadline season. It’s trade deadline time, so watch for any moves that could affect your home run picks and wagers today.
Good luck Friday. Let’s cash some tickets!
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