You’ve found my best home run picks for today, August 14! I’m targeting three power hitters in great spots on this jam-packed slate. Let’s get into the best MLB home run bets on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

The Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, August 14

• Tyler Soderstrom +400 (Rangers at Athletics — 9:40 p.m. ET)
• Jac Caglianone +260 (Royals at Angels — 9:38 p.m. ET)
• Ben Rice +325 (Yankees at Blue Jays — 7:15 p.m. ET)

MLB Home Run Pick: Tyler Soderstrom

We’ll begin at Sutter Health Park, where the Athletics host the Rangers. It’s a tiny ballpark in Sacramento, it’s August, and that is more than enough to put this game on the home run predictions radar.

Kumar Rocker gets the ball for Texas, and I’m looking to target him with left-handed power. Tyler Soderstrom fits the bill. He owns a slugging percentage north of .500 against right-handed pitching this season, while Rocker has surrendered an ISO above .200 to left-handed hitters.

Soderstrom has developed into a pretty dangerous power bat for the A’s over the years. Dating back to the start of 2025, he owns a .219 ISO against right-handed pitching, and his quality-of-contact profile checks out. He sits well above league average in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed, per Baseball Savant.

Those are the things we want to see when we’re considering a hitter in a park like Sutter Health. Rocker has allowed his share of damage, and this should be a smash spot for Soderstrom.

MLB Home Run Best Bet: Jac Caglianone

Next, we’ll head to Anaheim, where the Angels host the Royals. Grayson Rodriguez takes the mound for Los Angeles, and the advanced metrics are brutal.

Rodriguez was once one of the game’s most highly touted pitching prospects, but it simply has not clicked at the Major-League level. He ranks no better than the fifth percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average, and average exit velocity allowed. He is also in the first percentile — dead last — in hard-hit rate allowed.

Rodriguez also gives up barrels at an alarming rate and does not keep the ball on the ground. He has not logged a massive inning total this season, so we should be careful with the sample, but the underlying profile is exactly what we want to attack for home run best bets. It’s an obvious recipe for hunting power.

Jac Caglianone is the guy I want. Cags has been red-hot in August, slugging .773 with four home runs, and he is up to 21 long balls on the season. Fifteen of those have come against right-handed pitching, which makes sense given the amount of left-handed thunder he brings to the plate.

Caglianone has the kind of raw power that can change a game with one mistake, and Rodriguez has made plenty of those mistakes when he’s been on the mound. I like the spot a lot for Cags to leave the yard in Anaheim.

MLB Home Run Prediction: Ben Rice

For the final pick, we’ll go north of the border as the Blue Jays host the Yankees at Rogers Centre. Shane Bieber gets the ball for Toronto, and while the sample has been limited, his 5.48 ERA tells you plenty about how things have gone so far.

Bieber has allowed a .271 expected ISO to left-handed hitters, and that is a dangerous number against this version of the Yankees. Trent Grisham and Spencer Jones have both been swinging a hot bat this week, and they are absolutely live for a home run. But I’m taking the cream of the crop: Ben Rice.

Rice owns a ridiculous .313 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and has already hit 32 home runs. He ranks sixth in MLB in homers, trailing only Kyle Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero, Matt Olson, and Hunter Goodman.

His advanced metrics are through the roof. Rice sits in the 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage and barrel rate, and it is pretty obvious when you watch him: the guy absolutely mashes baseballs. A breakout superstar has arrived in the Bronx.

Rice may give you the shortest price of the Yankees lefties, but he also gives you the cleanest path to a long ball against a struggling Bieber. That’s enough for me to make him one of my favorite home run picks today.

MLB Home Run Leaders

Totals as of Thursday night:

• Kyle Schwarber, Phillies — 37 HR
• Yordan Alvarez, Astros — 35 HR
• Junior Caminero, Rays — 35 HR
• Matt Olson, Braves — 35 HR
• Hunter Goodman, Rockies — 34 HR
• Ben Rice, Yankees — 32 HR
• James Wood, Nationals — 30 HR
• C.J. Abrams, Nationals — 29 HR
• Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs — 27 HR
• Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers — 27 HR

MLB Pitchers: Most Home Runs Allowed

Totals as of Thursday night:

• Aaron Nola, Phillies — 30 HR allowed
• Shota Imanaga, Cubs — 28 HR allowed
• Jeffrey Springs, Athletics — 28 HR allowed
• Miles Mikolas, Nationals — 27 HR allowed
• Jameson Taillon, Blue Jays — 26 HR allowed
• Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks — 25 HR allowed
• Zack Littell, Diamondbacks — 25 HR allowed
• Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers — 24 HR allowed
• Tomoyuki Sugano, Rockies — 24 HR allowed
• Tanner Bibee, Guardians — 23 HR allowed

Keep in mind that home run props can be volatile — Good luck!

All referenced odds are subject to change.

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