MLB Best Bets & Props Today: NLDS Game 3 Picks and Predictions

We’ve got a pair of Game 3s in the NLDS today, and I’ve got three different plays across the two-game slate.

First, we have the Braves and Dodgers tied at one game apiece as the series heads to Atlanta, where ace Chris Sale is on the mound against Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

We saw this matchup already on August 27, when Atlanta won 1-0. Sale threw a shutout, while Yamamoto allowed one run in 6.1 innings.

Game 3 in a best-of-five means a lot. When a series is tied at one game apiece, the Game 3 winner has gone on to win the series more than 70% of the time.

Dodgers vs. Braves Best Bets & Props

I’m going to start with Chris Sale over 17.5 outs. You could even get this at 18.5 with plus money to the Over at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Chris Sale Over 17.5 Outs

I absolutely love Sale tonight.

He’s gotten at least 18 outs in 10 of his last 11 starts against Los Angeles. He owns a 1.13 ERA against the Dodgers with 18 strikeouts and zero walks, including that shutout on August 27.

At home, Sale is 21-5 with a 2.24 ERA at Truist Park since joining the Braves.

There are also some key matchups against Sale where Dodgers hitters have struggled. Kyle Tucker is 1-12 against him, while Shohei Ohtani is 3-15 with no home runs.

Dodgers vs. Braves F5 Under 2.5

I also love Yamamoto in the playoffs. He was absolutely phenomenal during the Dodgers’ World Series run.

In the last meeting between these starters, it was that 1-0 game.

Yamamoto has allowed one run to Atlanta in his career across 16.1 innings. He also has a 1.45 postseason road ERA, so pitching away from home doesn’t scare me.

The Dodgers are 0-9 with runners in scoring position this series, and Ohtani is in the longest home run drought of his career.

Playing the first five innings also keeps both bullpens out of it, which is good because I don’t trust the Braves bullpen at all.

Brewers vs. Padres Best Bets & Props

Now we move to the night game, where the Padres’ season is on the brink against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Total Bases

Fernando Tatis Jr. has not looked good, which is why I’m looking at his Under 1.5 total bases. He is cold.

He has two hits in his last 16 at-bats with no extra-base hits and is 1-10 in this series.

Dustin May has also been pretty good against San Diego. He owns a 1.23 ERA with a .111 opponent batting average in three starts against the Padres this year.

The Under is hitting at 80% in Tatis’ head-to-heads against the Brewers, so even coming home, it’s definitely not an ideal spot for him against Milwaukee.

Other MIL-SD Props Worth Considering

I had some other plays on my longer list, including Dustin May Under 3.5 hits allowed, but it was a little too juiced for me at around -144.

May threw a one-hit shutout against San Diego in June, and the Padres have hit .111 against him this year. He’s also allowed three hits or fewer in five of his last eight starts.

Dustin May Over 2.5 Strikeouts

The Over 2.5 strikeouts is another one I considered because the number just felt really low.

The Padres typically don’t strike out that much and are one of the lowest strikeout-rate teams, but recently they’ve been striking out a lot.

Aside from Ty France and Manny Machado, everyone else has struck out 13 times in 61 plate appearances this series.

Lastly, May has recorded three or more strikeouts in seven of his last 10 starts, including five in three innings his last time out.

Dustin May Over 8.5 Outs

You could also look at May Over 8.5 outs.

Milwaukee may not be so quick to pull him since it has a game or two to work with. He averaged more than seven innings against San Diego this year and has reached at least nine outs in seven of his last 10 starts.

The only thing that scares me is that May recorded just seven, six and nine outs in his last three starts, and his last outing was only 58 pitches.

This is also his first postseason appearance since 2020, so Milwaukee could be quick to pull him.

Avoid Nick Pivetta Props

I am staying away from all of Nick Pivetta’s props.

When you are on the brink of elimination, any kind of trouble Pivetta gets into could lead to a quick hook. He could be pitching great, get into a little bit of trouble and suddenly your prop is decided by half an out.

We saw this in the ALDS, where Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams looked amazing before suddenly getting into trouble. His outs prop was 15.5, and Williams ended up with exactly 15.

Freddy Peralta’s outs prop was 13.5, and he finished with 14. It came down to the last batter.

NLDS Game 3 Best Bets

Here are my three plays for today’s NLDS slate:

• Chris Sale Over 17.5 Outs
• Dodgers vs. Braves F5 Under 2.5
• Fernando Tatis Jr. Under 1.5 Total Bases

Referenced odds are subject to change.