It’s just been one of those paper-cut type of weeks. A lot of 1-2 days. We’ve got to find a way to flip that over.
The player props have not been good this week, so I’m going to get away from them today. We started off Monday and Tuesday playing those, but that experiment of going with two bets and a player prop has not worked.
The Yankees won both days for us. The Phillies lost both days for us, so I’m going to move away from the Phillies. Things might be going a little bit south in Philadelphia here towards the end of July.
But that takes us to a loaded Wednesday slate. I have a Hard Rock Bet of the Day along with three other bets – four sides and totals coming up today. Maybe that’ll change the mojo here and get us rolling towards a profitable week.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks: Under 8.5 Runs (-115)
Let’s start with Jared Jones and the Pirates.
In the month of July, Jones has a 1.29 ERA. He’s been great. Last time out, six innings, one earned run. The time before that, five innings, one earned run. Before that, six innings with no earned runs against the Cubs, Guardians and Braves. He also went four innings and gave up one earned run in a road start against the Phillies.
The Pirates have split the first two games with the Diamondbacks, losing 8-7 after winning 3-2. We have the third game of the series today.
Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt. He allowed two earned runs over six innings in his last road start. His last home start after the All-Star break didn’t go well, giving up five earned runs in 2.2 innings, but maybe that’s just rust after the break. Before that, he tossed six innings of two-run ball against the Dodgers. He has a 4.79 ERA in July, but he was an All-Star with a 9-3 record and a 2.64 ERA.
I’m going to bank on a lack of offense today. Hopefully Pfaadt gets back to being sharp. Yesterday finished 8-7 with a lot of offense, but now we’re on a quick turnaround with a getaway day game in Pittsburgh.
The hope is we don’t go to extra innings. Let’s avoid extra innings. Let’s avoid seeing a bunch of offense. Extra-inning games have been a nightmare here, but let’s avoid that and get ourselves a final in nine innings. If we do that, I think we’re going to be good.
Yankees vs. White Sox: Yankees Moneyline (-140)
Next up is Cam Schlittler.
He’s been very good in the month of July, posting a 2.05 ERA over 26.1 innings with just six earned runs allowed. He’s given up only two home runs all month.
Last time out, he threw 7.1 scoreless innings in a 1-0 win over the Phillies. His last home start came in an 8-2 loss to the Dodgers, but he still allowed only three earned runs in 4.1 innings. Before that, he helped beat the Nationals 4-2 and the Rays 5-1. Three road starts, three road wins for the Yankees with Cam on the mound.
He’s matched up against Davis Martin for the White Sox. Chicago has lost six of Martin’s last seven starts, including every game he’s started in July. Over 18 innings this month, he’s allowed 12 earned runs.
Martin actually hasn’t been horrible at home, but the White Sox haven’t given him much run support. Now they face a very good young Yankees pitcher, and once the bullpens get involved, it’s bad news for Chicago.
This is a four-game series, and the Yankees have won the first two. We’ve bet the Yankees in both games. Frankly, it goes right back to the same handicap we’ve been using. The White Sox have been great at home, the Yankees have been very good on the road, and New York needs to keep winning to keep pace with Tampa while staying ahead of Boston.
I’ll bet the streak.
Rangers vs. Rays: Rangers Moneyline (+119)
We go to the Rangers and MacKenzie Gore.
The Rangers have won three consecutive Gore starts: 6-5 over the Astros, 7-6 over the Braves and 5-4 over Seattle.
His July ERA is inflated because of one outing when he allowed seven earned runs in five innings against the Angels. Since then, he’s turned things around and the Rangers have won three straight games with him on the mound.
I don’t mind the over in this game either because the total is pretty low, but I’m looking at Gore on the road. His road numbers aren’t great, but he’s pitched much better lately.
Texas has won four of its last five games. Tampa Bay is 38-16 at home, but the Rangers won last night. They’re facing a bullpen game for the Rays, with Casey Legumina expected to open before Tampa turns things over to the bullpen.
It’s an all-hands-on-deck bullpen game against a hot Texas pitcher.
The Rangers won 4-1 yesterday. I’ll come right back with Texas at plus money.
Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Tigers vs. Orioles Under 7.5 (-114)
Let’s talk about our Hard Rock Bet of the Day.
It’s Tarik Skubal time for the Tigers. The Tigers have won three of the four games started by Skubal during the month of July. He has a 1.48 ERA and is very much on the trading block for the Tigers to ship him out. Where will he go? Who knows? But he’s been very good since coming back from the arm injury.
On the road, Skubal owns a 2.05 ERA and a 4-3 record. At home, it’s a 3.46 ERA with a 3-2 mark. The opposing batting average is really, really low.
The Orioles counter with Trevor Rogers. Baltimore has won five of his last six starts. Last time out against the Braves, he threw seven innings and allowed two earned runs. The game should have gone under, but extra innings kicked in and Baltimore lost 7-6. That wasn’t Trevor Rogers’ fault.
You’re facing one of the best pitchers in Skubal, and Rogers has a 1.48 ERA himself. This screams a dead-under pitching battle on a Wednesday between Baltimore and Detroit.
It’s a 1:00 p.m. day game. Hopefully that means great pitching performances. We’ve seen scores of 8-5 and 14-0 in the first two games of the series. It’s the rubber game, and hopefully all the offense got out over the last two games, leaving a great pitching duel on deck today.
Wednesday’s MLB Betting Card
- Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Under 8.5 Runs (-115) (1.15 units)
- Yankees Moneyline (-140) (1.4 units)
- Rangers Moneyline (+119) (1 unit)
- Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Tigers vs. Orioles Under 7.5 (-114) (1.14 units)
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