Middlekauff’s Week 12 Picks: Chiefs Bounce Back, Saints Go Marching

We’ve hit that point in the season when the injuries pile up, the weather turns, and the margins get razor thin. Underdogs start barking, fake contenders fade, and every yard feels like a fight.

Week 12’s slate isn’t pretty, either. A few offenses are crumbling, quarterback play is uneven, and scoring is down across the league. But that’s fine by me. Ugly slates are where the value hides. Let’s find it.

Chiefs (-3) vs Colts

Kansas City’s been a riddle all season – elite defense, inconsistent offense, and a quarterback who looks mortal between the 20s. But there’s a difference between being broken and being bored. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have been here before: the midseason slump, the questions, the doubts – and they usually come out firing.

The Colts? Scrappy, well-coached, and leaning hard on Jonathan Taylor. But Daniel Jones under pressure is a turnover waiting to happen. Over the past two weeks, he’s been sacked 12 times and fumbled six more. That’s not a stat line you want when you’re walking into Arrowhead.

Spagnuolo’s blitz packages should feast here, and Mahomes will have enough to find Kelce and Rashee Rice in space. It’s a kitchen-sink spot for Kansas City – the kind of game that recalibrates a contender.

Saints (-1.5) vs Falcons

This one’s a vibe check. New Orleans is off a bye with a rookie quarterback who’s shown flashes, and that extra week of prep means everything for timing and rhythm. The Falcons? Two gut-punch overtime losses, an offense without direction, and the corpse of Kirk Cousins under center.

Atlanta’s also missing Drake London, and that changes everything. Without him, their offense drops from 5.7 to 4.4 yards per play. When he’s out, defenses load the box, Bijan gets bottled up, and the passing game vanishes.

Meanwhile, the Saints’ defense has quietly been elite against the run – top 10 in both EPA and success rate – and they’ll make the Falcons one-dimensional. Tyler Shough can sling it, and with a full week to prep, expect New Orleans to open it up early.

Dream-crusher spot for the Falcons. This one’s going south fast.

Buccaneers (+7) at Rams

This might look like a mismatch on paper, but the Rams’ new heavy-personnel offense runs into a defense that actually knows how to handle it. Tampa Bay doesn’t panic when teams line up with multiple tight ends – they stay in nickel, keep their coverage athletes on the field, and let Vita Vea and the front seven handle the rest.

The Rams are good, not great. Stafford still forces throws, and that secondary remains vulnerable. The Bucs can’t run much, but Baker’s been efficient off play-action, and Egbuka continues to be a walking mismatch.

The Rams will score, but Tampa’s defense will hang around – and against this kind of spread, “hanging around” is all you need