Middlekauff’s NFL Week 11 Picks: Niners Roll, Seahawks & Lions Pull Road Upsets

The NFL season’s slogging through the dog days, but if you dig deep enough, there’s still money to be made. Good matchups are rare, quarterbacks are mediocre, and offenses are broken – but that’s when sharp bettors thrive.

Here’s how I see this weekend shaking out: my three best bets brought to you by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

49ers (-3) at Cardinals

Brock Purdy’s back, and that alone should give the Niners a spark. The defense is held together by duct tape, but the Cardinals are an even bigger disaster. They’re missing corners, linemen, and their defensive front can’t stop anyone.

Arizona’s offense? One read and panic. McBride might get 12 targets because there’s no one else left standing. The Niners’ offense has been rolling behind their backup, and plugging Purdy back in should keep it humming – rust or not.

San Francisco’s too talented, Arizona’s too banged up. Don’t overthink it – back the road favorite.

Seahawks (+3) at Rams

This one’s about secondaries. The Rams can’t cover anybody; the Seahawks can. That’s the whole handicap. Seattle’s corners are healthy again, they can rush with four, and that should let them hang tight against Stafford and Puka.

McVay’s offense is creative, but that Rams defense is living off reputation. The Seahawks have been better on the road than at home under Mike Macdonald, and they travel well.

This might look like a toss-up, but Seattle’s the sharper side. I like the road underdog to keep rolling.

Lions (+2.5) at Eagles

The Eagles might be winning, but they look lost doing it. Their offense is lifeless, the line’s banged up, and they lead the league in three-and-outs. Dan Campbell, on the other hand, just took over play-calling and gave his guys a jolt.

Detroit started throwing early, got creative, and the vibe flipped instantly. Sure, that came against the Washington tire fire, but momentum’s momentum. Campbell’s players clearly respond to him, and that matters.

Philly’s due for a clunker, and if Goff can stay upright outdoors, the Lions can absolutely steal this one.