Middlekauff CFP Breakdown: Don’t Sleep on Oregon, Miami on a Mission

The College Football Playoff has a funny way of making everyone talk in absolutes. “This team is inevitable.” “That team’s a fraud.” “You can’t beat a team twice.” Then the games happen and the sport reminds you why we all love it: the truth lives in the gray.

With the semifinals here, I’ve got two big takeaways before I even get to picks: (1) this year’s playoff rhythm is weird, and (2) we’re about to watch a weekend where coaching temperament and roster management matter almost as much as X’s and O’s.

Let’s get into it.

Indiana vs. Oregon: Everyone’s going to hammer Indiana… and I get it

The first thing you’ll notice about this matchup is the vibe. Indiana has become the public’s new favorite, and it’s not hard to see why. They’re physical, they’re explosive, and they’ve been blowing people out. You watch them and your first instinct is: How are you supposed to stop this?

If Indiana can run the ball and marry that with play-action, they can stress you in all the right ways. They’ve got the receivers to punish you when you get nosey in the box, and when they’re rolling, they feel like one of those teams that can turn a two-score game into a four-score game in a blink.

So yes—if you want to take Indiana plus the points, I’m not going to call you crazy. I’m probably doing it myself.

But here’s the thing.

Oregon is getting slept on, and it’s the exact kind of spot Dan Lanning loves.

Oregon’s last couple games have been a little… weird. Not disastrous, just weird. And in moments like that, people start to talk themselves into narratives: They’re shaky. They’re not playing clean. The quarterback isn’t in rhythm.

All fair.

But Oregon’s defense is legit, and they’ve got NFL bodies everywhere. You don’t just walk into this kind of game and push Oregon around. And Lanning? He’s basically the king of the viral “raw speech” era, but it usually comes when he’s the massive favorite and he’s trying to keep his team from playing with their food.

This time? He gets to be the betting underdog. Everyone’s picking Indiana. The spotlight flips. And for a guy like Lanning, that’s right up his alley.

It’s also a very different press conference week for Curt Cignetti. Last week it’s “What about the Bama mystique?” Now it becomes, “Are you guys winning the national championship?” That’s not the same energy. Some programs thrive when they’re hunting. Others get tight when they’re being hunted.

The Dante Moore piece: better now, but the Indiana front changes the math

Dante Moore hasn’t played as clean as some of the other quarterbacks you’re watching in this tournament. He’s had stretches where it feels like he’s trying to prove he’s a superstar, forcing throws, getting out of rhythm. And sometimes he’s not even aware of where pressure is coming from—he’ll run into sacks that shouldn’t happen.

The counterpoint is he’s played better since the first Oregon-Indiana meeting, especially in terms of handling pressure and settling down.

The question is whether Oregon’s offensive line can hold up against an Indiana front that might not be the flashiest pressure unit, but has a way of making the pocket collapse. Indiana can make you uncomfortable without blitzing you to death, and that’s how you ruin timing.

One more wrinkle: coordinators, job movement, and the portal

This is the part people don’t like talking about because it sounds like excuses, but it’s real.

Indiana has continuity. For whatever reason, people don’t obsessively hire away their assistants the way they do at other places. Their coordinators are entrenched, paid well, and left alone to coach football.

Oregon’s situation is more complicated. When you’ve got coaches accepting or preparing for head jobs elsewhere, you’re juggling two realities at once: you’re trying to win now, and you’re trying to build your 2026 roster tomorrow morning.

And here’s the other issue: these semifinal games are coming fast. This isn’t one of those long breaks where you get 15 days to breathe. This is a sprint.

So where do I land? I lean Indiana with the points, but I don’t feel great about it. Four is a weird number. If it’s Indiana -2.5, that’s cleaner. If you’re asking how high I’d go, I’d need to think about it—but Indiana’s been blowing teams out enough that you can talk yourself into laying more than you’d normally want in a semifinal.

Still… don’t sleep on Oregon. This has “Oregon shows up angry and makes it miserable” written all over it.

Miami vs. Ole Miss: Miami feels like a program on a mission

I’ll be honest: I might be a prisoner of the moment. But I can’t shake the feeling that Miami has found its playoff identity, and it’s not what people expected.

Mario Cristobal has this reputation—big former offensive lineman, “meathead” stereotype, tight in late-game situations, all of it. But the people who know him will tell you: he’s an absolute grinder. Belichick-level hours. Intense. Constantly in the building.

And what I’ve noticed is that in the playoff, Miami looks like it’s leaned into Mario Ball.

They’re not trying to play track meet football. They’re trying to run the ball, control the clock, and dictate terms. That’s the coaching version of saying, “You can’t beat us unless you beat us in the trenches.”

Why Miami’s physicality matters in a title path

If Miami handles business against Ole Miss, they can absolutely win the national championship. And yes, even against Indiana.

Start with the offensive line. Their tackles are enormous—like “combined weight 680-700” enormous. The right tackle looks like he’s 350 pounds and is probably a top-10 pick. When you’ve got that kind of size, you can survive against anyone.

On defense, the star is Bain. Scouts will nitpick him—shorter, shorter arms—but turn on the tape and he plays like a monster. Bending the edge, pushing guys around, looking like a pro. He was dominant.

And that’s before you get to what Miami’s staff is doing schematically. They’ve had third-down and fourth-down calls that feel NFL-level—getting their playmakers isolated, using formations to prevent press, manufacturing one-on-ones. That’s how you win these games when everybody has good athletes.

The turnover angle: Miami will hunt the ball

If Ole Miss is loose with the football—fumbling, carrying it high and wide, getting casual—Miami will make you pay. They’re the kind of defense that turns a single mistake into a two-score swing, and once they’re ahead, they will bleed you out with possession football.

That’s the key. Ole Miss can score fast. Miami’s plan is to keep them on the sideline, shorten the game, and force Ole Miss to press when they finally get the ball back.

Trinidad’s style could get him hurt in this matchup

Ole Miss’s quarterback (Trinidad Chambliss) is a really good player. But there were moments—scrambling, reversing field, doing the “run around like it’s 2004” thing—where you watch and think: That’ll get you killed against Miami.

If you’re rolling left, you might get hit by Mesidor. If you roll right, Bain is there. You can’t play backyard football for four quarters against a front like this and expect your body to hold up.

That’s why my lean is Miami. I think Miami overwhelms Ole Miss at the line of scrimmage and forces a turnover or two.

My national title thoughts

If you’re betting the national champion market, here’s how I see it: Indiana is the “put all your chips in the middle” play. They’ve looked the most complete and the most consistent.

Miami is the value play. If Miami wins its semifinal and gets Indiana, Indiana might still be favored by 3-4, but Miami won’t be some massive longshot. That’s why Miami at a bigger number makes sense as a portfolio bet.

And that’s the betting truth people forget: the best bet isn’t always “who wins.” Sometimes it’s “what number gives you the most leverage after the next game.”

The CFP schedule is still a mess, and it’s hurting the product

Let me hit one more thing because it matters going forward.

Dan Lanning went on a rant about how college football belongs on Saturdays and how we don’t need these huge breaks. I don’t disagree with him from a football standpoint. The long layoffs are awkward. Teams get rusty. The energy changes.

But here’s the reality: TV networks pay for this sport, and they love NFL December Saturdays. They’re not giving that up.

So what’s the compromise? In my mind, it’s obvious:

More home playoff games. College football is at its best on campus, not in half-full neutral-site buildings. Reward the bye teams with a real advantage.

Right now, you can argue the bye has been a disadvantage because the other team arrives with momentum and game reps.

Use bowls during the week and protect CFP windows on weekends. Put the Pop-Tart Bowl on a Tuesday. Put the Citrus Bowl on a Wednesday. Keep the playoff stages clean and let campus environments do what they do best.

We’re going to “figure it out” eventually. But we’re not close yet.

Final word: The sport is great. The structure just needs to catch up.

If you’re frustrated by the portal, the coaching carousel, the scheduling, I get it. But the truth is, it also adds drama. It’s college football free agency. And it’s not going away.

So enjoy what we’ve got right now: Indiana, Oregon, Miami, Ole Miss in a semifinal set that feels like a new era—different brands, different identities, and a whole lot of pressure.

My semifinal leans:

• Indiana (with points), but with real respect for Oregon
• Miami, because they’re playing playoff football the way it’s supposed to be played