Miami vs. Clemson Picks, Predictions & Preview with Brooks Austin

Miami heads on the road to Clemson, South Carolina, to take on the Tigers this weekend in Death Valley.

We’re all hardcores around here, and nobody is more hardcore about the Miami football team than Hard Rock Bet. You’ve probably seen their commercial with Miami legends Jimmy Johnson and Michael Irvin, so you know they’re for real.

Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook even offers a ton of Miami betting markets you won’t find anywhere else, including odds to win over 10.5 games, odds to be the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff, odds to win the national title and much, much more.

Now let’s get into Miami-Clemson.

Miami is headed on the road to Death Valley, and according to the forecast early in the week, it could be a rainy one. We’ll be in attendance at Memorial Stadium, so let’s get into our keys to the matchup, X-factors, score predictions and best bets at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

Can Clemson Find a Pulse Offensively?

When I say it has been bad offensively for Clemson, I mean it’s been horrible.

Clemson is averaging 314 yards per game, which ranks 128th in the country. The Tigers are averaging 156 passing yards, which ranks 127th, and 157 rushing yards, which ranks 75th. They’re scoring 21 points per game. That’s 120th in the country.

It has been really, really bad offensively, and it’s not like Clemson has played anything resembling what it’s about to see Saturday night. I don’t expect things to magically get all that much better against Miami.

Clemson’s Defense Has to Keep This Game Close

If Clemson is going to make this a worthwhile matchup, it has to happen on the defensive side of the football.

And here’s what scares me. Clemson plays more man-to-man coverage than anybody else in college football right now. That’s their base defense. That’s what they do. They play man.

So if that’s what it’s going to be, who are they putting on Malachi Toney? And how much safety help are they going to roll over the top? That’s something I’m paying very close attention to in this football game.

Mark Fletcher Jr. is expected to play, too, which makes things even more difficult. Part of the reason you play all that man-to-man coverage is so you can dedicate yourself to stopping the run. Clemson has been able to do that so far this year.

I’m just very curious to see whether they can actually cover this super freak that is Toney. To be honest, nobody has to date.

Maybe Clemson can disrupt the quarterback. Darian Mensah has been playing lights out so far, though.

Can Clemson Survive Playing Man Coverage Against Miami?

I don’t even know if Clemson has the ability to switch it up and consistently play zone coverage.

That’s why LSU shredded them. If you just sit in man coverage, Lane Kiffin is going to tear you apart. That’s exactly what happened. Deep overs. Mesh concepts. Rubs. Trips. Bunch. Stack. You’re going to get all of it.

And guess who else is pretty damn good at that? Shannon Dawson.

We saw it against Notre Dame last year. Notre Dame was a heavy man-to-man football team, and Miami kept going back to those mesh returns and getting guys loose. I think Miami is even better at quarterback and certainly better at wide receiver this year than it was against that Notre Dame team.

So I’m very curious to see what Clemson’s defensive plan is. Because honestly, lining up in one coverage 90% of the time isn’t much of a plan. It’s basically saying, “We’re better than you.” And I don’t know if Clemson is better than this football team. I don’t think they are.

Clemson X-Factor: Tait Reynolds

My X-factor for Clemson is Tait Reynolds. The freshman quarterback is the guy I’m watching for a variety of reasons, but the biggest one is third down.

How bad has Clemson been? 133rd in the nation. The Tigers are converting less than 30% of their third downs offensively. So they’re probably going to have to get Reynolds involved in the run game on early downs.

Clemson cannot live in third-and-long. Because if you’re in third-and-long and obvious passing situations? He’s going to get sacked. He’s going to get sacked a lot in this football game.

Get Reynolds involved in the run game early. He’s a big, physical, strapping young lad. Clemson has to get into manageable situations on third down by being successful on first and second down.

We already mentioned it: The only offensive category where Clemson hasn’t been awful is running the football. The Tigers are averaging 157 rushing yards per game, and a lot of that has to do with the quarterback being a legitimate rushing threat.

That’s why Reynolds is my X-factor.

Miami vs. Clemson Early Predictions

It’s time for our “Unless It Doesn’t Happen” predictions. I’ve got a dynamic one: Omar Thornton records at least two sacks.

I don’t think there’s a defensive coordinator who runs more nickel pressures than Miami. Corey Hetherman is a nickel-blitz demon. He did it last year, and he’s doing it even more this year.

Keionte Scott was a great addition out of the portal last season, and Thornton has been really good in these packages this year. I expect him to cause major mayhem Saturday night at Clemson.

I’ve got Miami winning this football game 31-13. I don’t know how Clemson gets an offensive touchdown. But for the sake of my prediction analysis, let’s say they do.

• Brooks Austin’s Miami vs. Clemson Score Prediction: Miami 31, Clemson 13

Miami vs. Clemson Best Bets for CFB Week 5

Using our predictive analysis, let’s head over to Hard Rock Bet and get in on some of this action.

• Miami -16.5 (-115)
• Clemson Under 15.5 Total Points (-110)
• Miami -8.5 First Half Spread (-115)