The World Cup knockout stage. Mexico vs. England. Estadio Azteca. There are big World Cup matches, and then there are nights like this.
Two of international football’s most storied nations meet at one of the sport’s most iconic venues, where Pelé lifted the World Cup in 1970 and Diego Maradona produced both the “Hand of God” and the “Goal of the Century” against England in 1986. Few stadiums carry more football history than the Azteca, and on Sunday night another chapter will be written.
For my money, this is the biggest match of the 2026 World Cup so far – and it isn’t particularly close.
Whether you’re backing the hosts to continue their dream run or England to take another step toward ending decades of World Cup heartbreak, Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook has every market covered. From the moneyline and Same Game Parlays to anytime goalscorer bets protected by Super Sub, here’s everything you need to know before kickoff to bet on the World Cup – Mexico vs England – including my predictions and best bets.
Mexico vs England Current Odds
For all knockout round fixtures the 3-way moneyline bet will be available for the first 90 minutes (plus stoppage time). England are currently judged to be the betting favorite, with hosts Mexico as slight underdogs. Bettors can back the following Mexico vs England odds currently on Hard Rock Bet Sprotsbook:
- 🏴 England to win: +145
- 🪢 Tie: +210
- 🇲🇽 Mexico to win: +210
Odds to Advance: Mexico vs. England
Want to bet on who moves on, but not how they do it? The ‘To Advance’ market allows bettors on Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook to do just that. By taking a team ‘To Advance’ you’re forgoing the need to get the method of victory correct. It doesn’t matter if its extra time, penalties, or a 4-0 blowout. Current England vs Mexico odds to advance are as follows:
- 🏴 England to Advance odds: -135
- 🇲🇽 Mexico to Advance odds: +110
Breaking the Mexico-England odds down further, the implied probability using our betting odds calculator shakes out as Mexico being 48% to get through to the quarterfinals, with England having a 57% chance to get through. This one is going to be close.
Mexico vs. England Predictions
The Hard Rock Bet Stats Hub is packed full of useful data, insights, trends, streaks, and more. If you’re looking to bet on the World Cup (or any sport, really) the Stats Hub should be one of your first stops. Here are my top betting picks and Mexico vs England predictions:
Mexico vs England Best Bet: Mexico to Advance (+110)
Stats Hub highlights that Mexico have won five straight World Cup games/qualifiers at the Azteca… but this isn’t just a Stats Hub play.
- This is a home crowd play
- This is an altitude play
- This is a betting on the fresher team play
- This is betting on Estadio Azteca, where Mexico have lost just twice in 89 competitive matches spanning decades
I think Mexico win this game. They’ve been on fire so far in the World Cup, winning all four games without conceding a single goal. They’ve played with an energy and intensity that no team has been able to contend with and we’re getting plus odds on the ‘To Advance’ market. I also like playing the 3-way moneyline price here to maximize our potential profit if we’re right.
Don’t get me wrong, this won’t be easy for Mexico. This England team are stacked on paper and you could make a really good argument that not a single Mexico player would make England’s starting 11. But this game isn’t being played on paper.
As someone who watches a lot of the English Premier League, this England team looks tired. Declan Rice is usually the engine that keeps England ticking, and while he’s been predictably great so far in the tournament, he’s nursing a host of injuries after playing more than sixty games this season for club and country and looks like he needs a rest. Bukayo Saka hasn’t been healthy enough to start. Reece James is doubtful to play. Elliot Anderson and Harry Kane played more than fifty games each for their clubs this season…
Then you factor in the heat, the air quality, the elevation, and the electric home crowd at the Azteca and I think Mexico are a good value at the price we’re getting.
England vs Mexico Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Julián Quiñones (+250)
Mexico has played three of their four games so far in the 2026 World Cup at Estadio Azteca, and per Stats Hub, Julián Quiñones has scored in all of them.
Further, he plays off the left side which is a point of weakness for this current England team with right back Reece James currently injured and doubtful to play tonight. Djed Spence got the start at right back against Congo DR in the Round of 32 but didn’t impress… in fact, Congo left winger Brian Cipenga was one of the stand out players from the match, scoring the opening goal and creating constant danger for the England defense.
At +250 I like the opportunity and price on Quiñones to score.
England, Mexico World Cup Futures Odds
One team will go home… but one team will move on with a real chance to make a deep run in this World Cup. Bettors looking to futures markets for value can currently bet Mexico and England World Cup futures at the following prices:
England World Cup Futures
- 🏴 England odds to win the World Cup: +1000 (10/1)
- 🏴 England odds to reach the World Cup Final: +400 (4/1)
Mexico World Cup Futures
- 🇲🇽 Mexico odds to win the World Cup: +2500 (25/1)
- 🇲🇽 Mexico odds to reach the World Cup Final: +750 (7.5/1)
Mexico vs England Match Info
- 📍 Location: Mexico City Stadium (Estadio Azteca), Mexico City, MX
- 📅 Date: Sunday, July 5
- ⏰ Start Time: 8:00pm ET
- 📺 Where to Watch: FOX, Telemundo, Universo
- 🏆 Stage: World Cup Knockout – Round of 16
Has the start time for Mexico-England been changed?
No, Mexico and England will kickoff at 8pm ET as scheduled. Reports indicate that FIFA considered moving the game ahead to potentially avoid the threat of thunderstorms, but ultimately the game remains scheduled to be played at 8:00pm ET.
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