John Middlekauff’s Best Bets for NFL Week 15

December always reveals which teams are really built for this stretch and which ones are barely hanging on. Bodies break down, depth evaporates, and even good teams get exposed once the temperatures drop and every snap begins to feel heavier. This week’s NFL board fits that theme perfectly: a mix of teams surviving on fumes, contenders turning corners, and a handful of matchups defined more by attrition and scheduling than pure talent.

Let’s dive into the games that actually moved the needle this week:

Texans -9.5 vs Cardinals

There’s no more “feisty” left in the Cardinals. Whatever competitive spark they had early in the year has been washed out by injuries. Their roster is held together with tape: receivers missing, linemen missing, defenders missing, and their depth chart looks like a late-August preseason group. That’s a bad setup against one of the most physical defenses in the league.

Houston looks like a heavyweight right now. The defense hits like it’s 1995, flying around the field and punishing anything that moves. And their young receivers being forced into action earlier in the year ended up being a blessing – the offense suddenly has real depth. Add in a run game that’s starting to pop, and this is one of the worst possible matchups for a team completely falling apart physically.

This isn’t typically the type of team I love laying big numbers with, but Arizona’s too beat up to hang for 60 minutes. Houston rolls.

Lions +5.5 at Rams

This number is too big. Detroit comes in off extra rest and with a real shot of momentum after going toe-to-toe with Dallas. The offense found some juice again. Amon-Ra St. Brown gutted through his injury. Jameson Williams is finally emerging. And the post-reshuffle play-calling has given this thing new life.

The Rams can score – no doubt – but their secondary can be had, and Detroit has the weapons to stress them vertically and horizontally. If the Lions’ offensive line holds up even moderately well, they can trade punches all afternoon. And when you’re catching points, you want the more aggressive coach, the guy willing to go for it on fourth and dictate the feel of the game. That’s Detroit every time.

The Rams also step into a tricky scheduling spot. Massive game here, then a short-week trip to Seattle. Lose this one and the division gets tight fast. Detroit’s the looser, hungrier team with the extra rest. I’m taking the underdog.

Broncos +2.5 vs Packers

This is a pure situational play, and the situation heavily favors Denver.

Green Bay just played one of the most physically exhausting games of the season. Their matchup with Chicago looked like a playoff street fight – helmets dented, guys pulling themselves up off the turf between snaps, long sustained drives in freezing weather. That type of game stays in your bones for days. Now they have to take that beat-up roster on the road into altitude.

Denver, meanwhile, basically got a glorified walkthrough last week. They barely had to break a sweat. In December, fresh legs matter almost as much as talent. The Broncos are rested, at home, and catching a Packers team that emptied the tank and now has to get right back up again.

I don’t love trusting Bo Nix against a defense that can make him think, but Green Bay’s spot is brutal. Denver gets the nod.

Bills -1 at Patriots

Sometimes a game comes down to one thing: trust the quarterback who can drag his team across the finish line. That’s Josh Allen here.

The Patriots have been riding fourth-down luck, fumble luck, and a run defense that has absolutely cratered since multiple injuries hit. That unit was elite early in the year; now it’s bottom-tier. Their earlier win over Buffalo required three Bills turnovers and a parade of penalties. They aren’t getting that script again.

Buffalo doesn’t need to be perfect defensively – they just need to force the Patriots to earn every yard in the red zone, and New England hasn’t solved that problem all season. The Bills should be able to run it better than the first matchup, and when the game gets tight late, Allen is the best closer on the field by miles.

This is a “find a way” game for Buffalo, and they should.

Cowboys -5.5 vs Vikings

I faded J.J. McCarthy last week and I’m doing it again. Yes, he flashed against Washington, but that defense is a gift to every quarterback in the league right now. Dallas is a completely different ask – speed everywhere, playing at home, with extra rest, and still believing they can claw their way into the NFC East race.

The Cowboys’ offense is still explosive when they’re playing from ahead and controlling tempo. And the Vikings are still too reliant on their young quarterback playing clean football snap after snap. That’s a big ask in this environment.

Dallas off a loss, at home, under a touchdown – that’s a buy.

Chiefs -5.5 at Chargers

The Chargers are cooked. Their offensive line is a liability at every spot, and Herbert’s hand injury limits what he can do even when protection holds. On the road, it has been a disaster: blowouts, stalled drives, and an offense that looks completely out of rhythm.

This is the buy-low moment on Kansas City. The public is down on them, but the matchup is perfect. The Chargers play more zone than anyone, and the Chiefs’ offense is dramatically better vs zone than vs man. Add in a short week, freezing weather, travel, and a massive trench mismatch, and the runway is clear.

If Kansas City handles business here, everything stays alive for them. This is the spot to take them, even as a decent-sized favorite.