John Middlekauff’s Best Bets for NFL Week 14

We’re into the stretch run of the NFL season, and this week’s board sets up perfectly for something I love: betting against brands that haven’t accepted reality yet.

On the pod, Stuckey and I went through a monster slate with real playoff leverage everywhere you look. After talking it through, a few sides stood out as full-on hammers for me, plus a couple I’ve bet but am not pretending to feel great about.

Let’s run through my favorite positions of the week.

1. Ravens -6 vs. Steelers

Best Bet: I’m fading Pittsburgh until further notice

When the Ravens were 1–5 and still favored to win the division, it already felt insane. Now at 6–6, the record looks respectable on the surface, but the product on the field is a mess.

Sunday against Buffalo was eye-opening though for the Steelers. The Bills were missing both tackles and Dalton Kincaid…and still just spammed the same run concept over and over, and Pittsburgh never adjusted. Same play, all night, and the Steelers’ defense – traditionally their calling card – had no answers. Now they’re banged up on that side of the ball too.

I know the history: Tomlin as a dog, the rivalry, the one-score games. Harbaugh vs. Tomlin has been ridiculous over the years – 32 regular-season meetings, and 26 of them decided by one possession. When either side has been a dog of three or more, that team has covered close to 86% of the time.

But this isn’t that Steelers team.

Defensively, they’re bad. Offensively, they’re worse. You’ve got a 42-year-old quarterback with a hand injury who can’t really brace when he gets hit. You can see it in the pocket: he’s protecting that arm, trying to survive, and you just feel like a couple of turnovers are lurking every drive. They just signed Adam Thielen off the street – that’s where they’re at in December.

I get that Baltimore has its own issues. Lamar isn’t healthy, and it shows: Second-worst in catchable ball rate since he came back. Third-worst on-target rate when not pressured. Dealing with a hamstring, knee, toe, ankle – pick a body part

The receivers aren’t getting separation, the passing game is predictable, and they’ve gone a month without completing a pass over 20 yards. This version of the Ravens isn’t the Lamar highlight-mixtape offense we’re used to.

But here’s the difference: Baltimore still has upside. At some point, Lamar is going to get healthier. When that happens, the offense can pop. Pittsburgh has no such ace in the hole. There is no version of this team where the offense suddenly becomes dangerous.

And in this matchup, the Ravens might not need to be explosive. They might just be able to line up and run the ball straight at a Steelers front that can’t fit the run and can’t tackle. Derrick Henry and that backfield against this defense feels like a bad matchup for Pittsburgh if Baltimore just stays patient.

I respect Tomlin. I get the rivalry trends. I’m a “history matters” guy in this series. But I’m also a “don’t overthink a team that’s actively unraveling” guy.

• Play: Ravens -6 – one of my favorite bets on the board.

2. Commanders +2.5 at Vikings

I’m betting any competent roster vs. JJ McCarthy as a favorite.

Let’s keep this simple: if JJ McCarthy is starting against a team with real NFL players, I’m betting the other side.

Minnesota has had a brutal schedule stretch – Eagles, Chargers, Lions, Ravens, Bears, at Packers, at Seahawks — and they’ve held up better than people realize. Their defense is still formidable, the home-field is real, and from a pure spot standpoint, this looks like a get-right game after a rough run.

That was my initial lean. But when the market flipped and the Vikings ended up laying points with McCarthy at quarterback? I’m out. At this price, it’s Washington or pass for me – and in my case, it’s Washington.

Here’s why: Washington’s defense is still bad overall, but it’s less bad under Dan Quinn. More zone, simplified calls. They’re still dead last in dropback EPA, they can’t generate pressure, and they’re gutted on the defensive line.

That means there will be wide-open throws for McCarthy. The problem? So far, he hasn’t shown he can hit them consistently. At all.

Quarterbacks coming off concussions historically see a dip in performance the next week. That’s one more variable working against him.

The Commanders might roll with Marcus Mariota again, or we might see Jayden Daniels back. And ironically, Daniels might not even be an upgrade right now — he’s struggled against the blitz, never got in rhythm this year, and has been out a while. Weirdly enough, Mariota’s numbers have been better in similar snap counts.

But again, this handicap is less “rah-rah Washington” and more:

“McCarthy as a favorite in this situation? No thanks.”

Minnesota’s defense is good. The building will be ready. But if McCarthy goes three-and-out a couple times early, that place could turn real fast. There’s already noise around him, around the coaching staff. This has potential to get very weird.

• Play: Commanders +2.5 – I’m flat-out betting against JJ as a favored starter.

3. Raiders +8 vs. Broncos

Disgusting underdog, but the number and the matchup say take it.

I’m not going to lie to you: I’m scared of this one.

This is the classic home divisional dog catching more than a touchdown with a low total – historically a profitable profile, especially when the point total is below 42 and scoring is at a premium.

Denver’s road résumé this year is smoke and mirrors:

• Losses to the Chargers and Colts
• A four-point win over the Eagles after a crazy comeback
• A two-point win over the Jets in a game where New York had negative passing yards
• A three-point win over the Texans when C.J. Stroud left and Davis Mills finished
• A one-point OT win over Washington

They have a point differential of +6 total in those games. This is not an offense built to create margin.

They go on these Bo Nix stretches where he just completely disappears for quarters at a time. It’s hard for them to pull away from anybody. Now you bring them in off a 100-play defensive game in overtime in prime time, back on the road, against a division rival that should have this circled?

On the Raiders’ side, yeah, it’s ugly:

• Offensive line is a mess
• Gino Smith isn’t playing well
• There isn’t a lot you “trust” on that offense

But they already played Denver in Denver earlier this year, on a brutal spot: coming off an overtime game where their defense was on the field for 90 snaps, short week, at altitude — and still only lost 10–7.

It’s gross. It’s one of those bets you make and immediately don’t want to watch. But the profile is right.

• Play: Raiders +8 – terrified, but in.

4. Saints +8.5 at Buccaneers

Betting against a broken Tampa offense. This one checks a bunch of boxes for me: divisional dog, inflated number, overmatched favorite with a broken offense.

Yes, Tampa had a three-game losing streak where everything fell apart. Yes, they pulled out a win last week. But it’s not like they rolled the Cardinals. And for the record, Arizona might go down as one of the greatest 4–13 teams ever — they’re in every game and just lose them all.

The Bucs offense, since about Week 9, has quietly been a disaster:

• 24th in EPA per play
• Baker’s not healthy
• Injuries across the backfield, offensive line, receivers

The overall “operation” just feels broken.

Last week, Arizona outgained them 386–279, with 6.3 yards per play to Tampa’s 4.9. Statistically, the Bucs should’ve lost that game.

I’m not here to sell you on the Saints as some juggernaut. They have only a couple wins that inspire any confidence. They won’t be able to run the ball here – they might have zero meaningful rushing yards.

But:

• The Saints defense is feisty enough to keep this thing close.
• Tampa laying over a touchdown with all these offensive issues feels like pure tax on the market’s memory of their early-season form.
• Baker’s MVP conversation is long gone – this offense is a shell of what it looked like for that first month.

Tampa needs this game in the standings. They know they still have two with Carolina, and that if they slip, the NFC South gets real weird real fast. But “needs to win” is not the same as “can cover a big number.”

Would it shock me if this is 10–10 in the third quarter? Not at all.

• Play: Saints +8.5 – more of a bet against the Bucs than for New Orleans.

5. Texans +3.5 at Chiefs

Live dog with the superior unit. This one we hit more from Stuckey’s angle, but I’m aligned on the side: I like Houston in Kansas City.

You get one of the nastiest defenses in football against a Chiefs team with:

• Beat-up offensive line (multiple starters banged up)
• No consistent vertical threat
• An offense that’s become slow, methodical, and reliant on long drives

The Texans’ defensive front can absolutely wreck a game when they’re right, and this is the best individual unit in that division race between Houston, Jacksonville, and Indy.

Offensively, Houston’s trending up:

• Woody Marks has added juice out of the backfield
• The offensive line has improved as the season’s gone on
• With Nico Collins out earlier in the season, secondary guys like Higgins have gained confidence

Nobody wants to see this Texans defense in the playoffs. Nobody in the AFC does. They keep every game close. That makes them a fantastic underdog profile.

On top of that, these are the two best under teams in the league the last few years. Kansas City at home has been an under machine. Their style right now is methodical drives, dink-and-dunk, burn clock, try to survive.

I don’t hate pairing the dog with the under here.

• Play: Texans +3.5 (find the hook) – Texans live to win this outright, and I lean under as well.

Other Leans & Notes

A few other games we hit on that are worth mentioning:

Colts at Jaguars

Indy’s defense isn’t the same without Sauce on the back end and Buckner in the middle. When both Buckner and Grover Stewart are on the field, they allow a full yard less per rush. That matters big-time against a run-first Jags scheme. But Jacksonville is banged up across the front seven, and the injury report is everything here. Lean Jags if they’re healthy; otherwise, I’m hands off.

Bears vs. Packers

A month ago, I’d have hammered Green Bay. Now? The Bears are one of those terrifying teams to fade – dominant run game, turnover luck, physical identity. Ben Johnson’s run game magic is all over that offense. The Packers have started to figure things out post-bye and post-Kraft, and getting Christian Watson and Jaden Reed back is huge. I think Green Bay eventually wins, but I’m not rushing to lay points against that Bears rushing attack.

Monday Night: Chargers vs. Eagles

Until further notice, I don’t know how you bet an Eagles over. Their offense disappears for half a game every week. No Jaylen Carter is a huge loss for Philly defensively, but their offense is broken – no motion, no play-action, no rhythm. With Herbert banged up and likely stuck in shotgun behind a shaky line, this has “ugly, sloggy under” written all over it.

Big Picture: Ugly Season, Great Finish

I’ve said this on the show: there have been some brutal slates this year. Bad early windows, ugly prime time games, and long stretches where the product just wasn’t good. There’s more parity at the top, and the bottom is truly awful — that’s how you get weird weeks where everything looks broken.

But now we’re in the stretch run. The next five weeks are going to be fantastic:

• Ravens–Steelers could decide the division and a playoff spot.
• Cowboys–Lions was essentially an NFC elimination game.
• Texans–Chiefs could knock Kansas City out and open the door for a full reset.
• Division races like Bears–Packers in the NFC North, Panthers–Bucs in the South, and others are about to get wild.

From a betting standpoint, this is where you want to be aggressive when the market is still half-baked on who teams actually are.

Week 14 picks

1. Ravens -6 vs. Steelers
2. Commanders +2.5 at Vikings
3. Raiders +8 vs. Broncos
4. Saints +8.5 at Bucs
5. Texans +3.5 at Chiefs

Now we see who really is what their record says they are — and who’s been fooling everybody.