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As we get closer to Monday night, I’ve been thinking a lot about where I stand on this matchup, and after looking it over, I’m rolling with the home dog. I know it’s a little risky because of Justin Herbert’s physical situation — the hand, the uncertainty, the question of whether he can play through injury. We’ll find out soon enough. But even with that hanging over the game, I’m taking the Chargers moneyline.

This is a classic Harbaugh spot. At home, backs against the wall, physical game coming, and a roster that still has plenty of talent. There’s also the return of their first-round running back, Omarion Hampton, which matters in a matchup where Harbaugh is going to want to run the ball. With Jalen Carter out for Philadelphia, that interior softens just enough to give the Chargers some opportunities.

And let’s be real: with Herbert dealing with a broken hand, you’re not calling quarterback sneaks at the goal line. That shifts scoring opportunities to the backs — especially Hampton.

Now, on the other side of the ball, this game has A.J. Brown scoring a touchdown written all over it. Sirianni has reportedly been pounding the table in meetings, getting more vocal, and this feels like a get-him-involved moment. These things tend to be intentional. When a star receiver needs touches, offenses make sure they get them.

MNF picks:

  • Chargers to win (moneyline)
  • A.J. Brown anytime touchdown
  • Omarion Hampton anytime touchdown

Put those together, and you get a nice little 10-to-1 parlay on Hard Rock Bet.

Should be a fun one. Enjoy the game — adios.

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John Middlekauff

John Middlekauff is a former NFL scout and is the current host of “3 & Out with John Middlekauff” on The Volume Network. He brings an insider’s perspective and sharp analysis to the game’s biggest stories across professional and college football.