John Middlekauff: CFP Thoughts & Week 16 NFL Picks

When your co-host has a baby in the middle of an NFL Sunday, you get a reminder that life keeps moving while we obsess over football. Stuckey spent an hour in the nursery listening to Red Zone while doctors sorted everything out. He showed up to the podcast tired, giddy and exactly the kind of dad you picture: earbuds in, phone propped, still mentally on football. Big congrats to him and his family. If you want a bellwether for how committed people in this game are, that moment was it.

But as much as the personal stuff colors the backdrop, what matters now is the next two months of football: playoff college football on Fridays and Saturdays, NFL Saturdays and Sundays, and the daily churn of storylines, injuries and coaching decisions that tilt markets and narratives.

Here’s what I’m thinking after talking through the games on the latest episode of the 3 & Out Podcast.

The College Playoff is Broken — and Expanding Won’t Fix It

Let’s get this out of the way: the expanded playoff has exposed some structural kinks nobody solved before dumping more teams into the bracket. The ACC’s tiebreaker rules this year were a disaster and created outcomes that nobody wanted. If the league’s tiebreakers had prioritized the highest CFP ranking first, Miami would have been in the ACC title game and a lot of the controversy would’ve evaporated. Instead, we ended up with awkward permutations that make the whole thing feel arbitrary.

There’s a real argument — one I don’t dismiss — that the non-Power Four schools should have their own postseason structure. Football is not basketball; the sample sizes and resources are different. Smaller programs want access to the money and the exposure, and that complicates any clean split. In the short term, I expect more expansion (16 teams is coming in conversation), but more teams only multiplies arguments: byes, seeding, and the endless debate over who deserved that last spot. We still think eight felt pure: keep conference championship weekend meaningful, retain leverage on the regular season, minimize hair-on-fire selection debates.

First-Round Matchups I’m Watching

Two games stand out to me as likely to define talking points this weekend:

JMU vs. Oregon

Oregon’s blowout over Liberty last year showed us what a mismatch looks like. JMU’s defense is legit — they’re a top-20 unit if you adjust for opponent — but the offense worries us. They’re slow up front, and Oregon’s D should dominate the line of scrimmage. Expect Oregon to control this; if the Ducks lack wideout depth, they’ll lean on the run and tight ends, and that tempo often favors the Power Four club. I played the under early because I think JMU’s offense will struggle to find separation and sustain drives.

Miami vs. Texas A&M

This is a trench fight. Both teams boast elite line play on both sides — you could make a case that the winner of the line of scrimmage wins the game. Expect conservative starts and a lower-scoring first half; if A&M falls behind early, they’ve shown they can make second-half comebacks. Live betting here will be valuable — I like the Aggies in-game if they’re trailing and can tilt the line of scrimmage.

Across the board, home-field advantage in these new first-round playoff games looks magnified. Last year, all four home teams won and covered, and I don’t think that sample was fluky. Night games, crowd energy and travel logistics for the lower-seeded teams add up.

NFL Week 16 reads & plays

Here are our current thoughts for the Week 16 slate:

Raiders at Texans (-14.5)

Stuckey and I disagreed on this one. I’m laying the points with the Texans – they need this win.

Stuckey, however, likes the underdog. The Raiders were crushed last week — 31-0, 75 yards of offense — but he argues that history favors buying low here. The trend of “double-digit dog, double-digit dog” hitting at about a 67% rate over the long haul is one he respects. The Raiders could also get Kolton Miller back, which stabilizes what has been a terrible OL. He’s taking a small position on the Raiders laying the market overreaction against the Texans, who he thinks are near the top of the market after a six-game run that included some fluky benefits (injured opponents, etc.). A classic fade-euphoria spot.

Jaguars at Broncos (-3)

This is a correlated week for me: I like the Texans (value on motivation) and I like the Broncos at home. Denver has been peaking and Bo Nix showed elite confidence in his breakout game; at home in Denver they’re a difficult team to beat. The Jags are a live offensive team, but I prefer Denver’s matchup and home edge.

Ravens (-3) vs. Patriots

December Lamar is an actual thing. The Patriots got lucky early with a soft schedule and some turnovers; now injuries are starting to chip away and their run defense has been flawed the last stretch. I like Baltimore at home in a spot where they can run and attack the middle of the field. We’re both siding with the Ravens.

Steelers (+7) at Lions

The Steelers have been physical and have embraced heavy personnel with multiple tight ends—exactly the matchup that gives them a path against Detroit. If you can get the Steelers in the +7 territory and you trust their ability to move the chains with heavy personnel packages, it’s a live number. Stuckey and I debated this one; I like Pittsburgh’s personnel usage and matchup enough to back them.

Chiefs at Titans (+3.5)

This one is weird. The Chiefs are injured and emotionally flat after an elimination, and you can reasonably wonder if they want to push the major stars back into harm’s way. At the same time, the Titans have nothing to lose and some upside as a home dog. I’d take the Titans plus the points and would consider a small moneyline when price allows.

Chargers (+2.5) at Cowboys

The Chargers are gritty, physical, and improving under Harbaugh—this is their year to build to something bigger next season. Dallas has a higher ceiling at home, but the Chargers’ toughness and an undermanned Dallas offense make the +2.5 attractive on the road.

Buccaneers at Panthers (+3)

Baker Mayfield has been tough to trust lately; Carolina is a different team at home (they win as dogs). Tampa’s offense has been a mess, and while they’re getting healthier, I’m leaning Panthers at this number.

Packers at Bears (Over)

Green Bay’s injury news is ugly (Parsons was a game-changer for them), but I like the over here because both offenses have shown bursts and both coaching staffs will make in-game adjustments. Injuries make it messy, but I’m buying scoring.

Colts at 49ers (-6)

The 49ers offense has been scoring, and I worry about whether Philip Rivers and the Colts will be able to keep up.

Stuckey? He made a bold call and played the Colts. The 49ers have been terrific, but their recent opponents have been ravaged by injuries; their run defense numbers have slipped and the Colts (with Jonathan Taylor) can do damage, especially if San Francisco’s pass rush is inconsistent. Philip Rivers is a fascinating narrative here—he’s limited movement-wise but has a game under his belt and plays at home.