This is always the time of year where you start getting a little bittersweet because you start counting how many games are left. For me personally, this probably one of the last weekends of pure football between the schedule and everything going on in my life.
Fifteen total games are left across the NFL and college football, with seven of them taking place this weekend. Let’s get into it.
Who Can Win the Super Bowl?
Here’s how I look at it. If you’re a 1 seed, you’ve just got to win two games. Both Seattle and Denver have slightly easier paths to the Super Bowl, and if they can get there, they can win it. That’s simple math.
After that, I’m not throwing the entire league into the “can win” bucket because people love doing that in January. You need a defense that isn’t a disaster, and you need an offense that can handle the heat. In the AFC, I had the Jags, Pats, Texans, and Bills as the teams outside the Broncos that can actually win it. In the NFC, besides Seattle, I only had two: the Rams and the Eagles. That’s eight total.
And I’m sorry – I can’t take teams seriously when their defense is as bad as the 49ers or Bears. People can scream at me, but you’re asking me to win three games just to get there, and then a fourth against the best team left standing. If your defense stinks, good luck.
Rams/Panthers Under 46
This number is massive. Laying 10.5 points on the road in the playoffs is ridiculous. It’s the kind of line where you have to ask: what exactly are we betting on?
The Rams and Panthers recently played in November, and Carolina won outright, but it was fluky. The Rams moved the ball, had a huge success rate, and still lost because of turnovers and high-leverage explosive plays – a pick six, bombs on fourth down, that kind of stuff that isn’t sustainable. The Panthers were also extremely short-handed defensively in that game.
Here’s my problem: I don’t want anything to do with 10.5 points. That’s just too big. But I can see a path to an under. The Panthers offense has a ceiling. Their rushing offense has been broken late in the year, and I like Bryce Young, but I can’t see him shredding this Rams defense. Are they going to hit a bunch of fourth-down bombs again? Maybe. But if we’re being real, the Panthers are more likely to be sitting around 10 points than they are to be sitting around 27.
So I’m looking at the under. Outdoor totals in the Wild Card round above 44 have pointed to the under historically, and when you’re staring at a game that I can see landing 28-10, 28-17, or 24-14, all those outcomes fit the same script. Rams advance unless it turns into a turnover fest.
Packers (-1) at Bears
I love this matchup. This rivalry matters again, and Chicago’s going to be on fire. First home playoff game since the double doink? That place is going to have a collegiate feel, and I get why people want to ride the emotion.
But I’m taking Green Bay. And a huge part of it is just trusting Jordan Love more than Caleb Williams right now. The Bears had a fluky year in a lot of ways, especially with turnovers and late-game magic. The Packers, meanwhile, basically gave themselves a bye in Week 18. If you watched that game, they did nothing – and I mean nothing. They were prepping for this game the entire week, and that matters.
The Bears defense can’t get pressure. If Love has a clean pocket, he’s shown he can carve you up. And the Packers can generate explosive plays, while Chicago’s defense gives them up. Now, I’m not pretending the Packers defense hasn’t fallen off with injuries – that matters too – and I do think the Bears will have some success running the ball. But in a playoff game, I’m siding with the quarterback who has been there.
Also, first playoff starts can get weird. There’s nerves, there’s jitters, and historically it hasn’t gone great when you’re a first-time playoff starter facing a guy with experience. That doesn’t mean Caleb can’t play well – it just means I’m not betting on it.
Bills (-1) at Jaguars
This is the one game where I’m holding my nose a little. Jacksonville is hot. They’re rolling. Team speed, physicality, quarterback confidence, defense flying around – they look like one of those teams you don’t want to see in January.
And still, I’m taking Josh Allen.
If Buffalo loses this game, it wouldn’t shock me, and I’ll bet on Jacksonville from then on out because they can absolutely win the Super Bowl. But if not now, then when for the Bills? No Lamar. No Mahomes. It’s wide open. This is the year where you can’t tell yourself, “We ran into the buzzsaw again.”
Also, Jacksonville doesn’t exactly have the kind of home-field advantage that makes you terrified the way Kansas City does. Buffalo has lived in these big playoff moments for years. They’ve lost a lot of them, but they’ve been there.
So give me the Bills. I don’t feel great about it. But I’m betting on the quarterback who can take over the game when it gets weird in the second half.
Chargers (+4) at Patriots
I’ll keep it simple: Harbaugh, Herbert, that defense – give me the points.
New England’s story is awesome, but they didn’t exactly face a gauntlet all season. And from a pass rush standpoint, they’re not rolling out a group that scares you. The Chargers have a mentality, and Harbaugh teams are built to play in these moments.
Herbert also has something to prove. That playoff game last year was ugly. This is where you respond. I’m not picking them to win the Super Bowl, but I think they are an extremely live underdog on the road catching more than a field goal.
Texans at Steelers (-3)
Monday night in Pittsburgh is always tricky. The Steelers haven’t lost at home on Monday Night Football in forever, and we all know how that place can tilt a game with one weird play.
But I’m taking the Texans -3.
The Steelers can absolutely make this uncomfortable – and I can see it being close at halftime – but if Houston’s offense shows up and you get a normal game, I like the Texans’ ability to make more plays. The total is low for a reason: this has the feel of a grind, and it probably swings on one fluky moment. I’m laying the field goal and hoping Houston doesn’t step on rakes.
Because that’s what January football is: avoid stepping on rakes, and you’re still alive.
Who Can Win the College Football Playoff?
Switching gears to college football – and yeah, all four teams left can win it.
Indiana is the favorite for a reason. They don’t beat themselves. They dominate third downs, avoid penalties, protect the ball, and physically overwhelm teams. They’re grown men.
Miami absolutely has a path as well. Their defensive front is nasty, and they look like an NFL team when they’re rolling. If they get to the title game at home, that would be special.
Ole Miss is pure chaos. They’re talented, but they’re dealing with staff turnover and uncertainty we’ve never really seen before in a playoff. No precedent.
Oregon winning might be the most “normal” outcome. They’re young, but they’re talented, and Dan Lanning finally gets to play the underdog card – which coaches like him live for.
Ole Miss vs Miami (-3.5)
This game comes down to whether Ole Miss can handle Miami’s physicality.
The Canes can run the ball, they can pressure the quarterback, and they can overwhelm you up front. Trinidad Chambliss can create magic, but doing it against this front is a different ballgame.
I like Miami here, and I think there’s a scenario where they win by more than a touchdown if they take control early.
Oregon vs Indiana (-3.5)
Indiana keeps doing this because they execute. They’re elite on third down, disciplined, and physical. Oregon has more raw talent, but they’re younger and already lost to the Hoosiers in Eugene.
I think Indiana wins, but I’d want a flat -3 to bet it. Oregon’s wild card is Dan Lanning going for it on fourth down – that aggression can swing games fast.
Final Thoughts
We’ve got great NFL matchups, two excellent college semifinals, and just a handful of weekends left. So soak it in. Because once it’s gone, it’s gone.
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