Jason Timpf’s Mid-Season NBA Awards: MVP, DPOY, All-NBA Teams & More

As always, all of the lines mentioned were provided by our partner, Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.

NBA MVP Race

Let’s begin with MVP. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is currently leading this one at -200 over at Hard Rock Bet. Jokic is up next at +300. Big drop off from there. Cade is third at +1400 and Luka is fourth at +2000.

I think Shai is clearly the MVP at this point. I’m not surprised he’s the favorite. He’s averaging 32 points per game on 67% true shooting this season. To give you guys some perspective, unanimous MVP Steph Curry averaged 30 points per game on actually a tiny bit lower efficiency. He was at 66.9% true shooting. So, we’re talking about a more efficient scoring season at higher volume than unanimous MVP Steph.

Do I think Shai’s been as good as unanimous MVP Steph? No. Steph was a better offensive engine. That’s no shade at Shai. I just think we’re seeing the best guard season since 2016 Steph from Shai and I think that’s saying a lot.

I think he’s going to win MVP. I don’t like the Jokic bet at all. Consider the situation – he just has to miss two more games to be ineligible for the award. For all of the different ways that could go south, I think Jokic at +300 is simply not a good bet.

Cade is the interesting one for me here. The Pistons currently have the best record in the entire NBA. Cade has clearly been their most valuable player. The team performs way better when he’s on the court versus when he’s off. 25 points per game, six rebounds, and 10 assists. He’s particularly been amazing in the post this year. Out of the 50 players who have posted up at least 75 times, he has the sixth-best efficiency in the league, 1.28 points per possession, including passes. And he’s a legit two-way player.

If you look at this from a gambling perspective, there’s a version of this story where the Thunder kind of ease their way through the rest of the season. What if the Pistons finish with the number one overall seed? What if there’s a solid three or four game margin between them and OKC? That’s a pretty damn strong MVP case and you’re getting him at +1400 for what is a completely realistic outcome. So, I like that as a long shot value bet.

Will Luka ever win an MVP?

What will it take for Luka to finally win an MVP? It’s not about his upside. I would argue Luka’s ceiling is actually the highest in the league, maybe even a bit higher than Jokic. When Luka has every part of his game going, he’s literally one of the most indomitable forces in the history of the league.

But he has by far the lowest floor of any of the current superstars. You have a bad Giannis game, he still brings enormous value defensively, enormous value on the glass, and that relentless rim pressure comes with a lot of trickle down positive effects. Jokic has some turnover issues, but he’s nowhere near as bad as Luka.

With Luka, his bad nights consist of a lot of turnovers, a lot of missed threes, and really bad defense. And so, his bad nights are just more damaging to his team than the bad nights for other stars. And because his game is so predicated on high-volume three point attempts, he’s more prone to those cold nights.

So, how does Luka finally win an MVP? Cut down on the mistakes and the poor shot selection. You can go 2-7, realize you don’t have it, and adjust your shot profile, right? And uh, a little bit more consistency on defense. That is what actually accentuates and shines the light on his immense ceiling.

NBA Defensive Player of the Year

Defensive Player of the Year. This is another one that basically comes down to the 65 game rule. Wembanyama is currently the favorite at Hard Rock Bet. He’s -250. Chet’s the only other real guy in contention right now at +230, but Chet has only missed seven games and Wemby has missed 14. So if Wemby misses four more games, he’s disqualified. We’ve seen how careful the Spurs can be with him – any sort of little thing could cause him to miss two or three games, right?

That being said, I would look at this one like a coin flip. And at that point, if you’re getting Chet at +230, he’s your best opportunity there. Now, to be very clear, if you’re just basing this award on individual performance and we assume that both guys qualify at the end, it’s Wemby by a mile. That’s no shade at Chet.

Chet gives you basically everything you could ever want from the center position defensively. He has great scheme versatility. He’s an elite drop coverage big. He’s an outstanding switch defender. He’s been very good in one-on-ones this year. I think he’s a better post defender than he gets credit for. The only real knock on Chet defensively is his rebounding.

But Wemby is an alien. And the funny thing is, he’s actually having a pretty bad season defending one-on-ones both statistically and with what you see on tape. He’s been particularly susceptible to dribble drives. We’ve seen a lot of examples of it this year. Zion drove right around him a bunch of times. Giannis has gotten right through him. Anthony Edwards drove right by him and hit a little floater off the glass.

He’s still just far and away the best defensive player in the league because of his overall impact as an off-ball defender. There are so many situations where guys get open on drives, cuts, and rolls, and they look up and they go, “Nope.” He just breaks down so many offensive sequences with his sheer presence around the basket.

What you’re essentially betting on with the Defensive Player of the Year award is not who’s the Defensive Player of the Year. Wemby is the Defensive Player of the Year. You’re betting whether or not you think Wemby is going to miss four more games.

NBA Coach of the Year

Coach of the Year. This one’s a slam dunk for JB Bickerstaff. JB is just going to win it. But I really just want to dive into specifically why I think JB deserves this award. It’s not just as simple as Detroit having the best record. It’s their strong identity, the one that exists regardless of who is on the floor.

One of the biggest things that I point to as an indicator of a strong coaching presence is how your team performs on the margins. The Pistons just absolutely crush teams on the margins. Detroit is Top 10 in both transition points added per 100 possessions on offense and on defense according to cleaning the glass. They outscore teams by 5.5 points per game every single game off of turnovers. They outscore teams by two points per game in second chance points. They outscore teams by 4.9 points per game just strictly in the fast break.

I don’t think the Pistons have the most talented roster in the NBA. It’s talented roster, but they’re not out there just overwhelming teams with talent. By any measure, though, this has been the best team in the NBA this year. They have the best performance in games against the best teams. Detroit is 10-3 against teams that are Top 10 in point differential, outscoring them by an average of 5.7 points per game. So they’re outperforming expectations better than any team in the NBA by a wide margin. And that is why JB Bickerstaff is the runaway Coach of the Year favorite.

All-NBA teams

Now onto All-NBA. This one is super tricky because of the 65 game rule. LeBron and Giannis are already out. There’s a legitimately possibility that Luka, Jokic, Wemby, Steph, Devin Booker, and Kawhi Leonard all miss the 65 game cut. So, we could end up with a truly bizarre All-NBA lineup here.

Just for fun, let’s assume that all these guys play the rest of the season. First team, I think there’s four locks: Jokic is a lock. Shai is a lock. Luka’s a lock. I think Anthony Edwards is a lock. And I ended up putting Wemby in. That said, Jokic, Shai, Luka, Ant, and Wemby would be my first team if the season ended today.

Second team, there are a couple of absolute locks like Cade, Jaylen Brown, and Kawhi Leonard. Jalen Brunson is having the best season of his career, and Donovan Mitchell also got the nod from me for second team.

Third team is pretty easy. Tyrese Maxey has been the best player on the Philadelphia 76ers this year. Kevin Durant has really been carrying the load for Houston. Jamal Murray has had an awesome season. Devin Booker, the offensive engine in Phoenix. And then we have Steph Curry, who hasn’t created enough team success to justify anything higher than a third team All-NBA selection.

NBA Most Improved Player

Now for Most Improved Player. Deni Avdija is the favorite at -120, while Jalen Johnson is right behind him at +240. Big drop off after that with Keyonte George at +800. I believe there is an interesting betting opportunity on the Jalen Johnson side.

If the season ended today, Deni is the Most Improved Player. He’s the better basketball player right now. I think he impacts winning at a higher level than Jalen Johnson, specifically because he’s that self-creating offensive engine type that I’ve always valued more. He’s a relentless driver of the basketball. He can slow down, put the defender in jail. He can methodically pick you apart. He’s very good at getting to the foul line. He’s good at making all of the reads in those situations. And the Portland Trailblazer offense just falls apart when he’s off the floor.

But since that back injury he suffered against the Knicks, Deni’s looked a little bit shaky. He’s at just 19 points per game over his last six games. If Deni continues to tail off this year, then Jalen’s going to win this award. There might be some value there on Jalen Johnson at +240.

NBA 6th Man of the Year

Lastly, before we get out of here, let’s talk Sixth Man of the Year. Hard Rock Bet has it as a three-man race right now. Naz Reid at +190, Keldon Johnson at +325, and Jaime Jaquez at +525. I look at this as more of a two-man race.

I lean towards Keldon here. It’s less about Naz and more about how much I like Keldon and what he’s done for San Antonio this year. He’s brought a very important bully-ball element to this team. He’s been a guy that brings the hammer off of the bench for San Antonio. He’s hit a lot of important catch-and-shoot threes this year.

Johnson has also been way more clutch. Naz Reid is just 2-12 from the field in clutch situations this season. Keldon is 7-11, including 3-4 from three. If the season ended today, my Sixth Man of the Year would be Keldon Johnson.