Jason Timpf: NBA Power Rankings for the Week of December 8

Time for another round of power rankings, and I want to walk through where I’m at on a handful of teams right now — not just in terms of wins and losses, but in how seriously I take them as contenders and what their underlying profiles look like. As always, I’ll reference the current title odds from Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook to give some context on how the market sees them, too.

10. Orlando Magic (+3000 to win the title on Hard Rock Bet)

Just a brutal week from a Magic team that had been playing super well.

First, they lose a game to San Antonio on a very tough foul call on Jonathan Isaac. It was probably the right call, but just a really tough one in that spot to lose a game. Then they bounce back with a huge win against the Heat, capped by a monster defensive sequence down the stretch where they denied everyone so well that Miami had to call a timeout just to get the ball in bounds.

Out of the timeout, same story. Orlando denies everyone again, and the Heat end up leaning on this stupid Bam Adebayo heave at the buzzer that has no chance. Really good defensive performance in that win against the Heat.

Then they lose to New York in a game where Franz Wagner goes down with this apparent knee injury. He got an MRI last night; I haven’t heard anything about the results yet, so we’ll see. But it’s eerily reminiscent of last year, where Paolo finally gets healthy and then Franz gets hurt. They just can’t have both of those dudes healthy and on the floor at the same time. It’s just been bad luck.

Yesterday I went on Sam Vecenie’s show — the Game Theory podcast — and we did a deep dive on the Magic and what a potential Paolo-for-Giannis swap could look like, mainly looking at this summer. Just something to keep in mind.

I’m fascinated by this idea. It’s been by far my favorite Giannis trade for both sides: the Magic this summer turning Paolo into Giannis. I think it foundationally sets up the Bucks for the future and overnight just makes the Orlando Magic a top-tier contender in the Eastern Conference. They’d be clearly, far and away, the best team in the East with an easy puncher’s chance to win the title against whoever comes out of the West. It’s my favorite Giannis trade right now.

9. San Antonio Spurs (+4000)

The Spurs had a 2–1 week: a couple of nice wins against a red-hot Grizzlies team as well as the Orlando Magic, and then a tough loss in Cleveland where their offense just fell apart in the third quarter. They completely lost control of that game in like 10 minutes.

But I’m actually higher on the Spurs than I’ve ever been. I’m really bullish about how good their offense has been under De’Aaron Fox, who’s been fantastic ever since that Warriors nightmare.

Devin Vassell continues to shoot the absolute hell out of the basketball. Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan have provided more of a rim-pressure, bully-ball element to their offense. Dylan Harper has been killing teams with his drives; those Memphis and Minnesota games were awesome demonstrations of Dylan’s ability to pressure the rim. Luke Kornet has been great — hopefully his ankle’s okay.

I keep thinking: if they can somehow combine the offensive success they’ve had under De’Aaron Fox with the defensive success they’ve had under Wemby, this suddenly becomes a real threat in the Western Conference. Easily the team I was most wrong about this season. When healthy, I have them firmly in that second tier of Western Conference teams with the Lakers and the Timberwolves.

To me it’s like: OKC clearly at the top above Houston and Denver — maybe even a third tier, maybe just in a tier by themselves — then Houston and Denver, then Lakers, Wolves, Spurs in whatever order. That’s kind of how I see the West shaking out to this point.

8. Boston Celtics (+4000)

We hit the Celtics for a full segment earlier in the show, so I’m not going to stay too long here. But they’re playing some of the best offense they’ve played in the Joe Mazzulla era, and they’re getting plenty of stops with Neemias Queta on the floor.

I think they’re a returned Jayson Tatum as well as a true center — a trade for a center — away from being a legitimate threat to make the NBA Finals this season. I don’t think it has to be a superstar; I think Queta is fine as a starter. I just think they need another player of that ilk in their rotation so they can potentially go to a center 48 minutes if they have to for a specific matchup.

If they get Jayson Tatum back and they get a center in a trade — maybe for an Anfernee Simons type of deal — that’s when I think they become a real threat to make the Finals, which seemed completely impossible when Jayson Tatum went down in a heap last year against the Knicks.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves (+2250)

The Wolves are winners of five in a row after beating the Clippers on Saturday. Their offense is just in a ridiculous groove right now. They’ve posted a 124.4 offensive rating in that five-game streak.

Anthony Edwards has gone up a massive level as a rim finisher this year. He’s getting there more often than he did last year, and he’s finishing at by far the best rate of his career — 68% at the rim this season — fueled by him making a much higher percentage of his layups than in previous seasons.

He’s just so much better at slowing down and letting things develop on his drives. He used to just be shot out of a cannon every time and would miss layups going full speed downhill into traffic. Now he’s hitting a hesitation dribble in the middle of the floor, waiting to see how the defense reacts, seeing where the seam is before he hits it. Or he’ll hit a slowdown step to wait for a defender to run by him or for a rim protector to jump and then come back to the ground. He’s taken a leap with his rim reads that has made him so much more effective at the basket.

It’s flying under the radar because of how good Shai, Luka, Giannis, and Jokic have been. But Ant has also taken a big leap this year in his scoring and efficiency. His volume and efficiency have both gone up a significant chunk.

You combine that with Jaden McDaniels, who’s taken a leap on offense that really started in the playoffs last year; Julius Randle, who’s been awesome; Naz Reid, who’s been excellent and was great in that Clippers game; Donte DiVincenzo shooting the ball really well — their offense is cooking.

Yeah, their defense has left a lot to be desired through inconsistent effort and some specific lineups that struggle to guard, but they’re top seven in defense in both fourth quarters and in clutch situations. They’ve still shown the ability to hit that extra gear when they need to to win games.

I think we’re all underrating Minnesota again this year. I view them as every bit the puncher’s-chance threat to win the title that they were in each of the last two seasons as they demonstrated in their Western Conference Finals runs.

6. Houston Rockets (+1000)

The Rockets went 2–2 this week. They took a tough loss in Utah where they were super sloppy down the stretch. They couldn’t stop fouling. They had a possession where I think they committed five fouls before getting the ball back in crunch time. Some missed layups and turnovers on the other end too — Şengün missed a couple. Just a bad night. It happens in the NBA. Whatever.

They beat Sacramento and had a super impressive win against a very good Suns team. was out with an illness, and Amen Thompson and KD just were awesome from start to finish. They controlled the Suns from the start. That was a really good win for them.

Then they lost a tough game on the road in Dallas where I think they really felt the loss of Şengün. The Mavs are playing good basketball. I know they got their butts kicked by OKC, but they’ve won most of their games around that, which is again a testament to just how good Oklahoma City is. That’s a tough one to win on the road without Şengün; they ended up dropping that one.

KD and Amen Thompson last week: 58 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists per game between the two. Just a really fun give-and-take to watch with Şengün out of the lineup.

They’ve got a light schedule over the next two weeks in terms of volume — only five games in their next 14 days, which is wild. They’ve played the fewest games in the league so far (only 21), and they still play only five times in the next 14 days. Kind of a bizarre setup. But two of those are on the road against Denver, so a couple of fun ones there.

The schedule is insane once they get to January: 17 games, playing basically every other night plus three back-to-backs. That’s when their depth and their health will be tested.

5. New York Knicks (+1500)

The Knicks are 3–0 since that bad loss to Boston where all their weaknesses were on display. They had a couple easy ones against Charlotte and Utah and then a slugfest of a win against the Orlando Magic.

It’s very good to have OG back. You can literally see how important he is to their defense. You need him and Mikal really flying around to account for the mistakes that Cap makes and the physical limitations of Jalen Brunson. It’s been apparent every time I watch them, and it’s in the numbers as well. They are 12 points better per 100 possessions on defense with OG Anunoby on the floor versus off. They’re a great defense with him on and a bad defense with him off.

They’ve won seven out of eight. They’re top five in offense, defense, and rebounding in that span. Randle and Brunson have both been great on offense. Josh Hart is playing some of the best basketball of his career — averaging 16 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists per game in that span. He’s killing teams for helping off him or putting centers on him. He’s hitting threes at a high rate, cutting, grabbing offensive rebounds, just doing a lot of damage.

Similar to the Lakers, the one thing that’s missing for them is that signature win. No one’s going to take the Lakers or the Knicks seriously until they go up against one of the top-tier contenders and just beat them. There’s too much lingering baggage from their playoff issues in recent seasons for both teams to get real respect as legitimate championship contenders until they beat one of these top teams.

They’ll have plenty of opportunities. The difference between the Knicks and the Lakers is the East is wide open. With the Lakers, I don’t even have them in the top tier in the West; I have them in that second tier with Minnesota and San Antonio.

If the season ended today and I had to pick someone to win the East, to me it’s like 50/50 between Detroit and New York with Boston hot on their heels because we just don’t know what deals they’re going to make at the deadline. Because Detroit’s so young and because the Knicks beat them in the playoffs last year, you could talk me into the Knicks just being the East favorite right now. I’d probably lean very slightly toward Detroit, but that’s how open the East is. Even with their issues, the Knicks very easily could win this conference. They just need that signature win for everyone to take them seriously.

4. Los Angeles Lakers (+1300)

We hit the Lakers in a segment earlier in the show, so I’m not going to stay long here. But this team is hitting all the major checkpoints for championship contention.

They seem to have excellent chemistry and vibes around the team. They haven’t lost two games in a row yet. They’re excellent on the road. And they have a legit top-tier superstar. That’s one of the big differences between them and the Knicks.

Luka was bad by his standards in the Suns game and in that game against Philly. And yet in those two games, he averaged 35 points, 13 rebounds, and eight assists on efficient shooting. That’s the difference between the top-tier guys and the next tier. They somehow find a way to be effective even when they’re not at their best.

Similar to New York, I think the Lakers need a signature win to get everyone to really believe they can compete at the highest levels. They’re going to have a great chance to do so this week. You beat San Antonio on Wednesday, you’ve got a date with Oklahoma City on Saturday night. That would be an awesome opportunity for the Lakers to demonstrate that they are a dead-serious championship contender in this league. Go beat Oklahoma City. Go compete with Oklahoma City. Show that you can play with those guys.

3. Denver Nuggets (+600)

The Nuggets are currently 17–6, which is the best start in franchise history. They won their eighth, ninth, and 10th consecutive road games this week, including a super impressive road win in Atlanta against the Hawks.

Jamal Murray is the guy I want to hit on. He’s in a really special zone in his last seven games: 30 points, four rebounds, seven assists, 57% from the field, 61% from three, 89% from the line, 72% true shooting.

I’m going to take a victory lap here. I’ll get into this more when we go over my summer predictions on Friday, but this is one I was right about. I got eviscerated this summer for saying Jamal Murray was one of the 25 best players in the league. My thought process was that after the trades and signings, he’d come in locked in because he’d see the opportunity they have to win the title.

He’s done exactly that. He’s come into the season in the best shape he has in years. He’s been excellent from the start. He’s very clearly, to me, one of the 25 best players in the league to start the season. And I think he’s going to be the first of Jokic’s teammates to make an All-Star team. Shout-out to Jamal Murray — awesome couple of weeks from him.

The Nuggets have won four out of five, which is super impressive when you consider they’re down two starters — two very important starters to their defense — which obviously has been troublesome over the last couple of weeks. But they just keep winning.

2. Detroit Pistons (+2000)

Another 3–1 week for Detroit. They took a bad loss to the Bucks without Giannis, but they did get revenge for that on Saturday. They won a really fun game against the Blazers on Friday where Duncan Robinson hit a monster three on the right wing that iced it.

Winning these close games has been the biggest difference between last year’s Pistons team and this year’s. Last year they were 21–23 in clutch games, below .500 and pretty bad on both ends in crunch time.

This year they have a league-best 13 clutch wins: 13–4 overall in 17 clutch games. Excellent on both ends in those minutes — 130 offensive rating, 102 defensive rating. They’re grabbing 43% of their own misses in clutch time, which is an insane number.

We talked last week about how good Shai’s been in the clutch, and Cade’s been right there with him. Cade is 24 for 45 from the field in the clutch, 53% shooting. That’s insane in crunch time — basically right where Shai is at in the same kind of volume, same kind of efficiency.

Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren are killing teams on the offensive glass at the end of games. I think they have 10 clutch offensive rebounds just between the two of them. Tobias Harris, Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson — they’ve all hit big shots. Dennis Smith Jr. sent a game to overtime with a big shot. They’re all hitting big shots and converting these close games, and that’s driving their record. That’s why we have the Pistons at number two.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (+145)

This is where it gets really interesting. The Thunder were +180 to win the title last week on Hard Rock Bet, and they’re already all the way up to +145 — really starting to gain momentum in the odds.

Another week, another undefeated run for the Thunder. Just an absolute machine. No Shai, no Hartenstein, no Dort on the road in Utah, and they just jump them right out of the gates, go up by 27 points in the first quarter. Just a ridiculous team.

I watched their win against Dallas and thought they put together one of their best offensive halves of the season in that second half. Shai, Jalen Williams, and AJ Mitchell put such insane pressure on the rim with their drives. I left that game thinking: this might be the best duo of drivers to the basket that I’ve seen since LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in the early 2010s.

Shai and Jalen in particular are just relentless beating that first line of the defense and getting into the paint, and everything good comes from there. They’re seemingly always making the right reads, and as you saw in that second half against Dallas, when they get good looks, they’re knocking them down. They’re shooting 43% this season on unguarded catch-and-shoot threes — fifth in the entire NBA. They’re just one of the best shooting teams in the league too.

I have a feeling that by the time we get to July, we’ll be discussing this Thunder team as one of the greatest teams to ever play in the NBA. That’s how special of a level they’ve reached. It’s everyone — even their bench is annihilating people.

I’ll leave you with this stat, which is maybe the craziest stat I can ever remember seeing with an NBA team:

The Oklahoma City Thunder are outscoring opponents by 16.2 points per 100 possessions with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander off the floor this season, in 660 possessions. That’s a pretty substantial sample size. That net rating (+16.2) would be the best in the entire NBA this season — better than any other team’s overall mark.

For one last bit of perspective, let’s compare that to a team that’s actually considered the best basketball team ever by most folks: the 2017 Warriors. The 2017 Warriors with Steph Curry off the floor were +0.2 points per 100 possessions. They were dominant, but they were only dominant with Steph.

This Thunder team is on pace for the most incredible demonstration of organizational excellence from the top down in the history of the NBA. That’s what they have the ability to accomplish this season if they can close the deal all the way through mid-June. They are boat racing teams without their best player. Boat racing them.

It’s unbelievable. That’s one of the wildest stats I can ever remember seeing about an NBA team.