Alright, let’s talk some basketball.
I spent most of this season keeping our contenders in just two tiers: top-tier contenders and second-tier contenders. Essentially, teams with a really good chance to win the title, and teams with a chance, but with a relatively small chance compared to the teams in those top tiers.
So today I really wanted to get more refined. We’re still doing the top 10 contenders in the league, but now I have them split into five different tiers.
So without any further ado, let’s start with our first tier.
Tier 1: A Tier of Their Own
There’s one team in it, and that’s the Oklahoma City Thunder.
No. 1: Oklahoma City Thunder
The issues that plagued the Thunder during their midseason downturn feel like the distant past. They’ve won ten in a row now, and they’ve gone through an absolute gauntlet. They beat Denver twice. They beat the Celtics. They beat the Timberwolves. They beat the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. Five of those wins came against teams in the top six on this list.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks like he might just be the best player in the world right now. He’s hit a whopping 10 clutch field goals during their streak, including five clutch threes, as the Thunder have gone 6-0 in clutch games during that stretch.
They also have a completely different look than they had this time last year — or even just a few months ago — and I think that gives them more versatility in the playoffs. That is their more shooting-based look, thanks to J-Will, who’s been shooting the absolute hell out of the ball from three, and Jared McCain, who’s brought dynamic movement shooting and an off-ball threat as well.
I think this particularly matters for something like the San Antonio matchup. That matchup has been problematic for the Thunder. We’d all be foolish to pretend that problem has just gone away. But the Thunder at least have an option now that they didn’t have in their previous matchups: they can put more shooting on the floor. They have a much better shooting five than they’ve had at any phase over the last few years, and Chet Holmgren has been shooting the ball pretty well too.
The biggest question mark right now for Oklahoma City is J-Dub and this recurring hamstring strain from hell. We just don’t know how explosive he’ll be when he gets to the playoffs or how in rhythm he’ll be with things like his jump shot. But the explosion of Ajay Mitchell has given them pretty good insurance there.
They have the best defense. They might have the best player. They’re incredibly deep with role-player talent. I don’t think they’re unbeatable or anything like that. I don’t view this team the way I did the 2017 Warriors, for example. But to put it very simply, if you had to bet your life savings with even odds on one team to win the title, the Thunder are by far the safest bet.
So I’m putting them in a tier of their own.
Tier 2: Best of the Rest
These two teams check all the boxes you look for when you’re looking at top-tier championship contenders: a bona fide, world-beating top-tier superstar; a truly elite unit; versatility for the different types of opponents you might face; athleticism, shooting, and depth.
These two teams are the Spurs and the Nuggets.
I actually put the Spurs at number two and the Nuggets at number three. To be clear, I don’t view any significant difference between the two teams. I don’t think the Spurs are definitively better than the Nuggets or vice versa. I’m ranking the Spurs at two because of seeding.
There is a very good chance that San Antonio can avoid Denver altogether and just play Oklahoma City, whereas it is a near certainty that Denver will have to play both of them. That matters.
No. 2: San Antonio Spurs
This team has been on a months-long ass-kicking spree. They’ve lost two games total since the beginning of February. They’re 19-2 in that span: best record in the league, number one offense in the league, number four defense in the league, number five rebounding team in the league in that span.
Wemby is looking like a legitimate candidate for best player in the world. No one’s going to give him that credit until he does something in the postseason, and that’s how it should be. But he’s certainly playing at that level right now.
He’s been shooting the hell out of the basketball for weeks now, which has dramatically increased his scoring volume. In his last eight games, he’s averaging 27 points and 11 rebounds an outrageous efficiency with over five blocks per game. I can’t actually overstate his defensive impact. It’s what allows the Spurs to not need to play some of those hyper-athletic forwards who help anchor your defense or rebounding but can’t score. Instead, they can play a jump shooter at the four and a bunch of guards from one through three. That gives them a deadly combination of a top-tier defense and a super fast and skilled offensive lineup.
I’m less worried about the Spurs’ youth than some other young teams in NBA history because so much of their success comes from sheer game-breaking talent like Wemby’s defense rather than experienced ball-handling. That’s not to say I’m 0% worried. I do have concerns about guys like Stephon Castle or Devin Vassell going cold from three in the postseason. But overall, if you ask me right now, “Hey Jason, Oklahoma City doesn’t win the title this year — who do you think is most likely to win it?” I’d lean slightly toward San Antonio.
No. 3: Denver Nuggets
It’s been a super weird season. They’ve been decimated by injuries. They’re below .500 in clutch games, which is straight-up bizarre. That’s caused a lot of the national media, in my opinion, to dramatically underrate this team.
But I still think they check all the boxes of a top-tier championship contender.
They have a top-tier superstar in Jokić. They have a truly elite unit in their offense. They’ve been the best overall offense, and they’re the only team in the league right now with an offensive rating over 120. They have the best half-court offense in the NBA thanks not only to Jokić, but also Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon both being the best versions of themselves offensively that they’ve ever been.
They’ve been a bottom-10 defense this year overall, but most of that has to do with the fact that their forwards have been injured most of the year. When they’ve been healthy, they’ve been very good defensively. So I’m not as worried about their defense relative to what they’ve statistically done this year.
They’re a very good rebounding team. They have a ton of playoff experience. They just check all of the boxes.
My only real concern about Denver relative to previous seasons is their perimeter defense versus quick guards. They are not very well set up to handle the kind of super-quick guards that San Antonio and Oklahoma City bring to the table. The bottom line is, once again, Denver checks all the boxes, but this cursed season has given them not only a historically great Oklahoma City team standing in their way, but a brutal playoff path thanks to the injuries.
That’s why I have them at number three.
Tier 3: Championship Ceiling, Fatal Flaws
I have three teams in this tier: the Celtics, the Timberwolves, and the Knicks.
None of these three teams have a top-tier superstar. They each also have a potentially fatal flaw separate from their star-level talent.
No. 4: Boston Celtics
The Celtics’ bigs can only run deep drop coverage. That makes them super vulnerable to certain types of players, especially bigs that can pick and pop. This has shown up in the numbers. The Celtics have been the worst team in the league this year against pick-and-pop.
No. 5: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves have a profound ability to go absolutely brain-dead on offense, especially against teams that can switch, load up on the strong side, zone up on the backside, and rotate well.
No. 6: New York Knicks
And then with the Knicks, they just have these two gaping entry points into their defense in the form of Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson.
To be clear, it’s not all bad. All three of these teams have really strong metrics. Each of these teams does have a real championship ceiling. I could see Minnesota mauling everybody on defense. The Celtics won the title two years ago, so we’d be foolish to think they can’t win it this year. And the Knicks have arguably been the most impressive Eastern Conference team this year when you combine win percentage and quality of opponent.
But again, the reason why I have those teams below the Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver group is because they lack top-tier superstar talent, and each of those teams has a significant flaw.
So I put the Celtics at number four, the Timberwolves at number five, and the Knicks at number six.
Tier 4: Hardest to Predict
These are the three teams that, when I was making this list, I had the hardest time placing: the Lakers, the Cavs, and the Pistons.
No. 7: LA Lakers
The Lakers are hard to predict because they literally just started taking their season seriously. Over these last few weeks, though, the Lakers have become a dead-serious team. They’ve won seven in a row and looked like a team trying to compete for a title.
They have a top-tier superstar that is peaking right now in Luka. He’s been every bit as good as Jokić, Shai, and Wemby since the All-Star break. They have a truly elite offense, and they’ve figured out how to be at least a slightly above-average defense through aggressive coverages, putting two on the ball, zoning up, and rotating on the backside. If they can sustain it, I think they’re in that third tier. But we’ve got to see more.
No. 8: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs have looked extremely mediocre since the James Harden trade, but Jarrett Allen has missed most of that stretch with his bum knee. When Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen have been on the floor together, they’ve been awesome. But thanks to the Allen injury, the sample size is tiny. So I can’t really evaluate the Cavs until I see them get a few weeks with Allen in the lineup.
No. 9: Detroit Pistons
And the Pistons are the actual definition of the type of team that everyone thinks the Spurs are: a team that looks like a contender in the metrics, but they’re almost certainly overachieving thanks to youthful exuberance. They’ve been one of the most impressive regular-season teams this year. But they also fall in lockstep with the kinds of young teams that have historically struggled in the postseason.
So I put the Lakers at number seven, the Cavs at number eight, and the Pistons at number nine.
Tier 5: The Sore Thumb
The Rockets stick out like a sore thumb.
No. 10: Houston Rockets
They have all the metrics: top 10 in offense, top 10 in defense, best rebounding team in the league. They do have some really big wins this season. But they are just profoundly flawed on both ends of the floor to have any real shot to win multiple playoff rounds.
The best version of the team when they’re healthy still has major defensive questions and major offensive questions. They stick out like a sore thumb in this group of 10.
Alright, guys, that’s all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. We’ll be back tomorrow with some more game reaction. I will see you guys then.
Jason Timpf’s NBA Power Rankings: March 19
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- San Antonio Spurs
- Denver Nuggets
- Boston Celtics
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- New York Knicks
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Detroit Pistons
- Houston Rockets
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