GoLow: John Middlekauff’s Best Bets for THE PLAYERS Championship

THE PLAYERS Championship Preview

Let’s just start this week with a preview of THE PLAYERS. This is an awesome tournament.

It always feels big. Some people call it the fifth major, and honestly, I get it. It looks incredible on television, even if people complain they overwater it and make it look Augusta-green without Augusta difficulty. The rumor this year is they’ve grown the rough out and firmed it up a little. If that’s true, good. This place should be hard.

Since they moved it to March, look at the winners: Rory, JT, Cam Smith when he was on a heater, then Scottie, Scottie, Rory. That’s not fluky. Blue-chip guys win here.

The two things I’m watching this week are pretty simple.

First, Rory’s health. He doesn’t withdraw. In almost two decades, that was his second WD ever. That’s not a maintenance thing. He felt something. He couldn’t even fly Monday. He’s planning to show up Wednesday. With the Masters around the corner, that makes you uneasy. Back injuries don’t just magically disappear, especially the older you get.

Second, Scottie. I’m not jumping ship. I’m not saying he’s cooked. But something’s off. When golf was easy for him, it looked automatic. Now you’re seeing frustration, balls in the water, weird misses. His bad is still better than everyone else’s bad – he finished T24 last week and it felt like a disaster – but it’s something to monitor. A month ago I would’ve said he’s a lock to win a major. Now? I’m not as confident.

That’s what makes this tournament interesting.

Middlekauff’s Best Bets for THE PLAYERS Championship

• Cam Young (+3000)
• Collin Morikawa (Top 10, +190)
• Brooks Koepka (+5000, Top 10 & Top 20)
• Sahith Theegala (Top 10 & Top 20)

I’m going Cam Young outright at 30-1. I get it – terrible record here. Missed the cut last year. Hasn’t sniffed a Top 50. But he’s playing great golf. T7 at Riviera. T3 at Bay Hill in brutal conditions. He’s a shot-maker. He can win a big-boy event. At 30-1, I’m in.

Morikawa Top 10 at +190 feels like an auto bet when he’s trending. When he’s confident and hitting irons like this, he’s one of the PGA Tour‘s best players. Fairways, irons, control – that plays here.

Koepka is the bright-lights guy. He came back for events like this. If he putts even average, he can absolutely contend. At 50-1, that’s worth a look. Top 10, Top 20 – I like those too.

Theegala’s another one. He’s found something. I like him more as a Top 10/Top 20 play than an outright, but he’s live.

No Scottie at short odds. Rory injured. Not touching Xander. I understand the Morikawa outright angle, but I’m riding Cam.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Recap & Reaction

Last week, Akshay won a very, very entertaining Sunday against Daniel Berger. It looked like he was dead and out, and then he started going on a birdie rampage on the back. And he birdied 10, 11, 12, 13. He birdied four holes in a row. Hit probably the shot of his life on a pretty short par five, but he knocked it a couple feet, which I think was obviously the pivotal moment for him because they were tied at the end of it. Then he wins in a playoff. Very cool moment.

I’m not comparing Akshay to Jordan, but there are some parallels to Spieth, like he could blast it into the parallel hole and have to hit it around a tree and grind to make a bogey, or he could hit it within two feet and have a tap-in birdie. Like, you have no clue what’s coming at any moment. He’s a very entertaining player to watch when he’s on.

I think Theegala falls under that a little bit too. They are just wild cards. I mean, anything can happen at any moment. That’s what makes Scottie, for being an all-time great player, kind of boring. When he’s on, he just peppers fairways. He hits it relatively close to the pin. And then he makes a lot of birdies.

Part of what made Tiger and Phil all-time great entertainers is crazy stuff could happen at any moment. Tiger was all over the place off the tee. Phil was notorious for doing crazy stuff around the greens. Some of Tiger’s most iconic shots are around trees, over trees. You know, part of Scottie is – what are his iconic shots? Hitting five irons seven feet from 210 yards.

It’s just a little different. I’m all for the entertainment value of guys like Akshay. So give me more Akshay.

LIV Golf: The History Problem and Team Golf

There’s a simple reality, and this is what LIV is never going to be able to overcome. Their events have no history.

When Akshay wins Bay Hill, there are 20 years worth of highlights of Tiger winning, of Scottie Scheffler winning. Winning that event means something – Arnold Palmer greeting people coming off the fairway. When you win at THE PLAYERS, there’s a list from Phil to Tiger to Freddie Couples to Greg Norman. There’s history behind the event.

When Rahm wins in Hong Kong, which was his first win on LIV – it’s cool that he wins. Clearly he’s playing well. He’s going to have momentum. But it doesn’t mean anything.

Part of Anthony Kim winning in Australia was not that he won some historic event. It was that he had overcome a drug addiction, had not played golf for over a decade and a half, and just beat Rahm and Bryson on the golf course. That moment was cool because of the story, not because of the tournament.

You don’t overcome the history problem. And at this point in time, they’re not poaching any top guys. People have kind of put their flag in. Their crew is their crew. If anything, they’re losing guys. Patrick Reed’s out. Koepka’s out. Bryson feels on the fence. Rahm financially doesn’t have a choice.

And I’ll just say it – no one cares about team golf. I know the players hype it up, but as a consumer, I do not care about team golf in random tournaments. It’s an individual sport. There’s a reason more people are watching Nadal play Federer than they are watching doubles.

The Ryder Cup is different. The Presidents Cup is different. Zurich when you play with a partner is different. But random team branding? I just don’t care.

They’ve already spent billions of dollars. Maybe they try to merge. But even if they stole Rory and Morikawa tomorrow, their events still don’t have any history. And I just don’t think you can manufacture that overnight.