FantasyPros: Best Spots for NFL Week 16

With playoff spots on the line and injury reports shaping every slate, we’ve locked in our two favorite directional plays for NFL Week 16 – one on the rise, the other sinking fast.

Let’s dive into our favorite spots for this week’s Hard Rock Bet Best Bets.

Erickson’s Hard Rock Best Bet: Ride Audric Estime in Week 16

If you’ve been waiting for Audric Estime’s breakout moment, Week 16 might just be your chance to board the train.

The Saints’ backfield has become a revolving door. Alvin Kamara continues to deal with an MCL issue, and based on where New Orleans sits competitively, there’s little incentive to rush him back. Devin Neal re-aggravated a hamstring injury last week and never returned to the field. That leaves two backs standing: Audric Estime and Evan Hull.

Once Neal exited, the workload split was essentially 50/50 – but Estime held the edge in touches and snap rate. More importantly, when the Saints needed reliable plays during the final drive, Estime was the one getting the passing-game work. That kind of trust goes a long way.

A Matchup Too Good to Ignore

Let’s not overthink this: the Jets have become a funnel matchup for running backs. Their last five outings have turned opposing RBs into league winners.

The pattern is loud, consistent, and profitable – start the RB against the Jets. Even a defensive coordinator change isn’t likely to reverse that trajectory.

With the Saints entering as home favorites and likely leaning on the ground game, the volume could easily stretch into the 20+ carry range if Estime gets rolling.

Talent + Opportunity = Flex Appeal

Estime’s profile remains intriguing: 5’11”, 227 pounds, a physical runner with underrated space skills. His 40 time tanked his draft stock, but the tape out of Notre Dame told a different story. He’s bounced around the league – Denver, Philly’s practice squad – but now finds himself in a backfield where opportunity is finally meeting ability.

If you’re in the semifinals and need upside, Estime is firmly in the flex conversation.

Worm’s Hard Rock Best Bet: Fade the Raiders

If optimism defines Erickson’s pick, mine is the opposite.

The Raiders will improve from their historically awful offensive performance last week – but still produce zero legitimate fantasy starters against Houston.

Why the Raiders Remain a Pass

Houston’s defense has tightened significantly, and Las Vegas’ implied team total is one of the lowest of the week. Even with some positive regression expected after their 31-0 disaster, the offensive ecosystem remains broken.

My angle: take the under on any Brock Bowers prop. Any line, any category.

It’s not just Bowers. The Raiders simply don’t have many fantasy-relevant options right now beyond Bowers and Ashton Jeanty – and both face a brutally difficult matchup.

Context Only Makes It Worse

The Raiders are on the road. Pete Carroll is reportedly coaching without job concerns. All signs point toward the Raiders playing from behind against a defense that has consistently shut down middle-of-the-pack offenses.

Even if Las Vegas moves the ball better than last week (they practically have to), the fantasy ceiling is still scraping the floor.

Final Thoughts

Week 16 offers two very different fantasy/betting opportunities:

• Audric Estime represents everything we chase in the fantasy playoffs: talent, volume and matchup. If Neal and Kamara remain out, he’s a flex play with real RB1 upside.
• The Raiders, meanwhile, continue to be a weekly exercise in frustration. Worm’s fade – especially through a Bowers under – remains one of the safest angles on the slate.

Whether you’re trying to advance to your fantasy football championship or hunting a betting edge, our Hard Rock Best Bets deliver two clear pathways to winning this week: ride Estime, fade the Raiders.