Dolphins vs. Steelers: Richard Sherman’s Pick for Monday Night Football

We get a fascinating matchup tonight as Miami heads into Pittsburgh to take on a Steelers team fighting to stay alive in the AFC playoff race. Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook has Pittsburgh as a three-point favorite, and for two teams whose seasons have swung wildly week to week, that number reflects exactly what this game is: unpredictable, physical, and deeply meaningful.

Miami brings the speed. Pittsburgh brings the edge. Both bring urgency.

Let’s dive into it.

Why This Game Starts – and Might End – With Quarterback Volatility

Miami’s offense has been explosive in stretches, stagnant in others. That inconsistency starts under center. When Tua Tagovailoa plays on schedule and with rhythm, Miami looks like a top-five offense. When timing breaks down, their efficiency evaporates quickly.

Against a Steelers defense that thrives on disruption, this matchup becomes all about timing vs. turmoil.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, needs its own passing game to stabilize. The Steelers have lived in close games all season, and tonight won’t be any different unless they find balance early.

Why Pittsburgh Can Control the Matchup

When I look at the Steelers, their clearest advantage is on the defensive side. This group can dictate games when their pressure packages land, and they don’t need to send the house to make quarterbacks uncomfortable.

Against a timing-based attack like Miami’s, that’s a real weapon.

Here’s where Pittsburgh can tilt the game:

1. Disrupting Miami’s First Read: Tua is lethal when his first option is clean. When it isn’t, windows shrink – fast.
2. Winning With Physicality at the Catch Point: Miami’s receivers feast on leverage and space. Take away clean releases, and the speed becomes less terrifying.
3. Controlling Game Flow With Sustained Drives: The Steelers don’t need fireworks – they need possessions. Every long drive keeps Miami’s offense cold.

If Pittsburgh’s defense sets the tone early, the Steelers can stretch this into the type of grinder they specialize in.

Where Miami Can Flip the Script

The Dolphins still have something no defense enjoys preparing for: overwhelming acceleration. A clean pocket turns their offense into a track meet, and even minor breakdowns become explosive plays.

Tonight, the key is simple: Miami must stay ahead of the sticks. Third-and-long against the Steelers is a recipe for disaster.

Miami’s path to control:

• Quick-game rhythm to neutralize pressure
• Letting skill players win horizontally before vertically
• Avoiding negative plays – the Steelers feed on them

If Miami plays clean football, they can absolutely steal this game on the road.

The Key Matchup That Decides the Spread

This game comes down to one theme: Can Miami’s offense stay on schedule against a defense built to knock teams off it?

Pittsburgh wins when its front seven forces hesitation. Miami wins when its timing stays intact.

Three things matter most when betting on this spread:

1. Early Down Success: Miami must keep the full playbook open.
2. Field Position: Pittsburgh thrives in short fields; Miami thrives in space.
3. Explosive Plays vs. Explosive Stops: The Dolphins create chunk plays. The Steelers create sudden changes. One of those identities will swing the game.

My Final Read on Dolphins vs. Steelers

This is a stylistic chess match. Pittsburgh wants to drag Miami into a physical, possession-heavy contest. Miami wants speed and separation. One team is going to dictate terms – and that team likely covers.

The Steelers have more pathways to win ugly. The Dolphins have more pathways to win fast.

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Here’s who we’re eyeing to find the end zone tonight:

• Jaylen Warren: If he’s able to suit up tonight, Pittsburgh leans on him inside the red zone.
• DK Metcalf: The big-play threat whose matchup fits the game script.
• De’Von Achane: As explosive as they come; every touch is a scoring chance.