The first day of the 2026 MLB playoffs concludes with Game 1 of a best-of-three National League Wild Card Series between the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs at Petco Park, with first pitch scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Both teams clinched postseason berths as the top two NL Wild Card teams, with the Padres earning home-field advantage as the No. 4 seed.
The Padres had an excellent finish to the regular season and enter the playoffs hot, having won 17 of their last 20 games, including back-to-back wins against Arizona in the final two contests. San Diego’s offense was a large reason for that, recording the most hits and, in turn, the highest batting average among all teams while also sitting near the top in several other major statistical categories since the All-Star break. The pitching staff was also very solid in the second half of the season.
The Cubs don’t enter in quite as good of form, but Chicago’s offense has been just as dominant since the All-Star break. The Cubs were No. 1 in home runs, RBIs, runs scored, slugging percentage, and OPS in the second half of the season, backed largely by likely 2026 NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong and his 45-home run, 107-RBI campaign. Crow-Armstrong also stole 41 bases, becoming the seventh player in MLB history to join the 40-40 Club with at least 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases.
Tuesday night’s pitching matchup features a pair of veterans as 2025 All-Star left-hander Matthew Boyd takes the mound for the Cubs and will be opposed by Padres right-hander Michael King. Boyd posted a 10-5 record with a 3.91 ERA across 22 starts in the regular season, while King went 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA through 32 starts. However, King did allow five earned runs in a loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in his final start on Sept. 22.
Take a look at Cubs vs. Padres predictions, picks, and more ahead of Game 1 of Tuesday night’s NL Wild Card Series at Petco Park.
Cubs vs. Padres Odds for Game 1
Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook lists the Padres as home favorites against the Cubs:
- Moneyline: Padres -125, Cubs +105
- Run Line: Padres -1.5 (+170), Cubs +1.5 (-210)
- Total (Runs): Over 7.5 (+100), Under 7.5 (-120)
Cubs vs. Padres Wild Card Series Winner Odds
Just as the Padres are listed as favorites for Game 1, San Diego is also favored at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook to win this NL Wild Card Series and advance to the NLDS to face Milwaukee:
- Padres to Win NL Wild Card Series: -125
- Cubs to Win NL Wild Card Series: +105
Cubs vs. Padres Predictions
Our Cubs vs. Padres prediction below was picked out using baseball betting insights and trends from the Stats Hub at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook, so make sure to check it out while getting in on the MLB playoff action:
Padres vs. Cubs Best Bet: Over 0.5 1st Inning Total Runs (+115)
The Stats Hub notes that there has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Padres’ last six home games against NL Central opponents, making the No Run First Inning market – listed as 1st Inning Total Runs at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook and otherwise known as NRFI – intriguing. However, we’re going against that trend and looking at a Yes Run First Inning (YRFI).
With the likes of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman at the top of the lineup for the Cubs and Fernando Tatís Jr. and Manny Machado at the top of the Padres’ lineup, there’s too much offensive firepower to ignore. Matthew Boyd and Michael King have pitched well this season, but these offensive players understand what’s at stake in a short playoff series like this and will be looking to get their respective teams on the board early to hopefully swing momentum in their favor.
- Padres vs. Cubs YRFI Pick for NL Wild Card Game 1: Over 0.5 1st Inning Total Runs (+115)
Top 5 Most-Bet Player Props for CHC-SD
Crow-Armstrong and Tatís Jr. are unsurprisingly the popular selections in the player prop markets for this playoff matchup:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over 0.5 Home Runs
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over 0.5 Hits
- Fernando Tatís Jr. – Over 0.5 Home Runs
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over 1.5 RBIs
- Fernando Tatís Jr. – Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
Cubs vs. Padres Betting Splits for Game 1
Here’s how the action is trending at Hard Rock Bet for Cubs vs. Padres Game 1 in the NL Wild Card Series at Petco Park Tuesday night:
- The Padres are receiving more support on the moneyline with 56.59% of bets and 63.03% of the handle.
- The Cubs, meanwhile, are drawing more run line action with 59.93% of bets and 56.59% of the handle.
- The total leans toward the Over, which accounts for 74.65% of bets and 70.70% of the handle.
Cubs vs. Padres Game Info
- 📍 Where: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- 📅 Date: Tuesday, Sept. 29
- ⏰ First Pitch: 10:00 PM ET
- 📺💻 TV/Streaming: Peacock, NBCSN
- ⚾ Probable Pitchers:
- Cubs: Matthew Boyd
- Padres: Michael King
- 🏆 Stage: NL Wild Card Series – Game 1
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Referenced odds are subject to change.
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