Chiefs Still Own the AFC — and Monday Night in Jacksonville Should Be Proof

For the last game of NFL Week 5 the Kansas City Chiefs head into Monday Night Football as 3.5-point favorites at Jacksonville, and frankly, that number feels light. The Jaguars have one of the weakest home-field advantages in the league, and while Trevor Lawrence remains a talented quarterback, he’s also reliably good for one mistake that changes the game. It’s not that we distrust Jacksonville entirely — it’s that we trust Kansas City more when it matters.

The Chiefs’ win over Baltimore looked impressive at first glance, but context matters. Baltimore just got blown out at home by Houston, so we’re not exactly crowning Kansas City for that one. Still, the takeaway wasn’t about who they beat — it was how they’re evolving. Xavier Worthy has quietly unlocked the middle of the field for Patrick Mahomes, forcing defenses to respect speed and spacing again. Kansas City may still lack a true run game, but Mahomes and Andy Reid can manufacture ball control through precision passing. That keeps them dangerous even when they’re trying to bleed clock late.

An uneven story in Jacksonville

Jacksonville, on the other hand, feels stuck. Defensively, they’re solid — physical, disciplined, well-coached. But offensively, it’s the same uneven story. Lawrence flashes talent but rarely dominance. We wanted to believe two years ago, but the trajectory hasn’t matched the hype. Brian Thomas Jr. is having a weird year, he’s banged up, Travis Hunter has been MIA. Against a Steve Spagnuolo defense that thrives on pressure and disguise, that’s a bad recipe.

Finding motivation for KC

At this point, Kansas City almost feels like the Kevin Durant-era Warriors — a dynasty that needs fresh motivation to care about the regular season. A few early stumbles seem to have woken them up. The rest of the AFC? The Chargers are injured, the Broncos are searching for an identity, the Ravens are melting down, and the Bills have been here and beaten before. The Chiefs know this is still their conference to lose.

This one has the makings of a grind-it-out, 20–10 kind of game — the kind Kansas City wins (and covers the spread) because they’ve been there before. Expect a sluggish pace, a few Mahomes flashes, and a Jacksonville team that once again can’t quite measure up.

Pick: Chiefs by a touchdown.

Referenced odds provided by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook and are subject to change.