Champions League Draw: Odds Movement Shows Clear Winners & Losers

The Champions League draw took place this morning and it didn’t just shape the bracket — it completely reshaped the futures betting market.

The reason? One side of the bracket is a bloodbath, and the other suddenly looks like a clear road to Budapest, where the final will be played on May 30th.

Below we break down the winners and losers from the Champions League Round of 16 draw, and how the Champions League odds on Hard Rock Bet Sporsbook have changed as a result.

🏆 Champions League Draw Winners

Simply put, any team that landed on the right side of the bracket will be liking their chances of reaching the final.

Arsenal – The Favorite

• Champions League Winner Odds Before the Draw: +350 (3.5-1)
• Champions League Winner Odds After the Draw: +250 (2.5-1)

Arsenal appear to be the biggest beneficiary of the draw.

Arsenal avoided the gauntlet on the left-side of the bracket featuring Real Madrid, Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Liverpool, PSG, and Chelsea. The soccer betting markets responded immediately, slashing them into clear tournament favorites.

That’s a massive vote of confidence — and a reflection of how much cleaner their path now looks.

Barcelona

• Odds Before Draw: +800 (8-1)
• Odds After Draw: +650 (6.5-1)

Barcelona, the La Liga leaders, quietly made out extremely well, too. While other European giants landed in the heavyweight bracket, Barça landed on the comparatively softer side and saw their odds shorten significantly.

They now sit firmly in the second tier of contenders with a real shot of making the final.

Atletico Madrid

• Odds Before Draw: +3000 (30-1)
• Odds After Draw: +1600 (16-1)

Atletico Madrid were among the biggest beneficiaries of the favorable draw. The three-time finalists saw their odds to lift Europe’s most coveted trophy halved from 30-1 to 16-1 following Friday’s reveal. They open against Tottenham in the Round of 16, with a potential quarterfinal clash against either Barcelona or Newcastle — a far more navigable path than many of the heavyweights on the opposite side.

Newcastle United

• Odds Before Draw: +4000 (40-1)
• Odds After Draw: +2500 (25-1)

One of the most dramatic improvements on the board belongs to Newcastle United.

The draw effectively transformed Newcastle from a major underdog to legitimate dark horse in the tournament. A cleaner route to the semifinal means their ceiling just rose dramatically. They face Barcelona in the Round of 16, but will be a force should they manage to advance.

Tottenham

• Odds Before Draw: +3000 (30-1)
• Odds After Draw: +2500 (25-1)

Spurs gained meaningful equity. In a tournament where path matters enormously, simply avoiding the superpowers is worth a substantial bump. They will matchup with Atletico Madrid in the Round of 16 and will face the winner of Barcelona and Newcastle.

Bodø/Glimt & Sporting CP

• Odds Before Draw: +6000 (60-1)
• Odds After Draw: +5000 (50-1)

Still longshots — but better longshots than before… and one of the two will move on to the quarterfinals as they play each other in the Round of 16. It’s worth mentioning that Bodø/Glimt were as low as 1000-1 before eliminating Inter Milan.

💀 Champions League Draw Losers

Every team that landed on the left side of the Champions League bracket took a hit in the betting markets, with odds ballooning across the board.

Chelsea

• Odds Before Draw: +1750 (17.5-1)
• Odds After Draw: +2500 (25-1)

A major drift for the Blues after the draw. Chelsea now must survive a side loaded with elite European royalty. Their road would require multiple heavyweight showdowns — starting with reigning Champions League holders PSG, with a potential second-round collision against Premier League champions Liverpool looming.

Liverpool

• Odds Before Draw: +700 (7-1)
• Odds After Draw: +1000 (10-1)

Liverpool were among the stronger second-tier contenders before the draw. Now? They’re buried in the deepest part of the bracket at 10-1.

Real Madrid

• Odds Before Draw: +900 (9-1)
• Odds After Draw: +1200 (12-1)

Even the Kings of Europe weren’t spared. The market shaved their probability from 9-1 to 12-1 following the challenging draw. Real Madrid hold just the 7th-best odds to win the Champions League with 16 teams still alive and will face Manchester City in a Round of 16 glamor tie.

PSG

• Odds Before Draw: +800 (8-1)
• Odds After Draw: +1000 (10-1)

The current holders dipped from 8-1 to 10-1 after the draw. They’re capable of running the gauntlet, but it won’t be easy. They’ll need to defeat Chelsea in the first round, and have to survive a knockout tie with Liverpool for the second year in a row to have a chance.

Bayern Munich

• Odds Before Draw: +450 (4.5-1)
• Odds After Draw: +550 (5.5-1)

Bayern Munich were right up there with Arsenal as tournament favorites before the draw. However, the German squad dipped from 4.5 to 5.5-1 after it. They’ll face Atalanta in the Round of 16, and the winner of Manchester City and Real Madrid in the Quarters.

Manchester City

• Odds Before Draw: +700 (7-1)
• Odds After Draw: +800 (8-1)

Not a massive drift — but still telling. The market acknowledges that even City’s margin for error shrank significantly after drawing Real Madrid in the knockout round for the fifth year in a row.

Atalanta

• Odds Before Draw: +7500 (75-1)
• Odds After Draw: +10000 (100-1)

After overturning a 2-0 first-leg deficit against Dortmund, the Italian side had momentum entering the final 16. However, Atalanta saw their odds plummet from 75-1 to 100-1 after the tricky draw.

Galatasaray

• Odds Before Draw: +7500 (75-1)
• Odds After Draw: +20000 (200-1)

The harshest adjustment of all. A brutal path sent the Turkish Giants odds of a Champions League title plummeting.

⚖️ Neutral

Just one team saw no odds movement as a result of the draw:

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen remain 75-1 (+7500) following the draw. They landed on the right side, but have one of the more challenging Round of 16 matchups with Arsenal.

The Big Takeaway

One side of the bracket now features:

• Real Madrid
• Manchester City
• Bayern Munich
• Liverpool
• PSG
• Chelsea

…and only one team survives. As a result, the odds of winning the tournament for every club drawn to that side of the bracket got worse.

Meanwhile, Arsenal and Barcelona headline a far more forgiving half.

All referenced odds are subject to change.