Maybe North Carolina isn’t as bad as we thought it was going to be, even with all the craziness surrounding Bill Belichick. And maybe Clemson is just that bad.
We’ll find out a lot more when the Tar Heels head to Death Valley this week, but that’s only one of several numbers that caught our attention when the opening lines went up at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
Let’s get into some of the more intriguing opening numbers for College Football Week 3 and NFL Week 2.
North Carolina (+3.5) at Clemson
We’re not ready to hang our hats on how great North Carolina is just yet. The Tar Heels have played TCU at a neutral site in another country and then ETSU, so we don’t have enough of a sample size from UNC in a tough spot to prove how good this team actually is.
That’s what makes this trip to Death Valley such an important test.
Clemson is 1-1 after losing its huge game to LSU before playing Georgia Southern. North Carolina now gets an opportunity to show what it can do in a much different environment.
This will be a big moment for Bill Belichick. If he wins in Death Valley, then we can start taking the Tar Heels seriously.
Clemson, meanwhile, has done very little to inspire confidence.
No. 22 Houston (+7.5) at No. 13 Texas Tech
Houston-Texas Tech was one of the numbers that immediately jumped out when the early Week 3 lines were posted.
Texas Tech opened as a 10.5-point favorite at Hard Rock Bet before the number moved down to 7.5. That comes after the Red Raiders went to Oregon State and had the Beavers on their heels before eventually pulling away late.
So here’s what we’re going to find out: Is Texas Tech good?
This also feels like an important point in the market. If you’re going to bet against Texas Tech, this could be one of the final opportunities before the numbers truly adjust.
Oddsmakers don’t tend to overreact extensively, and neither should we. But Texas Tech hasn’t looked good through its first two games, and that makes it difficult to feel good about putting money on the Red Raiders right now.
Houston hasn’t faced anybody either, but at least the Cougars looked good against the nobody they played Saturday. We also have two teams with a similar opponent in Oregon State and both looked shaky against the Beavers.
For Kelly, that’s enough to have an early side in mind – it’s Houston.
It’s a Kelly in Vegas type special. Houston was picked to finish around the middle of the Big 12, and there are still questions about exactly how good or bad the Cougars will be. But Texas Tech remains a team Kelly is looking to fade until further notice.
Willie Fritz as an underdog also adds another element to the matchup. When you’re the hunted, the dynamic changes, and Texas Tech put a very large bullseye on itself this year with everything that happened in July and early August.
The rest of the Big 12 is gunning for the Red Raiders.
Maybe, just maybe, all of that NIL money can’t buy you a College Football Playoff appearance and a Big 12 championship.
NFL Week 2 Opening Lines
There’s already some major movement across the NFL board as well.
The Bucs are getting some love after coming up too little, too late against Cincinnati, while Buffalo has moved from a 3.5-point favorite to four against Detroit in its first game at the new stadium.
There are several interesting early moves to watch, but two numbers in particular caught our attention:
Giants (+7) at Rams on Monday Night Football
The Rams-Giants line for Monday Night Football was one of the first numbers Ariel noticed, with Los Angeles laying more than a touchdown.
The Giants looked good defensively and pretty good offensively, while the Rams now have to deal with another unusual circumstance after returning from Australia.
The Rams do have a long break between games, and maybe the books know something we don’t. The same applies to San Francisco after making the Australia trip, with the 49ers laying nearly two touchdowns against Miami.
Maybe getting to Australia early ultimately benefited San Francisco. Maybe they’re now operating on the wrong clock after coming home. It’s something worth considering before automatically treating either team like this is a normal week.
For Ariel, though, the Rams number is particularly difficult to understand after what we saw from the Giants.
Based on how the Giants played versus how the Rams played, laying more than a touchdown in that game stands out.
Vikings (+5.5) at Bears
Minnesota was the other early number that immediately made our list.
Kelly has made her feelings about 5.5-point underdogs pretty clear over the years – she loves them.
We just saw another example with Washington. The Commanders opened at +5.5 against Philadelphia before the number was bet all the way to +6.5, and the Eagles ultimately won by two.
All things considered, Vikings +5.5 is an early look for Kelly heading into Week 2.
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