BettingPros Picks: Ohio State Early, Points Late, and One NBA Spot I Can’t Ignore

There are nights where the betting card writes itself, and then there are nights like this—where you have to be comfortable being a little uncomfortable. This slate is about timing, market overreaction, and understanding how games are likely to play out rather than just who is better.

I’ve got three plays I’m locked into today: two from the college football playoff quarterfinal between Ohio State and Miami, and one NBA team total that I think the market is still mispricing.

Let’s start with the game everyone has an opinion on.

Ohio State vs. Miami: Same Game, Two Different Bets

Ohio State just won the national championship last year, and people forget how that run actually started. Those first two playoff games weren’t tight, tactical chess matches—they were blowouts. Dominant early performances that essentially ended the game before halftime.

This Buckeye team isn’t identical, but what is the same is how Ohio State starts games.

Ohio State has been an absolute monster in the first half all season. I’m not interested in laying double digits for the full game spread here. Ten points is a big number on a neutral field against a Miami team that deserves credit for its season. But I have no problem laying five and a half in the first half.

Ohio State in the first half this year has been one of the most profitable betting angles in the country:

• 10–2–1 ATS
• Covering at roughly 83%
• Second-best first-half cover rate nationally, behind only Texas Tech

It didn’t matter whether it was Big Ten opponents or non-conference games. Ohio State came out fast, prepared, and aggressive. When you give this coaching staff extended prep time, that edge only grows.

Miami fans are excited—and they should be. But I think there’s a little overreaction to what Miami did against Texas A&M, especially when you factor in how poor the quarterback play was for A&M in that game. Carson Beck is still a concern for me. I’m not suddenly ready to back him in a playoff setting on a neutral field and assume everything will be clean.

If Miami is going to be in this game, I think it happens late, not early. I expect Ohio State to score early and often against a Miami defense that will have a tough time adjusting right out of the gate.

• Play #1: Ohio State -5.5 (First Half)

That’s the Hard Rock Bet of the Day for me.

Why I’m Going Against the World on the Total

Now let’s talk about the total, because this is where I’m fully embracing the contrarian side.

Everyone seems to love the under in this game. Betting podcasts, social media, consensus picks—it’s all “under, under, under.”

I don’t buy it.

I think the total of 40.5 is simply too low.

Yes, I know the trends:

• Miami was 4–1 to the under away from home
• Ohio State was 6–0 to the under
• Both teams have played in low-scoring games recently

This is the lowest total either team has had all season.

The Ohio State–Wisconsin game with a similar total went under because Wisconsin literally couldn’t score. Ohio State put up 34 points by itself. That’s not an under formula—that’s a one-sided offensive performance.

The Texas game everyone references? That was in August. Different Buckeye team. Different offensive rhythm.

The Indiana game? A strange, slow, grind-it-out matchup that doesn’t resemble this setting at all.

We’re on a fast track, on a neutral field, with elite athletes who thrive on timing routes, explosive cuts, and space. This isn’t a cold-weather slog or a wind-filled outdoor game.

I also think Miami’s offense will find points—maybe not early, but late. As long as Carson Beck isn’t throwing interceptions, Miami should be able to generate opportunities in the second half. Something like 28–20 is very much on the table.

And on the Ohio State side, the offense is capable of doing its share:

• 27 vs. Michigan
• 48 vs. UCLA
• 34 vs. Illinois

This offensive line is NFL-caliber. It wins the line of scrimmage year after year. Miami’s defensive front is good, but over four quarters, Ohio State will find ways to move the ball—especially late.

There’s also an in-game angle here. If this starts slowly and the live total drops into the mid-30s, I’d like the over even more. But at 40.5 pregame, I think the market has gone too far chasing the under narrative.

• Play #2: Ohio State vs. Miami OVER 40.5

Sometimes you have to be comfortable standing alone.

NBA: Timberwolves Team Total vs. Hawks

I’ve got one NBA play, and it’s a team total I really like.

Minnesota is on the road in Atlanta, and the Hawks have lost seven straight games. Kristaps Porziņģis is expected to play, and I think there’s a mild overreaction to his return—particularly defensively.

This isn’t about questioning Porziņģis as a player. It’s about context.

He hasn’t played in 10 games. When you’re dealing with a condition like POTS, you don’t just step back onto the court and play 38–40 minutes at full capacity. Even if he helps Atlanta defensively in spots, his minutes will be managed, and his legs are a real question.

More importantly: Trae Young is out.

Atlanta’s defense has been a disaster, especially during this losing streak. Look at the points they’ve allowed at home recently:

• 133
• 126
• 152
• 126
• 126
• 128
• 140

We don’t need a ceiling game from Minnesota. We just need Atlanta to keep doing what it’s been doing.

Minnesota averages:

• 123.9 points per game on the road
• 127 points per game over its last three

The Timberwolves team total is set at 123.5. If they play an average road game, this clears.

I don’t love laying the spread here because the line movement feels a little off, and I’m not convinced this turns into a blowout. But Minnesota scoring? That I trust.

• Play #3: Timberwolves Team Total OVER 123.5

The Card

So here’s what I’m playing today:

1. Ohio State -5.5 (First Half) – Hard Rock Bet of the Day
2. Ohio State vs. Miami OVER 40.5
3. Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total OVER 123.5

Three plays. Clear logic. No need to force anything else.

Happy New Year, and I’ll see you back here for the first episode of 2026.