On last week’s show, we joked about wanting final-round drama – and then watched Justin Rose remove all suspense by Friday afternoon.
The Farmers Insurance Open turned into a full-blown runaway. Rose opened with a 62 on Torrey Pines North, backed it up with a jaw-dropping 65 on the South Course, and effectively ended the tournament before the weekend even began. By Sunday, he was cruising home, finishing 23-under par and winning by seven shots. If you didn’t bet Justin Rose, you were drawing thin early – and thinner as the week went on.
That wire-to-wire domination made for a rough betting card for both of us. Tony Finau missed a Top-10 ticket by a single shot – Ryan Gerard, Haotong Li, and Finau all landed tied for 11th. No blood drawn. No profit booked. Lesson learned.
Now, the PGA Tour trades the cliffs of Torrey Pines for the Arizona desert – and a very different kind of challenge.
Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview
The Waste Management Phoenix Open always lands during Super Bowl week, and while we can’t guarantee a dramatic finish, we can guarantee madness. TPC Scottsdale is half golf tournament, half street festival, drawing massive galleries and turning pressure up to eleven – especially on the iconic 16th hole, where players hit wedges into what feels like a packed coliseum.
The course itself is a par-71 stretching 7,261 yards. The 15th is a true risk-reward par five, the 17th is a drivable par four with water lurking everywhere, and the 18th demands precision when nerves are already fried.
From a betting perspective, this isn’t a “one-type-wins” course. Bombers have won. Putters have won. What does matter is course history. TPC Scottsdale is one of the most predictive venues on Tour – right up there with Augusta and Waialae. Horses for courses is not optional here.
The weather? Perfect. Sunny skies, light winds, highs near 80. If someone doesn’t score, it won’t be the conditions’ fault.
Hard Rock Bets of the Week
With Scottie Scheffler once again looming over the outright board, both of us took a familiar approach: bet around him instead of fighting him.
Bo McBreer’s Hard Rock Bet of the Week
I’m leaning into the Winner Without Scottie Scheffler market and firing on Kurt Kitayama at 45-1.
Kitayama has the kind of profile that works here – strong ball-striking, comfortable in birdie contests, and no fear of the environment.
And because it’s Super Bowl week, I couldn’t resist getting creative.
I’m parlaying Scottie Scheffler outright with Seahawks -4.5, trusting Scottie to handle business while backing a convincing win from Seattle. It’s the same logic that worked last time: let the most likely winner do his job, then build value around it.
The rest of my betting card includes:
- Si Woo Kim – Winner Without Scottie (+2100)
- Sahith Theegala – Winner Without Scottie (+3300)
- Kurt Kitayama – With and Without Scottie (+5900 & +4500)
- Long shots on Max Homa (+11500) and Joel Dahmen (+19000)
It’s a wide net, but one tailored to course history and volatility.
Pat Fitzmaurice’s Hard Rock Bet of the Week
I’m also attacking the Without Scottie market, backing Jake Knapp at 40-1.
Knapp has flashed upside in birdie-friendly setups, and this is exactly the type of event where a heater week can vault someone into contention. At that price, I see real value.
My full card leans more toward placement markets:
- Pierceson Coody – Outright (55-1) and Top 5 (+840)
- Sahith Theegala – Top 5 (+840)
- Tony Finau – Top 20 (+315)
It’s a blend of upside and protection – betting players who fit the course while avoiding the need to beat Scottie outright.
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