What’s going on, everybody? Last week, we landed right around .500 – but that means it’s time to bounce back strong. I’ve got a mix of spreads, totals, and a Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week I absolutely love. Let’s dive right into my favorite college football bets for Week 9.
Ole Miss (+5.5) at Oklahoma
The more I look at this matchup, the more I like Ole Miss catching points. Oklahoma’s defense has been solid, no doubt, but they haven’t faced an offense of this caliber yet. The Rebels rank 16th in scoring nationally, and Lane Kiffin’s group can put up points on anyone. Give me Ole Miss plus the points on the road.
BYU (+2.5) at Iowa State
This is my “fade-the-public” pick of the week. Everyone’s expecting a letdown from BYU after their emotional win over Utah, but I don’t see it. The Cougars are 7-0 and rolling, while Iowa State has been inconsistent and soft against the run – ranking 133rd out of 136 teams.
BYU loves to pound the rock, running the ball on 60 percent of its snaps. If Iowa State’s top interior lineman “Big Citrus” Dom Orange misses time, that physical run game is going to eat them alive. I think BYU not only covers but wins this one outright. Sprinkle a little on that moneyline if you’re feeling brave.
South Carolina Team Total Under 16.5
I’m doubling down on this one from last week. South Carolina’s offense is broken – plain and simple. The offensive line can’t protect LaNorris Sellers, and he’s forced to do everything himself. Against Oklahoma, their lone touchdown drive was gift-wrapped after a shanked punt.
Now they face Alabama, whose pass rush has been improving each week. Even though the Tide hasn’t been elite at getting sacks this season, they’re generating more pressure and that spells big trouble for an already-overwhelmed Gamecock front. Until South Carolina proves otherwise, the under 16.5 is an automatic play.
Cincinnati (-3.5) vs Baylor and Over 66.5
We’re going double up here – taking both the Bearcats -3.5 and the over 66.5. Both Cincinnati and Baylor play at lightning speed, each ranking inside the top 25 in pace. Baylor is 4th in the nation in offensive tempo, while Cincinnati sits 23rd.
That kind of pace means possessions galore and lots of scoring chances. Neither defense has shown much resistance lately, and with weather looking clear in this one, I expect fireworks. Cincy is the more complete team, so we’ll lay the 3.5 and hammer the over.
Auburn at Arkansas Over 56.5
Weather permitting, this is one of my favorite overs of the week. Arkansas can’t stop anyone, and Auburn’s offense is due for a breakout performance. Sam Pittman is gone, and interim-era games tend to open up – Bobby Petrino knows how to scheme up points.
Jackson Arnold hasn’t been consistent, but against this Razorbacks D, he won’t have to be perfect. If Saturday morning’s forecast calls for low wind and manageable rain, I’m pulling the trigger on the over 56.5.
Toledo at Washington State Under 46.5
We’re heading in the other direction in Pullman. There’s a 100% chance of rain and sustained winds near 17 mph. That kind of weather crushes passing efficiency, kicking, and special teams – basically everything that leads to points.
Toledo is a good MAC squad, but traveling across the country into this storm against a tough Washington State defense is a recipe for a low-scoring game. The under 46.5 is the play here.
Tennessee Team Total Over 31.5 at Kentucky
Kentucky looked great defensively last week, but I think that’s a mirage. Tennessee’s offense under Joey Aguilar has been balanced, efficient, and resilient. Mark Stoops’ Wildcats tend to play in waves – one week they’re locked in, the next they look lifeless.
Coming off that heartbreaking overtime loss to Texas, I expect a flat effort from Kentucky. The Vols have too many weapons to be held under 31.5 points. Expect a bounce-back offensive showcase.
Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week: Alabama -11 at South Carolina
Here it is, my Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week: Alabama -11 on the road at South Carolina.
Yes, the Gamecocks will bring their best effort. When you play Alabama, you always do. But this version of South Carolina just isn’t equipped to compete for four quarters. Their offensive line is crumbling, and once the Tide jump out to a two-score lead, they’ll force Sellers to throw behind that struggling line. That’s when the mistakes pile up.
I’ve watched this South Carolina team closely, and it’s tough to watch – the offense sputters, the defense spends too much time on the field, and it snowballs late. Alabama should control this game start to finish.
Final Card Recap: CFB Week 9
- Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week: Alabama -11 at South Carolina
- South Carolina team total under 16.5
- Ole Miss +5.5 at Oklahoma
- BYU +2.5 at Iowa State
- Cincinnati -3.5 vs Baylor
- Cincinnati/Baylor Over 66.5
- Auburn/Arkansas Over 56.5
- Toledo/Washington State Under 46.5
- Tennessee team total Over 31.5
Referenced odds and lines are subject to change.
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