We’re back for some NFL touchdown picks on Monday Night Football for Vikings-Bills! The 6-1 Vikings host the Bills, and I’m not sure Minnesota’s record tells the whole story.
The Vikings rank second in defensive EPA per play, but their offense sits all the way down at 27th. They’ve also had a manageable draw for much of the season, with Miami, Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay on the schedule, plus a rain-soaked game against Chicago.
You can only play the teams in front of you, but I’m not ready to treat that record as proof Minnesota has everything figured out.
Buffalo has almost the opposite problem. The Bills rank second in offensive EPA per play and 26th defensively. Carson Wentz is expected to start for Minnesota, and against this secondary, I wouldn’t rule out a better night for the Vikings’ passing game. Almost anything has to be an upgrade from what Kyler Murray was giving them.
The point spread sits at 3.5 points with Buffalo as a road favorite at Hard Rock Bet, with the game total sitting at 44. I’m targeting four touchdown angles, including one massive long shot that deserves a very small wager.
Let’s get into my favorite NFL touchdown predictions for Monday, November 9, at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook.
The Best Bills vs. Vikings Touchdown Props for MNF
- Josh Allen -130 Anytime TD
- Justin Jefferson +130 Anytime TD
- Khalil Shakir +325 Anytime TD
- Jackson Hawes +1400 Anytime TD
All referenced odds are subject to change.
MNF Touchdown Pick: Josh Allen (-130)
Brian Flores isn’t going to let Josh Allen spend the evening casually surveying the field.
Minnesota is blitzing at roughly a 74% rate. That’s an absurd amount of pressure, and Allen’s going to have decisions to make when extra defenders come flying toward him.
Sometimes, the answer might be to leave the pocket.
That’s the additional rushing angle I like here. We already know Allen can finish a drive with a quarterback sneak or power his way across the goal line on a designed run. Against this defense, he could also turn a called pass into a scoring opportunity with his legs.
If the initial play breaks down and he finds an escape lane, the next defender has a pretty unpleasant assignment.
Of course, blitzing can also end a drive before Buffalo ever gets close. Minnesota’s defensive efficiency isn’t an accident, and I’m not suggesting every extra rusher creates an easy running lane.
But Allen gives us several ways to cash the same ticket. He can be the planned ball carrier near the goal line or become the runner after the snap.
At -130, I’m willing to pay for that combination against a defense determined to make him improvise.
Monday TD Prediction: Justin Jefferson (+130)
Justin Jefferson has the shortest touchdown odds on Minnesota’s side at +130. That says quite a bit about how oddsmakers view this offense.
I understand the concern, but I’m interested in the possibility that Wentz gives the passing game a lift. Things haven’t exactly been humming with Murray at quarterback, and I don’t think a change automatically makes this a worse situation for Minnesota’s receivers.
Could Wentz make the quarterback conversation more interesting with a strong performance? That’s my speculation, not a declared competition. For this bet, we just need him to give Jefferson a useful opportunity.
Jefferson’s underlying involvement remains strong. He owns a 25% target share and a 32% air-yard share, and I still consider him one of the three best receivers in football.
Buffalo offers a reasonable opponent for a passing-game rebound. The Bills have allowed top-10 rates of both air yards and receptions to opposing offenses this season.
That doesn’t mean Minnesota suddenly turns into an offensive machine. But Jefferson doesn’t need the whole operation to be perfect to win a matchup or finish a drive.
At +130, I’ll take the talent and established role against a secondary that’s been vulnerable.
MNF TD Prop: Khalil Shakir (+325)
If Minnesota keeps sending pressure, Buffalo needs answers that don’t take forever to develop. Khalil Shakir makes sense as one of those answers.
He leads the Bills with a 23% target share on plays when opponents blitz Buffalo this year. That fits how he’s used: get the ball into his hands quickly and let him work.
A bubble screen isn’t always the most exciting play to watch develop, but the appeal changes when the defense has committed extra bodies to chasing the quarterback.
In the right situation, Shakir might only have a defender or two between him and a much bigger gain.
That’s the idea behind this bet. I’m not projecting him to suddenly become Buffalo’s preferred goal-line target. I’m looking at a player Allen has already leaned on against pressure, facing a defense that brings it at an extraordinary rate.
The first part is earning the target. The next part is making someone miss. At +325, Shakir gives us a reasonably priced way to bet on Buffalo turning Minnesota’s aggression against it.
MNF Long-Shot Touchdown Pick: Jackson Hawes (+1400)
Now, let’s get weird.
Jackson Hawes is +1400 to score, and there are very obvious reasons for that number. He’s run a route on just 23% of Buffalo’s passing plays and rarely gets targeted.
But look at where he’s playing.
Hawes has been on the field for 22 of Buffalo’s 26 offensive snaps inside the 5-yard line this season.
Yes, the Bills like him as a blocker. That’s the primary explanation, and pretending otherwise would miss the point.
He’s still an eligible pass catcher standing in the part of the field where one little play-action fake can turn into a big cash for us.
Against Minnesota’s pressure, Buffalo could also choose to use bigger personnel packages. That’s just my speculation, but it creates a plausible setting for Hawes to slip out while defenders focus on everyone else.
We’re asking for a very specific outcome from a player who gets very few receiving chances. The odds reflect that. Still, at 14-1, I can make a tiny wager on Buffalo finding one creative way to involve someone who’s consistently on the field near the goal line.
Good luck with all of your MNF touchdown bets! Play responsibly, especially with these longer-odds props – keep the speculative plays appropriately sized.
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