No. 17 Florida vs. No. 3 Georgia Picks, Predictions & Preview

Georgia and Florida renew their rivalry Saturday afternoon at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The No. 3 Bulldogs and No. 17 Gators kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

This series has been played 103 or 104 times, depending on which team’s history books you trust. These two teams hate each other so much that they can’t even agree on how many times they’ve played.

It’s a matchup that’s rarely a snoozer, and one that’s seen Georgia win five straight and eight of the last 10.

When you dive into the history of this rivalry, it’s a very streaky series. It’s rarely a case of trading wins back and forth. It all depends on what era you’re in.

And right now, we’ve been in the Kirby Smart era. There’s no doubt about that.

Does Jon Sumrall change that? That’s the question Florida has to answer this week and moving forward.

Buster Faulkner’s History Against Georgia

We’ve watched Buster Faulkner’s offense against this Georgia defense for the last three years, and there have been significant adjustments by Glenn Schumann and his crew.

Georgia has gotten the better of Buster in the win-loss column. There’s no doubt about that. He’s lost the last three matchups, but it hasn’t come without a bit of a sweat.

Last year, Georgia controlled him quite a bit, but on the first possession, Georgia Tech walked the ball down the field and got into field goal position after starting at its own five-yard line.

Had it not been for Ellis Robinson’s interception toward the end of that football game, things could’ve gotten really hairy.

Obviously, Georgia Tech took Georgia to eight overtimes the year before that, and put up 35 points in the 2023 matchup. They had tremendous opening drives in that football game as well.

It hasn’t come without a little bit of holding your breath when Buster’s offense has faced this defense.

He seems to have somewhat of their number from an offensive performance standpoint.

Can Florida’s Defense Get to Stockton?

I think Florida’s defense is going to have to figure out how to solve its defensive back problems by getting pressure on the quarterback and rattling the cage of Gunner Stockton.

The only problem is that he’s been sacked eight times all year. That’s not a bunch.

This system has gotten the ball out of his hands really quickly. He seems to understand when you’re blitzing and where you’re blitzing from. The protections are really, really clean.

They also do a great job booting this guy and getting him out on the edges.

It’s really hard to sack him and get him impacted by rush lanes at this point.

For that matter, I’d be relatively scared if I were Florida’s defense – that we’re going to go back to being the worst passing defense in the conference right about now.

History says it’s very unlikely that you’re just going to sack this guy five or six times in one football game.

Stockton Needs a Clean Performance

I think the X-factor has got to be Gunner Stockton in a potential bounce-back football game.

They don’t need him to play like a Heisman contender to win this football game – I don’t believe that.

But he certainly can’t be turnover-prone like he was the last time out against Auburn.

That’s the thing I’m paying attention to.

If he plays the standard Gunner Stockton football game, 20-27 for 246 yards, Georgia rolls.

Georgia vs. Florida Prediction: Bulldogs Survive Another Close One

I think Florida is going to have success moving the football.

I think Buster Faulkner schematically knows Georgia very well, and there are holes where you can attack Georgia’s defense.

I also think Georgia’s defense has been forcing turnovers and getting after the quarterback at a much higher rate than it has in the last two years.

Give me Georgia forcing two turnovers in the green zone.

You heard it here first, unless it doesn’t happen: I’ve got Georgia winning 31-24.

It’s a 31-17 football game with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter.