Let’s take a look at LSU vs. Auburn for an 11 a.m. local kickoff inside Jordan-Hare Stadium. A little Tiger-on-Tiger matchup right here.
First question I have for you: Was last week’s Auburn win over Georgia a blip on the radar, or is this a “Now we go” type of situation?
Can Auburn Carry Its Momentum Into LSU?
Auburn has some things it does very well. Byrum Brown’s ability to use his legs has obviously been the heart of this offense, and that’s not something that just disappears. He’s not suddenly going to become less difficult to tackle.
It’s not like he’s going to lose two inches, 30 pounds, and half a second on his 40-yard dash. This guy is always going to be 6-foot-3 and a half, 238 pounds, and a 23-mph athlete who can stop on a dime. That’s not going to get easier to tackle. It’s still going to be a problem.
You’re always going to have a quarterback running game. At home, you’re always going to have a raucous environment. Defensively, Elijah Melendez is always going to be thumping. D.J. Durkin is always going to be throwing the kitchen sink.
There’s a lot that Auburn did against Georgia that’s going to carry over into this football game. What you can’t bank on, though, is getting three extra possessions.
You also have to wonder whether Auburn’s offensive line will perform the way it did against Georgia every week. Was that a legitimate step forward, or was it an uptick that’s going to regress back toward the mean?
I don’t think the things that make Auburn dangerous suddenly disappear.
Auburn Will Be Without Xavier Atkins
One other thing worth mentioning is that Xavier Atkins has been permanently dismissed from the Auburn football team.
When I first heard some of the reports, I thought it was a little weird. Why are y’all getting rid of your best football player? However, from what I’ve been told, the situation was worse than I initially thought.
I was told it got to the point where the team wanted him gone. So this wasn’t simply a coach trying to establish a new culture or set a different tone.
From what I was told, it was a situation where a significant portion of the team felt something needed to change.
LSU vs. Auburn Keys to the Game
Let’s get back to Jordan-Hare. It’s an 11 a.m. local kickoff, but that place is going to be rocking Saturday. Absolutely rocking.
And if you don’t know, Sam Leavitt is 0-3 in SEC stadiums on the road. He hasn’t played in anything quite like this. No offense, Ole Miss. That was a crazy environment, and you guys did a great job. I’d put it up there with Jordan-Hare on Saturday at 11 o’clock.
We’re talking about roughly 90,000 people in one of the wildest environments in college football. This ain’t Kentucky. This ain’t Mississippi State. And Leavitt hasn’t won on the road in one of these environments yet. I know it’s a small sample size. It’s only three games.
How about a larger sample size? Lane Kiffin is currently 13-17 on the road in the SEC as a head football coach. Those aren’t great numbers. LSU is going to have to overcome some of that this weekend.
The quarterback has also been a turnover machine throughout the season, outside of when he’s playing at home against a relatively poor defense like he was a week ago.
I’m very curious to see how LSU handles those circumstances. The road records. The turnover margins. And an Auburn team that believes it has new life.
How Many Turnovers Can LSU Survive?
Where’s the line? How many turnovers can LSU survive and still win? One? Two? Three?
They lost to Kentucky with two turnovers and lost on the final play of the game on a two-point conversion. If Sam Leavitt turns the football over four times, I think LSU loses by two scores.
LSU Has to Win on First and Second Down
When you’re playing a quarterback who runs this much and is this difficult to tackle, you have to be great on first and second down. If you’re not, and Auburn gets into third-and-four, particularly once the Tigers get into plus territory, you’re probably not getting off the field.
They’re going to be in four-down territory. They’re going to run the quarterback twice. He’s going to fall forward or run through somebody’s face for a first down. And now you’ve got to start all over again trying to get off the field.
So first- and second-down success is paramount for LSU and Blake Baker.
LSU X-Factor: TJ Dottery
My X-factor for LSU is TJ Dottery. If you’re going to play against a quarterback like Byrum Brown, you need a linebacker who can keep pace with him and actually get him on the ground.
That’s the ultimate key to stopping this Auburn offense.
We’ve already seen some great linebackers try to tackle Brown. They can’t. So it’s a tall task for anybody right now.
Does Alex Golesh Have More Tricks Up His Sleeve?
I’m not just talking about the halfback pass against Georgia. That was a gutsy call on second-and-seven in plus territory. Auburn had other tendency breakers in the quarterback running game that Georgia simply hadn’t accounted for. Now those plays are on tape.
You would assume Blake Baker and his defensive staff have gone through them in practice, understand what they look like, and are prepared for them.
Those were rabbits pulled out of the hat in critical situations. The fourth-and-two shovel pass. The quarterback counter bounce they hit in the red zone for a touchdown. Those are the types of plays that can change a football game.
Even when you’re prepared for them, it’s hard enough to get Byrum Brown on the ground. If Auburn comes out with another look LSU hasn’t seen yet, that’s when explosive runs happen. That’s when pivotal plays happen.
How many more of those things can Golesh get to? I think he’s one of the more creative wide-choice offensive coaches we’ve seen in a while.
When you watched Golesh at South Florida, they were doing things within that wide-choice offense that other teams simply weren’t doing. Particularly in the screen game and the quarterback running game.
How many more wrinkles does he have? That’s something I’m watching closely.
LSU vs. Auburn Predictions
My bold prediction is that there will be five total turnovers in this football game.
When it comes to picking a winner, I really want to go with Auburn.
- Final Score Prediction: Auburn 24, LSU 21
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